Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, it has come to this.   We're down to "all the data hasn't made it onshore yet".  

 

I mean he’s keeping it real at least. I think we still have lots of options on the table. Obviously fail has more weight with this crew, but I’ve seen crazier things happen...

[MD Snow]

GFS has trended weaker and further south and east with the primary over the last couple runs for the Friday deal. I'm not expecting snow in the MA but it will be interesting to see how far south we can get this thing. 

[Chris78]

4 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

GFS has trended weaker and further south and east with the primary over the last couple runs for the Friday deal. I'm not expecting snow in the MA but it will be interesting to see how far south we can get this thing. 

I noticed that too. I doubt it makes  difference for us for Friday but after that who knows. I think anything is still on the table starting next week.

[BristowWx]

Well its much colder at 850 compared to previous runs for the 2-3 March dealy.  no precip that I can see. I guess that's something. 

[Interstate]

The first storm is moving out a lot quicker at H120

[BristowWx]

we need one of those "willing a storm west" deals to get this 2-3 March storm closer.  we have done this before with decent results. 

[Amped]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Well its much colder at 850 compared to previous runs for the 2-3 March dealy.  no precip that I can see. I guess that's something. 

Shoots east much faster this run.

[Amped]

CMC is even faster than the GFS  Big changes this run, but not going to give us snow unless you count the rainbow sprinkles we get from the Norlun.

[stormtracker]

Well the GFS is back with the 3 contour upper low moving SE

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Well the GFS is back with the 3 contour upper low moving SE

and has shifted the SL about 500 miles southeast at 162

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Interstate said:

and has shifted the SL about 500 miles southeast at 162

Doesn't look like it will matter, but the changes every 6 hours at h5 is kind comical.  

[Amped]

It's hard to get a good east coast storm when the 50/50 low is way too far south. We need the jet entrance region off New England. Having it over the Bahamas does no good.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Doesn't look like it will matter, but the changes every 6 hours at h5 is kind comical.  

low in the Great Lakes....why not.    it does always seem to be some thing that gives us a little head kick.  get one parameter a little better and bam! hit on the other side.  its just good fun. 

[psuhoffman]

I like the ggem setup day 10 for the 10-15 period.  Trough axis finally right with energy diving down the rockies.  We might just have to wait for this to evolve... and hope that the blocking holds long enough and that its not too late to be cold enough when things finally get right. 

[stormtracker]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I like the ggem setup day 10 for the 10-15 period.  Trough axis finally right with energy diving down the rockies.  We might just have to wait for this to evolve... and hope that the blocking holds long enough and that its not too late to be cold enough when things finally get right. 

Not me, I'm done.   I admire the rest of you that can keep taking this beat down and continue on.  God bless ye

[Amped]

Okay that looks better, maybe a surface low coming out of the gulf on future runs, if the first storm gets out of the way.

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I like the ggem setup day 10 for the 10-15 period.  Trough axis finally right with energy diving down the rockies.  We might just have to wait for this to evolve... and hope that the blocking holds long enough and that its not too late to be cold enough when things finally get right. 

Yeah but that UL position in the upper Midwest is squash city. GFS tries to get it out of the way in time, but doesn’t get it done. I’m fairly pessimistic.

[Ji]

We blew a historic block before it even started. We are laughably pathetic

[Ji]

We have hp diving south again even in a new pattern

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

That post from HM has me thinking...This is kind of a running thinking out loud thing so sorry if its all over the place. 2006 was a total dud... and 1958 was a dud during the first half of March when that analog is from...it got really good after the 10th but that was because the blocking held long enough and things got right eventually.  (that's our hope this year maybe) And 1962 had one kind of fluky storm honestly but otherwise was a total dud.  It had blocking the rest of the month and managed nothing anywhere in the east. (but I think BEFORE that 1962 storm is a better analog to right now anyways and I will explain why later.)  That was because it also featured an AK vortex that flooded the CONUS with mild air and so blocking or not there was no cold to work with the second half of the month.   So perhaps that look of extreme EPO and NAO ridging isnt a good one in March.  I can't say for sure why but the EPO ridge will force a downstream trough and given the shorter wavelengths this time of year that trough might naturally end up in the Pacific NW and not bleed east as much as during January and early Feb.  Add to that such an extreme NAO block would suppress any 50/50 and thus open the door even more for ridging to pop up the east coast.  I can picture in my mind how that combo or things could end up going wrong.  And it seems to have gone wrong all 3 times it happened in the past AND looks like it might again this time.

