Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

[cbmclean]

7 minutes ago, psurulz said:

I'm still learning here, but I thought this type of blocking wasn't as good for New England as it is for the mid atlantic

That is why everyone is so annoyed.

[Maestrobjwa]

I'm wondering if we should wait a little longer on the day 9 threat...someone (cranky, I believe) suggested we wait until we get the pieces of energy on land before we start talking more specifics. (And actually...compared to 12z...that low in the north wasn't there...goes to show we can't just go jumping off yet!)

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Not unreal.  VERY real, and expected this year.   What makes this so irritating is that we were supposed to be entering in a great period of blocking, etc and everything that can go wrong is going wrong according to modeling.   

Just hypothetically...if it were to verify like this...what specifically would be causing things to go wrong on both storms? Or is the blocking itself not showing up the way it was modeled to be?

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Always 7-10 days away and misleading by models that don't predict the weather but rather display a wide array of it

 

Deciphering the op runs and using ensembles for pattern recognition and what looks like a decent chance or a long shot is a fun mental exercise. It doesn't snow here very often in any year so 7-10 or whatever day talk is all we have to discuss. When things get into the medium and short range then long range talk drops off a cliff. 

I'm really not sure what the point of your entire post is. The spirit of this board is grounded in tracking winter weather or interesting weather in general. If you see no value in long range or numerical guidance then don't partake in it. It's optional. But don't tell us what we should or shouldn't be doing.

I like the challenge of identifying opportunities and good patterns at long range. Ensemble and weekly guidance has done very well this year. Every hemispheric pattern change was picked up at long leads and has been modeled with fairly striking accuracy. That's irrefutable. 

[BristowWx]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm wondering if we should wait a little longer on the day 9 threat...someone (cranky, I believe) suggested we wait until we get the pieces of energy on land before we start talking more specifics. (And actually...compared to 12z...that low in the north wasn't there...goes to show we can't just go jumping off yet!)

Sure.  We can wait.  Been waiting since 8 Dec.   2-3; 6-8 March looking dicey.  After that who knows.  My guess is that we lose them all because that is how it’s been.  That said, we can wait.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just hypothetically...if it were to verify like this...what specifically would be causing things to go wrong on both storms? Or is the blocking itself not showing up the way it was modeled to be?

Things are a little out of sync. That's all there is to it. We've had plenty -nao periods that don't snow on us. We've also had plenty that went big. Also, there will be multiple waves to watch over the next couple weeks. Being realistic, if just one breaks our way then we struck gold. I'm not surprised at all with the front side of the blocking period not working here. If anything that's more normal than getting hit flush right away. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Sure.  We can wait.  Been waiting since 8 Dec.   2-3; 6-8 March looking dicey.  After that who knows.  My guess is that we lose them all because that is how it’s been.  That said, we can wait.

Flag on the post...Non-meteorlogical answer to weather question! Lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Things are a little out of sync. That's all there is to it. We've had plenty -nao periods that don't snow on us. We've also had plenty that went big. Also, there will be multiple waves to watch over the next couple weeks. Being realistic, if just one breaks our way then we struck gold. I'm not surprised at all with the front side of the blocking period not working here. If anything that's more normal than getting hit flush right away. 

Huh...so if we gotta rely on timing...then yeah, I guess it is kind of a crapshoot!

[MD Snow]

21 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Unreal how quickly the GFS lost that March 7th threat. 

Um...I thought it was still 8 days away? I don't really know how we could call it a threat. More like a window of opportunity. In my mind that window is still very much open. Just a couple weeks ago you would get laughed at around here if you wrote anything off outside of 96hrs. 

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Thank God New England gets hammered.  I was worried about them.

Still 120 hrs out. I know everyone thinks this opportunity is dead but it's not. Block gets a little stronger, primary doesn't drive as far north, pops a low of hatteras instead of ocean city and we're in business for at least some snow tv. 12z navgem kind of hints at this.  It really isn't that far fetched. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Huh...so if we gotta rely on timing...then yeah, I guess it is kind of a crapshoot!

We always have to rely on timing. Our climo is not easy but it does work at times. There is no such thing as a lock here....ever. I say this all the time...we've had many storms that look terrible on paper and we've come up short on many great patterns. That's normal life in the mid atlantic. This year isn't a nino with a southern stream. Nothing ever comes easy with northern stream only winters and this year is no exception. 

I think people are being way to quick to dump the next 10 days. It may not look promising or "easy" but we're still entering active flow with a -nao. Just let it play out a little. We're still pretty much a week away from helpful things getting in place. 

