Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Still not giving up on March 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, Ji said: Still not giving up on March 2-4 Says you or the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 For having a stout block there's plenty of cutters throughout the entire run of the GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I’m pretty bored so I went through different members of the Euro and didn’t take long to find the best one. Still haven’t given up on March 6-10 period. Remember how many people quit on winter last year until we had the Pi day event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 hours ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: calm down ladies. Hmmmm.... Jumping into the middle of something that doesn't concern you. In a condescending way no less. Must be a newbie. Yep, one month. If this post is indicative of what we can expect from you in the future then aren't we all in for a treat. 7 hours ago, Cobalt said: I completely agree with you. From what I've seen before, the off runs have been distinctly different than the 0z or 12 runs, especially close to a storm. Whether that means putting us in the game for 1 run (IIRC for the Presidents Day 2016 storm the 18z GFS had an east track about 96 hours from gametime, keeping DC all snow, and then trended back to identically what the 12z run had shown). Maybe it's confirmation bias, or maybe it's an actual thing. The smallest scale I have ever seen for confirmation scores has been N America. I have asked repeatedly if there is one of a smaller scale such as for the CONUS, which would be better but not great, or even for the eastern seaboard which would be optimal for our needs. But as of this point I have struck out in that regard. So to the best of my knowledge what we have are scores for a huge portion of real estate that may or may not reflect accurately in our small corner of the world. Now if that isn't bad enough our small corner of the world is also prone to rapid cyclogenisis where any small differences between input can rapidly compound the error factor. So to automatically assume that large scale confirmation scores (of which much of the land mass covered has much stabler weather features then our region) will reflect accurately within our region could very well be a huge mistake. There is also another factor that has to be considered as well. When you are dealing with rapid cyclogenisis (24 hours or less) moving faulty input injected into the 12z or 00Z just 6 hours ahead as the off runs often do can have a significant impact on the solution spit out. That is why quite often you see a 12z/00z come in with a solution that may deviate a touch from previous runs and yet the followup off run has some vastly different solution spit out. Only to then have the solution revert back to a semblance of previous runs on the following run as the bad input gets kicked out. I also have a couple other thoughts on the methodology used for the off runs but it would be too difficult to put on paper in an understandable way so I won't. Now the improvements I have seen over just the last few years have been vast in regards to the off runs. But I still find that when there is what I consider a somewhat significant change that the off runs are more often wrong then they are right. Now this is nothing more then my opinion formed from over 20+ years of tracking winter weather. I never try to force my opinion on others and I would expect the same courtesy from others as well. So when I see someone come in and say, 'No, no, no. Shut this down. You are not thinking right', then Hell Yeah I am going to have a major issue with said person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I think I will just leave this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Above control run has our day 9/10 storm. Drops snow from the cities north and west with close to double digits around the PA line and far NW suburbs. Follows up with a monster, day 13/14. Tracks a low from Texas across the south then puts a 973 low just SE of DC over the bay before it exits stage right. Looks as if it drops close to a foot in the cities and roughly 2 feet around the PA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 what is the euro control run based on?? the op, ensembles, what exactly?? where can i see this please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said: what is the euro control run based on?? the op, ensembles, what exactly?? where can i see this please Control is just a lower resolution of the op run. It is based within the ensembles but does not have the perturbations that the other members do of which they are also run at a lower resolution. The site where I got this was a pay site. There is a free site out there that may or may not have this but I do not know where to find it. maybe someone else can help you with that. That said, while the control is better then the other members it is more then likely just a fantasy with what it is depicting so don't go buying a snowblower just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 We are going to get shellacked so badly by snow, that we will run out of descriptors. We are ALL gonna be sick to death of digging snow. All out BRAWLS will break out for parking spaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Looking over the overnight GEFS and EPS and now the 06Z GEFS I will say I saw improvements to our possible day 5 storm. We are for the most part seeing the trends towards what I thought was probably our best shot for snow listed in my post yesterday. Still a ways to go to get a win but as I stated before... Baby