So why did I say BEFORE the Ash Wednesday storm was a better analog to 1962...well even though the short term analogs look very close around the day of the storm itself to this week... if you look at the entire pattern evolution the blocking in 1962 started well before that storm and seems to have gone through a similar progression as we are having this week only it was a week sooner in Late February in 1962. 

Look at this 3 day mean centered  A WEEK BEFORE the ash wed storm which wast until the 6/7th.

That looks really familiar.  If you adjust everything west just a little bit its almost exactly what we are dealing with right now.  That didn't give them a big storm in 1962...it lead to a big storm a week AFTER that.  The analog to the storm this week isn't a good one in terms of pattern progression.  If we can get something to dig into the trough 5/6 days after that would be a better match. 

The 1958 analog also didn't feature snow during the period where the EPO ridge and NAO ridge were both at 3std and linked but later lead to an event.  2006 it seems the pattern broke down before anything could come of it. 

Look at what 1962 and 1958 did look like when the big storm finally hit

Ash Wed storm

March 58

Notice on both the NAO ridge is still going ape but its no longer linked to an off the charts EPO ridge. The backing off of the EPO in both cases meant the corresponding trough backed off the Pac NW and was weaker allowing more trough to dig into the east easier. 

Here is a way it worked going the other way...1960 featured blocking before this period too...so again no storm at the start of the period, but when we did get a big storm early March it was the NAO that backed off.  The EPO was going ape but with a weaker NAO ridge allowing the 50/50 to really go nuts further west and thus prevent ridging into the northeast...and so that negative in the PAC NW is going to be forced to dig into the east and we get a HECS.

I think this implies that the combo of an off the charts strong EPO and NAO together is actually not a good look in March.  I know that cherry picking these few examples isnt enough to claim statistical significance but its worth considering IMO.  The good news is in a few of these cases the pattern did evolve from where we are now into one for snow a week later.  BUT....we are running out of time.  I am not blind to that fact.  But we might yet still get our shot...just later then we thought or wanted it to be. 

Thoughts, comments, refutations, additions are welcome...like I said this was kind of just a running thread of consciousness and I am interested in what anyone else has to add or if I am off my rocker here please let me know lol. 

I like the week after idea too as the -NAO weakens.

[Wonderdog]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

We have hp diving south again even in a new pattern

New pattern same as the old pattern. Big SE ridge showing up.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yeah but that UL position in the upper Midwest is squash city. GFS tries to get it out of the way in time, but doesn’t get it done. I’m fairly pessimistic.

I think were looking at different threats...for the day 9/10 one yes but the GGEM looks to be setting something up later.. right now I think if something does happen it will be towards March 10-15th.  The more I look at past blocks like this with both an off the charts EPO and NAO and the timeframe for how they evolved that is when the snow threat was. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

We blew a historic block before it even started. We are laughably pathetic

More like an historic -NAO pulse that that gets sucked into a ML ridge and then rapidly disintegrates. Beyond that, seeing less indication of legit blocking setting up with each op run of the GFS. 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not me, I'm done.   I admire the rest of you that can keep taking this beat down and continue on.  God bless ye

I am not saying you should track... its only worth it if you enjoy it, but this "beat down" is just how it goes.  Our climo is to get some epic hits every few years and LONG stretches of crap in between.  Some of those crap years we luck our way into 1 or 2 decent events and avoid absolute failure, others luck isnt with us and we go down in flames but that is what 70% of our winters are like so If I stopped tracking everytime we didn't have one of those years I would be tossing this hobby most years.  I enjoy it too much, even in years we don't get snow I still enjoy tracking.  Those that dont enjoy the chase...probably should stop as its just not helping their mental health. 

[psuhoffman]

The pattern the next 8 days is NOT the same as what was shown on the EPS and GEFS a week ago that had myself and chill excited.  A week ago both were showing the blocking centered better with a strong indication of a 50/50 low.  But this is now what it actually looks like...and why its wrong.

