Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

Great question..and I'm not totally sure either but at hour 120 isobars are already  bending near the Outer Banks hinting at a transfer ..

Unless that low somehow bombs severely and stacks vertically creating its own cold pool aloft, the chance for a snowstorm aside from high elevations are virtually nil. This was supposed to be our 'sacrificial lamb' for the 'even more favorable period' thereafter which is also becoming a fading signal. No total towel throwing just yet but the fat lady is in the dressing room warming up her vocal cords on winter 17-18. Potential is still there for now thru mid month anyway......for now.

[psuhoffman]

All this is still in fantasy land. Even the first threat is really. 120 is forever for a convoluted setup. I'm not going any deeper then that. My analysis is probably crap anyways.  I judged policy debate all day and just got home. Been up since 4:45 and working or driving every minute of it. Time to get 5 hours of sleep so I can be back at 7am to grade government HSA projects for Baltimore City. You all have fun with the euro. Someone post either a shocked face or a next for me. 

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Then JI should answer the darn question. 

When it comes out I'll post it

[Amped]

GFS and CMC have 95% rain on the NW side of the low, thats why I am not excited about the UKMET despite the track.

[Jebman]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Great question..and I'm not totally sure either but at hour 120 isobars are already  bending near the Outer Banks hinting at a transfer ..

Unless that low somehow bombs severely and stacks vertically creating its own cold pool aloft, the chance for a snowstorm aside from high elevations are virtually nil. This was supposed to be our 'sacrificial lamb' for the 'even more favorable period' thereafter which is also becoming a fading signal. No total towel throwing just yet but the fat lady is in the dressing room warming up her vocal cords on winter 17-18. Potential is still there for now thru mid month anyway......for now.

When the fat lady is warmin' up her vocal cords, it is never a good sign. This, is never ever a good sign. I also already have lilies coming up, and 30 percent of the lawn is green. In late Feb. I've been here for a half century. This is never a good sign.

Lokk, I still believe in the snow, I still think we are gonna get shellacked, but that fat lady is slightly shaking my belief. She's shaking it pretty good. Those damn lilies dont make me feel so good either. But I am STILL a believer.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

I did a graph today of DJF Atlantic ridges... March signal was +PNA and -PNA for opposite. Biggest thing was the signal would reverse in the Atlantic in March and DJF pattern would retrograde to the east part of the North Pacific High, a US Temperature signal. Not a lot, but some hope maybe

[rcflyermd68]

i would keep my expectaion on the low side, i have seen block produce nothing until they begin to expire then we get the FINALE.

[Thanatos_I_Am]

I’ll wait for one of the experts on here to comment, but the Euro at Day 10 looks interesting no? SLP developing over the outerbanks at 240 looks intriguing.

[showmethesnow]

26 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I’ll wait for one of the experts on here to comment, but the Euro at Day 10 looks interesting no? SLP developing over the outerbanks at 240 looks intriguing.

Noticed that as well. Has an interesting look with possibilities. Looking at 500 mb it has some room to amplify and move up the coast somewhat. Day 10 so take it for what it's worth but temp profiles look supportive from DC north. Again day 10, but the strong low to the west could be a concern depending how far east that actually verified. At this point it is far enough west that it doesn't screw up the 850's to the surface as it keeps the warm air intrusion on the west side of the mountains..

[BristowWx]

Looking at the GEFS late in the run it does get cold toward next weekend.  Lots of blue showing up at 850 across NA. Hate to say this but may have to wait longer than we want to.  Next weekend meaning the 10th.

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Looking at the GEFS late in the run it does get cold toward next weekend.  Lots of blue showing up at 850 across NA. Hate to say this but may have to wait longer than we want to.  Next weekend meaning the 10th.

The full latitude ridge that develops next week really hurts. That very might ruin the next chance also same as the ridge now screws up this weeks threat. The 0z gefs did light up day 12-16 with a threat behind the 6/7th. But that's forever away. 

[CAPE]

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The full latitude ridge that develops next week really hurts. That very might ruin the next chance also same as the ridge now screws up this weeks threat. The 0z gefs did light up day 12-16 with a threat behind the 6/7th. But that's forever away. 

