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Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion


Ji

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6 minutes ago, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:
That low in cancun on gfs definitely gonna come up the coast  in 10 days

Lol a low actually popped of the va coast

I like the look on the GFS from the 6th through the 10th. A lot of moisture running along the golf coast during that time period. The ull near the great lakes is squashing everything but place that more north and east and something could amplify and run the coast.

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That look on the later part of the op is the look I dread seeing.  High pressure moving off the coast as a wave of warmth heads east.  You know that high wants to become a SE ridge.  A big fat one.
Way different pattern but somehow we still have South East Ridge cutters and warmth
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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
That look on the later part of the op is the look I dread seeing.  High pressure moving off the coast as a wave of warmth heads east.  You know that high wants to become a SE ridge.  A big fat one.

Way different pattern but somehow we still have South East Ridge cutters and warmth

We live in the wrong part of the world! Time for a move to Garrett county!

 

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22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Cherry pick your fav and hug it for dear life. Something for everyone in there. Lol

Work with the means, party with the outliers, but stay away from #12.

It partied way to hard, blacked out while it was 50 and rain, and somehow woke up with 3' of snow.

 

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36 minutes ago, Ji said:
55 minutes ago, BristowWx said:
That look on the later part of the op is the look I dread seeing.  High pressure moving off the coast as a wave of warmth heads east.  You know that high wants to become a SE ridge.  A big fat one.

Way different pattern but somehow we still have South East Ridge cutters and warmth

Yeah....but maybe it’s wrong.  We might have just put too much emphasis on the NAO.  PAC just isn’t right.  Bad timing or whatever and we don’t have time for it to correct.  

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48 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

We live in the wrong part of the world! Time for a move to Garrett county!

 

Yeah need to go north or up in elevation.  Still think something will break in our favor.  If not winter ended ended really early this year even by our standards.  

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38 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah....but maybe it’s wrong.  We might have just put too much emphasis on the NAO.  PAC just isn’t right.  Bad timing or whatever and we don’t have time for it to correct.  

Didn't @psuhoffman mention the analogs of a few successful March storms where the PAC was hostile but the -NAO was great?

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14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Yeah need to go north or up in elevation.  Still think something will break in our favor.  If not winter ended ended really early this year even by our standards.  

This doesn't look half bad to me. I agree with you  Bristow. Something will break right for us believers in PWC and it looks to be around March 8th!!

 

gfs_z500aNorm_us_40.pngith you Bristow; something will break right for us this winter for us believers in PWC and it looks to be around March 8th!!

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

This doesn't look half bad to me. I agree with you  Bristow. Something will break right for us believers in PWC and it looks to be around March 8th!!

 

gfs_z500aNorm_us_40.pngith you Bristow; something will break right for us this winter for us believers in PWC and it looks to be around March 8th!!

Can it be March 9th or 10th?  That’s when I get home from my current boondoggle.  I’d like to land at IAD under a WSW.  

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

Compare this look from the 12z run yesterday. Much improved to my untrained eye at 18z tonight, mentioned supra.

It does.  Forget what I said.  Let it when it needs to.  Just give some good obs from PWC and I will drink at the airport and give obs from my barstool.  

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