Wonderdog Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: It does. Forget what I said. Let it when it needs to. Just give some good obs from PWC and I will drink at the airport and give obs from my barstool. You got it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: It may sit off Hatteras just for you a day or so .lol Boondoggle eh, you must work for the government. Indeed. Heading to Tucson. Marvelous this time of year if you like warm weather and sun. Torture if you are a dude like me who watches their light post waiting for first flakes at 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Indeed. Heading to Tucson. Marvelous this time of year if you like warm weather and sun. Torture if you are a dude like me who watches their light post waiting for first flakes at 2am A few pops at the airport will produce your own flakes over the tarmac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Didn't @psuhoffman mention the analogs of a few successful March storms where the PAC was hostile but the -NAO was great? I'm not sure why people say "the Pacific is terrible" I'm not even always sure what they mean. Is that the EPO or the WPO or the PNA of is that just a blanket statement for anything that doesn't result in a trough in the east? the EPO is going to be negate for instance. But I've seen some evidence that in march a very -epo and nao linked and combined isn't necessarily a good thing. Leads to a strong NW trough which pops a ridge in the east. That's what's happening now. Later on the epo relaxes which pulls the trough back and thus allows the ridge to retrograde and we can get something to dig into the east. If that's a better Pacific ok. All these parts both up and downstream are influencing and interacting with each other. I see it as one big fluid dance not a bunch of independent parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Disappointing 18zgefs compared to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'm not sure why people say "the Pacific is terrible" I'm not even always sure what they mean. Is that the EPO or the WPO or the PNA of is that just a blanket statement for anything that doesn't result in a trough in the east? the EPO is going to be negate for instance. But I've seen some evidence that in march a very -epo and nao linked and combined isn't necessarily a good thing. Leads to a strong NW trough which pops a ridge in the east. That's what's happening now. Later on the epo relaxes which pulls the trough back and thus allows the ridge to retrograde and we can get something to dig into the east. If that's a better Pacific ok. All these parts both up and downstream are influencing and interacting with each other. I see it as one big fluid dance not a bunch of independent parts. In my limited intellect a less than ideal PAC is one that doesn’t result in a trough in the east. A good PAC would be one that allows a ridge that peaks in Idaho maybe and allows something to develop close to our coast. I know that deep trough in the wrong location means storms develop to the east. And I know it’s more fluid than that. I think what I really mean is a good western US. The PAC is too broad a term to say bad or good. I see your point at I type this. A good western US like hour 234 on the op 18z. I will refrain from generalizing the PAC because it’s not correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Disappointing 18zgefs compared to 12z. In what way? (I'm still learning what the reds and the blues mean...lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In what way? (I'm still learning what the reds and the blues mean...lol) This looks workable to me just as the NAO relaxes with slight ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 what do the SREF say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In what way? (I'm still learning what the reds and the blues mean...lol) 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: This looks workable to me just as the NAO relaxes with slight ridging out west. It's workable but 12z was a little diggier with more amped up storms. I thought both the 12z gefs and EPS were good and maybe corner turners but as JI points out all year whenever we get a positive step and need just one more to really get good things take a step the wrong way. This is minor though. I'm nitpicking an 18z run. 0z could easily go all weenie on us. Or either the gfs or euro ops spit out one of those HECS ensemble solutions and get everyone excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: what do the SREF say? Delaware sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: This looks workable to me just as the NAO relaxes with slight ridging out west. I think it does too. But there is no 50/50 and the trough is too positively tilted and progressive to give us something good. Needs to dig more SW but not so much it cuts west. The result of that as depicted is a dry NW flow unless a NS system can get under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think it does too. But there is no 50/50 and the trough is too positively tilted and progressive to give us something good. Needs to dig more SW but not so much it cuts west. The result of that as depicted is a dry NW flow unless a NS system can get under us. Cut something onshore through Seattle and follow the isobars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 L 38 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It does. Forget what I said. Let it when it needs to. Just give some good obs from PWC and I will drink at the airport and give obs from my barstool. Now that’s the spirit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Cut something onshore through Seattle and follow the isobars. Sure. But wouldn’t that just dry out over the Rockies follow the trough and then exit somewhere on the EC without doing much. Unless it can dig SW to the TN valley and head NE from there without losing the 850s and grab some moisture from the gulf. I don’t really know. I’ve seen it snow when it shouldn’t and not snow when it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's workable but 12z was a little diggier with more amped up storms. I thought both the 12z gefs and EPS were good and maybe corner turners but as JI points out all year whenever we get a positive step and need just one more to really get good things take a step the wrong way. This is minor though. I'm nitpicking an 18z run. 0z could easily go all weenie on us. Or either the gfs or euro ops spit out one of those HECS ensemble solutions and get everyone excited. I'm in watch and wait mode and haven't been looking to close at long lead stuff. We still need things to play out with the first system before getting into details with the next one in line. Having storms track into canada to our NW is problematic because we wont get a good cold push behind them. It has the general feel that a good storm track would still not work well for my yard. I have a hunch we get a good MA storm but closer to the cities are going to struggle with ptype and surface temps. Could break in any direction so I'm not making at kind of call. Just having a gut instinct that we end up having a good event north and west of town but my yard ends up in between good snows and all rain. Just a guess for now but an educated one based on how things seem to be progressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 With blocking that strong, models likely aren't digging enough yet imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm in watch and wait mode and haven't been looking to close at long lead stuff. We still need things to play out with the first system before getting into details with the next one in line. Having storms track into canada to our NW is problematic because we wont get a good cold push behind them. It has the general feel that a good storm track would still not work well for my yard. I have a hunch we get a good MA storm but closer to the cities are going to struggle with ptype and surface temps. Could break in any direction so I'm not making at kind of call. Just having a gut instinct that we end up having a good event north and west of town but my yard ends up in between good snows and all rain. Just a guess for now but an educated one based on how things seem to be progressing. Your gut says no dice for the corridor...HM's gut says significant storm (although he obviously didn't say any detail beyond that).....Hope your gut is wrong, because half of this forum is gonna have a meltdown if that happens. Mercy...its been way too long! (But I too will be skeptical all the way up until 48 hrs...and probably even then, lol Although you know between now and then some weenie runs are about to be thrown in there!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 30 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: This looks workable to me just as the NAO relaxes with slight ridging out west. Another record breaking mid latitude ridge >582 Pacific, has showed up a few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 8 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: With blocking that strong, models likely aren't digging enough yet imo. Trend this year is for stronger storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 lol blizzard incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Low isn't going out to sea with this Tropical Atlantic ridge.. not this one or the one after it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 GFS 198hrs, looks nice at H5 over New Mexico, Cold front maybe too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 *monitors gfs at hours > 200 very closely* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 What do you call whats causing that little blob of precip in the panhandle of texas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Uh oh...seeing some thangs on the GFS...could be good. I'm talking the 200+ hour storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Wow looks like the blizzard of 96 at H5 at 234. Don't know why the precip is tucked along the carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 ok its best we dont even look at this. gonna look completely different tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Something's about to go boom on the GFS...not sure about the airmass tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 oh god its moving so slowly, im about to pitch a fantasy tent. the euro was on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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