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Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Amped

Amped

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Amped said:

Wow looks like the blizzard of 96 at H5 at 234.  Don't know why the precip is tucked along the carolina coast.

Few I was getting impatient, got our 20-30". I forgot how slow things are in March. It  took almost 84 hrs from the time you saw the SW ridge start to separate the trailing SW in TX and the time it finally started snowing.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
5 hours ago, stormtracker said:
There's an L where the L is supposed to be and an H where the H is supposed to be.   Odd.

Kinda but left is right and right is left still ie the ns bias gfs says lets do the stj dominance dance and "the king" says nope....lets focus on the ns. 10 days our....we know how this song and dance will end.

shall we call you JI part deuce....

you sure sound like you've been training with him lately

^_^

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted

Looking over the overnight runs of the GFS and Euro suites and the day 3/4 is on life support and that is probably generous. Though we have seen some improvement with some secondary aspects of the setup the two key things we need to happen for any chance just aren't showing up. We need the closed low at 500 to run, at worst, through our region if not preferably south. So far we have seen that feature consistently projected to our north through PA. Second, we need the secondary surface low that forms off the coast to hang back long enough and close enough to the coast where there can be interaction between it and the 500 closed low as it swings through. We need this to occur because the cold needed would have to be manufactured by ***dynamic cooling. But what we are seeing is the coastal low is now racing out in front of the closed low and OTS. All the other secondary improvements that we have seen mean squat unless the 2 above mentioned items occur. Now there may be a wild card thrown into the mix. There are indications that a secondary coastal low tries to develop as the first coastal runs OTS. At this point about the only way I could see this working for us if it did occur is if we see enough separation between it and the first coastal but at this point that doesn't look likely.

We have known for awhile that this was a Hail Mary type deal so it should come as no surprise if this fails. Clocks ticking, so barring seeing any positive changes with the above two features or a significant shifting of the general overall setup in the next day of runs I will probably be calling time of death shortly.

 

***Dynamic Cooling: Thought I would go over this term in very simplistic terms for those who are not aware of what this means. I quite often refer to it as dragging and/or transporting cold to the lower levels of the atmosphere from the colder upper levels. Well this isn't totally accurate but I use it anyway because I am generally lazy and it conveys a general sense of what is occurring without all the typing involved in explaining it.

Quite often you hear we need the heavier rates (precip) to move the cold air downwards. But there is actually very little if any physically forcing of the cold air downwards by the precip. Instead there are two other things happening. First cooling is occurring in progressively lower levels as snow produced in the upper levels falls into the warmer layers. As it hits these warmer layers it melts and in the process it is taking heat out of the air. Once that warm level is cooled enough the snow is able to reach lower levels before melting. This process moves downward as each warm layer cools to below freezing. Now we also have another process occurring as well.  The precip occurring is caused by lifting of air in the lower levels upward. This process lowers the pressures at lower levels. Air reacts to different pressures by heating up when compressed and cooling down as pressures lessen. So in the above case lower pressures means a cooling of the air. So this is why in a dynamic cooling situation you want better rates. This means more snow falling cooling the lower levels quicker and it means that we have a more rapid movement of the air upward creating even lower pressures and greater cooling.

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