steps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the overnight GEFS and EPS and now the 06Z GEFS I will say I saw improvements to our possible day 5 storm. We are for the most part seeing the trends towards what I thought was probably our best shot for snow listed in my post yesterday. Still a ways to go to get a win but as I stated before... Baby steps... I think I can see what you’re talking about but man it looks complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the overnight GEFS and EPS and now the 06Z GEFS I will say I saw improvements to our possible day 5 storm. We are for the most part seeing the trends towards what I thought was probably our best shot for snow listed in my post yesterday. Still a ways to go to get a win but as I stated before... Baby steps... Even if the day 5 storm doesn’t pan out, I think we still have a shot. Especially when the -nao starts breaking down. That’s typically when these storms happen. We’re only getting started... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 23 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Control is just a lower resolution of the op run. It is based within the ensembles but does not have the perturbations that the other members do of which they are also run at a lower resolution. The site where I got this was a pay site. There is a free site out there that may or may not have this but I do not know where to find it. maybe someone else can help you with that. That said, while the control is better then the other members it is more then likely just a fantasy with what it is depicting so don't go buying a snowblower just yet. I think this may be the site you are talking about. nice site to get you fantasy snow fix. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/pennsylvania/m0_snow-depth-in/20180313-0000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 4 hours ago, Mordecai said: I’m pretty bored so I went through different members of the Euro and didn’t take long to find the best one. Still haven’t given up on March 6-10 period. Remember how many people quit on winter last year until we had the Pi day event? #45 is not too shabby either on the 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think I can see what you’re talking about but man it looks complicated. Yeah, it's a lot to ask for. One thing I will be watching besides what i stated yesterday is the temp profile leading into the storm. Would like to see that cooler then currently projected. The cooler it is leading into the storm the less warmth that dynamical cooling would have to overcome. Still we are talking a long shot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: #45 is not too shabby either on the 0z run I don’t think Jeb would be able to handle this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 21 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Even if the day 5 storm doesn’t pan out, I think we still have a shot. Especially when the -nao starts breaking down. That’s typically when these storms happen. We’re only getting started... I am fine where we stand with the current projected setup for the next couple of weeks. Will give us opportunities to score and that is all you can ask for. Sure beats last years debacle, where except for the late season storm we had almost absolutely nothing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Looking over the overnight GEFS and EPS and now the 06Z GEFS I will say I saw improvements to our possible day 5 storm. We are for the most part seeing the trends towards what I thought was probably our best shot for snow listed in my post yesterday. Still a ways to go to get a win but as I stated before... Baby steps...What day 5 storm. The one this weekend or the one march 6-8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Looking over the overnight GEFS and EPS and now the 06Z GEFS I will say I saw improvements to our possible day 5 storm. We are for the most part seeing the trends towards what I thought was probably our best shot for snow listed in my post yesterday. Still a ways to go to get a win but as I stated before... Baby steps... What day 5 storm. The one this weekend or the one march 6-8? This weekend I’m guessing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: I am fine where we stand with the current projected setup for the next couple of weeks. Will give us opportunities to score and that is all you can ask for. Sure beats last years debacle, where except for the late season storm we had almost absolutely nothing to track. You’re right. It’s nice to even be tracking something, late in the season no less. We have a favorable pattern coming up and who knows what could happen. I think I’ll start holding out for that -NAO retrograding BECS we’ll get March 20 . And thanks to posters like yourself and many others, I’ll hopefully learn a thing or two over these next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I’m starting to like the look at that day 5 storm too.Has that look of “confluence could help us out”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 hours ago, Mordecai said: I’m pretty bored so I went through different members of the Euro and didn’t take long to find the best one. Still haven’t given up on March 6-10 period. Remember how many people quit on winter last year until we had the Pi day event? I'll never say one more negative word about this winter if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 What day 5 storm. The one this weekend or the one march 6-8?6-8 is looking more and more like a fropa and has been for a few runs. Guess we see if a trailing wave can produce but confidence is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 