[showmethesnow]

Are people already giving up on the day 10 threat? Day 10 mind you. From an op run from an off run no less? With a look like this that isn't far from being something?

 

Just asking. 

 

 

[MD Snow]

3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Are people already giving up on the day 10 threat? Day 10 mind you. From an op run from an off run no less? With a look like this that isn't far from being something?

Just asking. 

 

 

People are giving up on this winter because models aren't giving them nice bright colored snow maps in the next 10 days. So it must be over right?

I mean come on. March is hard. I get it. But we still have some players that we haven't had in a long time working for us over the next 2 weeks. 

[BristowWx]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Flag on the post...Non-meteorlogical answer to weather question! Lol

Sorry I was being a little snarky.  Truth is we have to wait like Bob said.  I can speculate but would be wrong.  Even Wes or HM or even Kocin himself could make an educated guess...but it’s too difficult a set up to really say for sure.  That’s evident by the array of solutions being spit out.  Just wait it out.  One way or another this comes to an end come April.  

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Are people already giving up on the day 10 threat? Day 10 mind you. From an op run from an off run no less? With a look like this that isn't far from being something?

Just asking. 

 

 

Way too much credit or weight is given to single op runs beyond 5 days. Both ways too. It confuses me sometimes. A single op run is no more accurate than a single ensemble member once you get to d6+. 

Looking at this meteogram I'd say that quite a few options are still on the table beginning on March 6th. Might get nothing, might get a small event, or we might get hit flush. I've seen many ensemble runs pretty much say close the blinds cuz we're done for a while. 12z eps says the exact opposite.

 

 

[showmethesnow]

24 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Deciphering the op runs and using ensembles for pattern recognition and what looks like a decent chance or a long shot is a fun mental exercise. It doesn't snow here very often in any year so 7-10 or whatever day talk is all we have to discuss. When things get into the medium and short range then long range talk drops off a cliff. 

I'm really not sure what the point of your entire post is. The spirit of this board is grounded in tracking winter weather or interesting weather in general. If you see no value in long range or numerical guidance then don't partake in it. It's optional. But don't tell us what we should or shouldn't be doing.

I like the challenge of identifying opportunities and good patterns at long range. Ensemble and weekly guidance has done very well this year. Every hemispheric pattern change was picked up at long leads and has been modeled with fairly striking accuracy. That's irrefutable. 

I admire your patience. God knows I could use more of it. But I fear you might as well be talking to a brick wall for all the good this will probably do.

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Are people already giving up on the day 10 threat? Day 10 mind you. From an op run from an off run no less? With a look like this that isn't far from being something?

Just asking. 

 

 

I rather like the March 6-10 period as depicted.

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I rather like the March 6-10 period as depicted.

I agree 100%. Looking at the long range GFS  I see a ton of potential. I thought the 18z had a great look to it from about day 8/9 onward. I would take that look and roll the dice. The blocking seems legit.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I agree 100%. Looking at the long range GFS  I see a ton of potential. I thought the 18z had a great look to it from about day 8/9 onward. I would take that look and roll the dice. The blocking seems legit.

Yup. To be simplistic about it, the pattern finally gets "right", including the EPAC.. at least as good as can be expected. We still need some luck, timing, etc. to score something, but that is another matter lol.

[Interstate]

40 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Are people already giving up on the day 10 threat? Day 10 mind you. From an op run from an off run no less? With a look like this that isn't far from being something?

Can people stop saying this.  There is no such thing as an off run.  Ask any Reg Tagger.

[showmethesnow]

32 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Can people stop saying this.  There is no such thing as an off run.  Ask any Reg Tagger.

Get over yourself. From my experience the off run is exactly that an off run. It's my opinion (of which others agree) and I don't see why it should matter to you whatsoever.

[WestminsterSnowCapitalMA]

calm down ladies.

[Cobalt]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Get over yourself. From my experience the off run is exactly that an off run. It's my opinion (of which others agree) and I don't see why it should matter to you whatsoever.

I completely agree with you. From what I've seen before, the off runs have been distinctly different than the 0z or 12 runs, especially close to a storm. Whether that means putting us in the game for 1 run (IIRC for the Presidents Day 2016 storm the 18z GFS had an east track about 96 hours from gametime, keeping DC all snow, and then trended back to identically what the 12z run had shown). Maybe it's confirmation bias, or maybe it's an actual thing. 

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Get over yourself. From my experience the off run is exactly that an off run. It's my opinion (of which others agree) and I don't see why it should matter to you whatsoever.

