Interstate Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's not, so maybe...but its closer in time AND pretty locked in universally on guidance so while I am not ruling out a shift our better hope right now IMO is for it to evolve the way we need it to AFTER that ugly look a week from now. I am not punting the first week of March because I want to...I am punting because its 4th and 10 on my own 20 yard line with 2:30 left with 3 timeouts and my better chance is to hope my defense can hold and get me the ball back one last time. It is March and you have the Browns defense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: we probably wont have deep cold like we did a few marchs ago where we got 8 inches of powder.....so without deep cold...a normal snowstorm will never stick....so basically we are in the position where its HECS or bust I kind of agree with this...with the caveot that a strong storm could lead to a few inches of wet snow like the late March 84 bomb did NW of the cities. But it will take a dynamic storm probably with marginal cold in mid march. But this is a pattern that can create such a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: It is March and you have the Browns defense. and you still have to punt the ball... odds are your going to lose that game no matter what you do... odds are we arent going to win here no matter what...just saying IMO our better chance is that it evolves towards a better look after March 7th not praying all the models are really wrong with the look day 5-7. Hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: and you still have to punt the ball... odds are your going to lose that game no matter what you do... odds are we arent going to win here no matter what...just saying IMO our better chance is that it evolves towards a better look after March 7th not praying all the models are really wrong with the look day 5-7. Hope I am wrong. if we don't count March its really only 7 months until we start hunting again...8 months until serious tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 People need to have realistic expectations also. Anyone thinking we are getting some kind of epic finish to erase all the pain before is going to be let down. What's done is done. We are Like a 2-10 team heading into December just trying to win the last few games to save the coaches job at this point. We're not making the playoffs. Even those "epic" march blocking years we throw around like 1958, 1962, 1965, 1969, 1999 the 95 corridor didn't get epic totals. Most of the big storms those years were only 4-8" in the cities (less at DCA) and the 10" plus was nw of the fall line. Anyone in the urban corridor that wouldn't be thrilled with a 4" wet snow paste event out of this might as well stop and just move on because that's what we're tracking realistically here. The chance of more then that is so remote as to be not worry considering it. If the miracle happens then so be it. For those of us NW maybe a bit more is possible but again JI if your not happy if leesburg gets a 6" wet snow thump then your just setting yourself up for pain. Stop trying to win December to February. We lost those games. We're just trying to win march now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: People need to have realistic expectations also. Anyone thinking we are getting some kind of epic finish to erase all the pain before is going to be let down. What's done is done. We are Like a 2-10 team heading into December just trying to win the last few games to save the coaches job at this point. We're not making the playoffs. Even those "epic" march blocking years we throw around like 1958, 1962, 1965, 1969, 1999 the 95 corridor didn't get epic totals. Most of the big storms those years were only 4-8" in the cities (less at DCA) and the 10" plus was nw of the fall line. Anyone in the urban corridor that wouldn't be thrilled with a 4" wet snow paste event out of this might as well stop and just move on because that's what we're tracking realistically here. The chance of more then that is so remote as to be not worry considering it. If the miracle happens then so be it. For those of us NW maybe a bit more is possible but again JI if your not happy if leesburg gets a 6" wet snow thump then your just setting yourself up for pain. Stop trying to win December to February. We lost those games. We're just trying to win march now. 4 inches would be fine with me... I could actually go sledding with my kids for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Looking at the GEFS mean the day 9 thing doesn't look half bad but it's hard to tell by just the mean. A question for someone with acess to individual members . How do they look? Any decent hits in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: 4 inches would be fine with me... I could actually go sledding with my kids for once. You beat me to it! Any one of us would take 4" any time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Pretty exciting storm. How many times have we had a 970s mb low off the Delmarva coast? The pattern after that is fine. -PNA is in a phase out part of cycle. March 6-8 looks interesting When there is a strong +Atlantic ridge DJF (this winter was +30% of normal) the March pattern is above normal precip everywhere in the US in an average of +11/-11(22) years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 16 minutes ago, BristowWx said: if we don't count March its really only 7 months until we start hunting again...8 months until serious tracking. But why stop now? If you tracked all through this lousy winter why stop about a week from the finish line. Realistically if we get through the next week and the better look March 10-15 deteriorates then it's over and time to put it to bed. But why run the whole marathon then stop 100 yards from the finish line? Suck it up and gut out the home stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Well said @psuhoffman We're basically out of the game for climo. Unless we get a freak March HECS, that is completely off the table. I'm pretty sure many of us would be happy with 2" of wet snow at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: Well said @psuhoffman We're basically out of the game for climo. Unless we get a freak March HECS, that is completely off the table. I'm pretty sure many of us would be happy with 2" of wet snow at this point. no we wouldnt. nobody would be happy with 2 inches of wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: You beat me to it! Any one of us would take 4" any time! JI... eskimojoe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, Ji said: no we wouldnt. nobody would be happy with 2 inches of wet snow You sure about that? We had quite the long thread for 2" of wet snow just a week and a half ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: JI... id take 4 inches but it would be a severe letdown. Based on this historic nature of this blocking,etc....i was setting my self up for a 18-30 inch storm in the burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: You sure about that? We had quite the long thread for 2" of wet snow just a week and a half ago its fun when it happens but afterwards....it just leaves you wanting for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: no we wouldnt. nobody would be happy with 2 inches of wet snow Not sure I would be ecstatic... but it is par for the course this year no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: id take 4 inches but it would be a severe letdown. Based on this historic nature of this blocking,etc....i was setting my self up for a 18-30 inch storm in the burbs So you were expecting something that has only happened a few times in 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Look at this way. This is probably IT! I mean, we have this last window for the year. As of now, at least it is still open even if it is only a bit more than a crack. If we fail, the season is over, Accuwx subscription expires, I get out the fishing gear (ok that is already out) - You get the idea. At least there is a chance. You go into hibernation @ji We start looking for severe next! (ok we always do.. but that is what is next) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So you were expecting something that has only happened a few times in 100 years. yea....the block was historic right? the analagos were historic(57,60,62,2001)...why would i dream of a 2-4 inch event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 6 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Look at this way. This is probably IT! I mean, we have this last window for the year. As of now, at least it is still open even if it is only a bit more than a crack. If we fail, the season is over, Accuwx subscription expires, I get out the fishing gear (ok that is already out) - You get the idea. At least there is a chance. You go into hibernation @ji We start looking for severe next! (ok we always do.. but that is what is next) i like severe...would never spend a second tracking it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 52 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Looking at the GEFS mean the day 9 thing doesn't look half bad but it's hard to tell by just the mean. A question for someone with acess to individual members . How do they look? Any decent hits in there? There is a signal for the nw 1/3 of our region. Lots of snowy solutions for that period there. Not much se of the fall line. But a big change from last run. Most of this is from the day 8-10 period. Last run same time below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 this march has amazing potential. Im back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Any takers?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 lol @ D9 euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Any takers?! Nice blocking, the 987mb low over Lake SP the previous frame. Trying to pull a blizzard of 1888. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol @ D9 euro The same period the GFS lost for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 this march has amazing potential. Im back LMBO....too funny . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The same period the GFS lost for now. This is the same time frame I was wondering about on the GEFS. @psuhoffman responded to my question further up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Snow maps should be epic. King Euro is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.