So IF that is now correct...where we need to go from there to get to a favorable look is once that negative in the Pacific NW slides east and gets east of our Latitude the guidance does suggest things finally could get right.  below

both the atlantic AND pacific look better there.  Of course its 12 days away so no idea if its right BUT that is how the pattern eventually evolved in 1958 and 1962 with similar blocking earlier with similar fail results UNTIL things got to that look up there a week or two later. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern the next 8 days is NOT the same as what was shown on the EPS and GEFS a week ago that had myself and chill excited.  A week ago both were showing the blocking centered better with a strong indication of a 50/50 low.  But this is now what it actually looks like...and why its wrong.

So IF that is now correct...where we need to go from there to get to a favorable look is once that negative in the Pacific NW slides east and gets east of our Latitude the guidance does suggest things finally could get right.  below

both the atlantic AND pacific look better there.  Of course its 12 days away so no idea if its right BUT that is how the pattern eventually evolved in 1958 and 1962 with similar blocking earlier with similar fail results UNTIL things got to that look up there a week or two later. 

thats great but your taking us into March 15...spring snow sucks. Face it we blew it..and now we are hoping for a spring snowstorm. I think the March 2-4 storm is killling the entire pattern by getting suck and falling south instead of going to the usual place(Ne towards 50 50 land)

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern the next 8 days is NOT the same as what was shown on the EPS and GEFS a week ago that had myself and chill excited.  A week ago both were showing the blocking centered better with a strong indication of a 50/50 low.  But this is now what it actually looks like...and why its wrong.

So IF that is now correct...where we need to go from there to get to a favorable look is once that negative in the Pacific NW slides east and gets east of our Latitude the guidance does suggest things finally could get right.  below

both the atlantic AND pacific look better there.  Of course its 12 days away so no idea if its right BUT that is how the pattern eventually evolved in 1958 and 1962 with similar blocking earlier with similar fail results UNTIL things got to that look up there a week or two later. 

That's not much of a change needed with the position of the block.  We have plenty of time for it to adjust sooner.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats great but your taking us into March 15...spring snow sucks. Face it we blew it..and now we are hoping for a spring snowstorm. I think the March 2-4 storm is killling the entire pattern by getting suck and falling south instead of going to the usual place(Ne towards 50 50 land)

But that was always what we thought we were dealing with...when the blocking first showed up we were thinking March 10-15 would be the window.  Then we got teased with a faster evolution for a bit...but realistically this is more normal.  You are not wrong...were are burning the midnight oil with this one but some similar blocking episodes that lead to snow, 1958 and 1965 the snow didn't come until the second half of March.  The blocking set in a week earlier in 1962 so the pay off was earlier.  Same in 1960.  This year the blocking is setting in around March 1 so the evolution if the same would say March March 10-15th or so is the money window.  Of course I wish it was sooner...I would take it in early February if I could...but that is the timing like it or not.  I am just saying what COULD happen down the line, not that I like it. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But that was always what we thought we were dealing with...when the blocking first showed up we were thinking March 10-15 would be the window.  Then we got teased with a faster evolution for a bit...but realistically this is more normal.  You are not wrong...were are burning the midnight oil with this one but some similar blocking episodes that lead to snow, 1950 and 1965 the snow didn't come until the second half of March.  The blocking set in a week earlier in 1962 so the pay off was earlier.  Same in 1960.  This year the blocking is setting in around March 1 so the evolution if the swe ame would say March March 10-15th or so is the money window.  Of course I wish it was sooner...I would take it in early February if I could...but that is the timing like it or not.  I am just saying what COULD happen down the line, not that I like it. 

we probably wont have deep cold like we did a few marchs ago where we got 8 inches of powder.....so without deep cold...a normal snowstorm will never stick....so basically we are in the position where its  HECS or bust

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

That's not much of a change needed with the position of the block.  We have plenty of time for it to adjust sooner.

It's not, so maybe...but its closer in time AND pretty locked in universally on guidance so while I am not ruling out a shift our better hope right now IMO is for it to evolve the way we need it to AFTER that ugly look a week from now.  I am not punting the first week of March because I want to...I am punting because its 4th and 10 on my own 20 yard line with 2:30 left with 3 timeouts and my better chance is to hope my defense can hold and get me the ball back one last time.