God do we need snow

[BristowWx]

Just now, Ji said:

God do we need snow

And bourbon...and snow of course

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, Tenman Johnson said:

Always 7-10 days away and misleading by models that don't predict the weather but rather display a wide array of it 

it's the season of the Nina, the pattern is almost a 1989-90 one, bitter cold then extreme warmth, winter is over. The pattern change chase has been in effect since mid Jan .  It's changed alright-got worse.

Matt, Ian, me, Huff, Midlo, Mike used to do all of this-follow the models every 6 hours and wear ourselves out with never ending hope, reinforced by models, that a beneficial change is forthcoming.  You can barely find any of those guys anymore.

theres more to Weather, locally nationally and globally than mathematical equations. There is the signs that have been given moving into the winter(analogs), the enso and the Nao and there are indexes that are en vogue but are dubious as to predictive qualities(stratosphere)

there is no push for a change as status quo is very well funded because when you show almost all the possible outcomes you can always point to one that did pan out and keep the money flowing thank you 

 

Snow is an anamoly here. Nothing can predict it from more then 72 hours with much accuracy. Not NWP and not any old school method. We all know that. We're just tracking.  

Persistence is not a forecast. And persistence of what?  We have had some snow. Some cold. Some warm.  So persistence of "not getting a big snow". That's lame. Snow is an irregularity but your dropping precip and temps. Ncep doesn't even predict snow long range. Just temps and precip. You do the opposite. Wow it won't snow. That makes you right 90% of the time. Want a cookie. What does anyone do with that?  Your drivel doesn't give anyone any practical idea what the weather will be like in a week.  

The only difference with what we're doing is none of us is even claiming to be accurate. We're discussing snow threats as they come. That's it. You aren't making any forecast either only criticizing others for using NWP. Btw without NWP we would have had no idea the arctic cold was coming in December from over a week away. . Or the warmup from 2 weeks. Or this blocking from 3 weeks. 

And for the last time persistence is BS. We were cold and dry. Now we're warm and wet. That isn't persistence. There are some inherent traits to any pattern but the pattern can end any time and then you bust. Odds in a Nina are bad. But why you saying that as if anyone here doesn't know it. But it has snowed in a Nina. Flukes happen. 1976.  1984. 1999. 2009. And others ended in total fail but some had a fluke snow late. So stop acting like it can't happen and people are foolish for tracking. 

Seriously 1976. 1976 1976 1976. I'll just keep throwing that at you. It was even more awful then this year. Nina. There was a week of 70s mid feb and hit 80 early march then Baltimore got 8" of snow. So you are blind and foolish if you think it won't snow just because it hasn't. We all know it's not likely. But your arrogant diatribes where you talk down on everyone else for bothering to track because you obviously know what's going to happen is ridiculous.  

You bust all the time. Just as much as everyone else. no crime in that but stop acting like you know best. Your guessing just like the rest of us only we don't pretend we're not. 

[dallen7908]

... and now for an interregnum from the gloom and doom from the bullish EPS. 

The EPS gives DC a 4, 28, 40% chance of 1" of snow during the next 5/10/15 days. The corresponding numbers for the PA/MD border due north of DC are 20/44/64%. 

The EPS gives DC a 0, 12, 20% chance of 3" of snow ............. Corresponding numbers ... are 6/24/44%

The EPS gives DC a 0, 6, 10% chance of 6" of snow ... Corresponding numbers are 2, 14, 24%

 

 

 

[BristowWx]

39 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

... and now for an interregnum from the gloom and doom from the bullish EPS. 

The EPS gives DC a 4, 28, 40% chance of 1" of snow during the next 5/10/15 days. The corresponding numbers for the PA/MD border due north of DC are 20/44/64%. 

The EPS gives DC a 0, 12, 20% chance of 3" of snow ............. Corresponding numbers ... are 6/24/44%

The EPS gives DC a 0, 6, 10% chance of 6" of snow ... Corresponding numbers are 2, 14, 24%

 

 

 

Yes that sounds fair.  Thank you. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

I completely agree with you. From what I've seen before, the off runs have been distinctly different than the 0z or 12 runs, especially close to a storm. Whether that means putting us in the game for 1 run (IIRC for the Presidents Day 2016 storm the 18z GFS had an east track about 96 hours from gametime, keeping DC all snow, and then trended back to identically what the 12z run had shown). Maybe it's confirmation bias, or maybe it's an actual thing. 

Agreed. Precip/evolution is sometimes “off” and while many argue that this has been corrected the reality is that regardless they sometimes throw more curve balls than continuity.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

I kind of answered my own question in a big way!

 

[BristowWx]

Well at least we are making history with the upcoming -PNA and -NAO.  At least there is something memorable about of this winter.  Sure it will be something we reference for many years.