I'll never say one more negative word about this winter if that verifies.Im all for being optimistic but rule 7 clause b of the weenie handbook clearly states when we are pulling out individual ens members that show a fantasy storm with little to no support from other guidance then the MECS portrayed therein is very unlikely to verify. Clause c of same rule states do not hug the low resolution control run of the new JV euro model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, Fozz said: I'll never say one more negative word about this winter if that verifies. its not so keep thinking negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 12 hours ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I kind of answered my own question in a big way! That post from HM has me thinking...This is kind of a running thinking out loud thing so sorry if its all over the place. 2006 was a total dud... and 1958 was a dud during the first half of March when that analog is from...it got really good after the 10th but that was because the blocking held long enough and things got right eventually. (that's our hope this year maybe) And 1962 had one kind of fluky storm honestly but otherwise was a total dud. It had blocking the rest of the month and managed nothing anywhere in the east. (but I think BEFORE that 1962 storm is a better analog to right now anyways and I will explain why later.) That was because it also featured an AK vortex that flooded the CONUS with mild air and so blocking or not there was no cold to work with the second half of the month. So perhaps that look of extreme EPO and NAO ridging isnt a good one in March. I can't say for sure why but the EPO ridge will force a downstream trough and given the shorter wavelengths this time of year that trough might naturally end up in the Pacific NW and not bleed east as much as during January and early Feb. Add to that such an extreme NAO block would suppress any 50/50 and thus open the door even more for ridging to pop up the east coast. I can picture in my mind how that combo or things could end up going wrong. And it seems to have gone wrong all 3 times it happened in the past AND looks like it might again this time. So why did I say BEFORE the Ash Wednesday storm was a better analog to 1962...well even though the short term analogs look very close around the day of the storm itself to this week... if you look at the entire pattern evolution the blocking in 1962 started well before that storm and seems to have gone through a similar progression as we are having this week only it was a week sooner in Late February in 1962. Look at this 3 day mean centered A WEEK BEFORE the ash wed storm which wast until the 6/7th. That looks really familiar. If you adjust everything west just a little bit its almost exactly what we are dealing with right now. That didn't give them a big storm in 1962...it lead to a big storm a week AFTER that. The analog to the storm this week isn't a good one in terms of pattern progression. If we can get something to dig into the trough 5/6 days after that would be a better match. The 1958 analog also didn't feature snow during the period where the EPO ridge and NAO ridge were both at 3std and linked but later lead to an event. 2006 it seems the pattern broke down before anything could come of it. Look at what 1962 and 1958 did look like when the big storm finally hit Ash Wed storm March 58 Notice on both the NAO ridge is still going ape but its no longer linked to an off the charts EPO ridge. The backing off of the EPO in both cases meant the corresponding trough backed off the Pac NW and was weaker allowing more trough to dig into the east easier. Here is a way it worked going the other way...1960 featured blocking before this period too...so again no storm at the start of the period, but when we did get a big storm early March it was the NAO that backed off. The EPO was going ape but with a weaker NAO ridge allowing the 50/50 to really go nuts further west and thus prevent ridging into the northeast...and so that negative in the PAC NW is going to be forced to dig into the east and we get a HECS. I think this implies that the combo of an off the charts strong EPO and NAO together is actually not a good look in March. I know that cherry picking these few examples isnt enough to claim statistical significance but its worth considering IMO. The good news is in a few of these cases the pattern did evolve from where we are now into one for snow a week later. BUT....we are running out of time. I am not blind to that fact. But we might yet still get our shot...just later then we thought or wanted it to be. Thoughts, comments, refutations, additions are welcome...like I said this was kind of just a running thread of consciousness and I am interested in what anyone else has to add or if I am off my rocker here please let me know lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 Well, it has come to this. We're down to "all the data hasn't made it onshore yet". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, it has come to this. We're down to "all the data hasn't made it onshore yet". thats JBs final bullet before he throws in the towel 24 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 26, 2018 Share Posted February 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: thats JBs final bullet before he throws in the towel 24 hours later He won't throw in the towel he will take whatever result happens and claim "see I told you there would be a big storm" regardless of if it snows in Vermont or NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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