This has been an unfortunate development over the past few days on the guidance. Looks like some fairly minor shifts in the modeled position/strength of the ridge/trough in the EPAC conspires to cause a more amplified/further east conus ridge, just as the NA ridge is at peak strength and retrograding into what would be an ideal position. Instead it merges/bridges with the US ridge and it is likely going wreck the period that initially looked prime for a winter event in the MA. The pattern looks as if it will still ultimately become favorable, but later for our general region.The block at that point isn't as impressive, but that may not be a bad thing, especially if the modeled improvement out west verifies. Unfortunately time/ warming climo is not on our side, so not a fan of the delayed/not denied thing.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This has been an unfortunate development over the past few days on the guidance. Looks like some fairly minor shifts in the modeled position/strength of the ridge/trough in the EPAC conspires to cause a more amplified/further east conus ridge, just as the NA ridge is at peak strength and retrograding into what would be an ideal position. Instead it merges/bridges with the US ridge and it is likely going wreck the period that initially looked prime for a winter event in the MA. The pattern looks as if it will still ultimately become favorable, but later for our general region.The block at that point isn't as impressive, but that may not be a bad thing, especially if the modeled improvement out west verifies. Unfortunately time/ warming climo is not on our side, so not a fan of the delayed/not denied thing.

In total agreement 

[BristowWx]

16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

This has been an unfortunate development over the past few days on the guidance. Looks like some fairly minor shifts in the modeled position/strength of the ridge/trough in the EPAC conspires to cause a more amplified/further east conus ridge, just as the NA ridge is at peak strength and retrograding into what would be an ideal position. Instead it merges/bridges with the US ridge and it is likely going wreck the period that initially looked prime for a winter event in the MA. The pattern looks as if it will still ultimately become favorable, but later for our general region.The block at that point isn't as impressive, but that may not be a bad thing, especially if the modeled improvement out west verifies. Unfortunately time/ warming climo is not on our side, so not a fan of the delayed/not denied thing.

Not sure much more could be said.  As usual great post.  Sad if we can’t cash in on something but sometimes you’re flush and sometimes you bust.  In weather and everything else. 

[Scraff]

Anyone looking for some Sunday morning hope, just read Crankyweatherguy pinned tweet outlook. Bottom line, nothing is off the table with regards to next weekend. Too many moving pieces and parts that won’t be worked out for a few days yet.

Hope everyone has great Sunday!

[Ralph Wiggum]

The full latitude ridge that develops next week really hurts. That very might ruin the next chance also same as the ridge now screws up this weeks threat. The 0z gefs did light up day 12-16 with a threat behind the 6/7th. But that's forever away. 

That full lat transient ridging has become a recurring feature now in between our storm chances. No likey.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The full latitude ridge that develops next week really hurts. That very might ruin the next chance also same as the ridge now screws up this weeks threat. The 0z gefs did light up day 12-16 with a threat behind the 6/7th. But that's forever away. 

That full lat transient ridging has become a recurring feature now in between our storm chances. No likey.

Yea it wasn't there 3/4 days ago and before that the ridging this week ahead of the march 2nd system has trended worse eliminating that as a high prob threat. Now it "looks" good after the 6th and there is still time for the 6th to trend better, but there is no guarantee the ridging won't pop again between waves. Yes ultimately the vorts are forced under but if they are entering a regime with no cold due to ridging between each wave linked with the high latitude then it won't do us any good. 

[showmethesnow]

Looking over the runs in regards to the day 5/6 storm.

Now many I am sure have seen all the different solutions spit out that give us snow. Well most are fools gold (or in this case fools snow) that look pretty on the maps but in reality are probably nothing more then a cold rain. So I will focus on the one scenario that IMO actually has a decent shot of producing for our region if in fact it plays out. 

First off, just to get it off the table, as currently depicted the GEFS is nowhere near getting it done for any possible snow for our region. This is reflected quite well with the snowfall means. Not to say this can't change with some adjustments in future runs but at this point, No, it's not happening. Throw in the GFS op runs into the category of No as well. 

EPS on the other hand made a couple of positive adjustments on the overnight run. Will try to step you through the changes seen as well as what else we need to see for any chance in our region.

Below we have yesterdays EPS 12Z run. Notice the strong low in central/upper Ill. With the strength and the northward progression of this low we are also seeing a strong southerly flow of warmer temps progressing through our region well to our north. If you look can also see kinking of the isobars to the east of this low beginning to occur. These indicate that we are in the very early stages of a low transfer to the east.

Now compare yesterdays run to the overnight run. We now see the low coming in much weaker and farther to the south over southern Ill.. Because of these changes we are seeing with the low we are also seeing a weaker southerly flow in front of it that does not advance as far north. Thus less warming through our region that does not extend as far north. We also see kinking of the isobars here as well. By looking at the general overall setup as well as the lower pressure anomalies we can see that the low transfer to the coast is a little farther into the process then the previous run.

Now to understand why the changes seen above were a positive lets look at what I want to see happen on the surface (map below). The first step in the process is that we need to see the low running up to our west be as weak as possible and gain as little latitude (northward movement) as possible before we see the transfer over to the coastal low occur. This would give us a better likelihood of the secondary low developing farther south (hopefully south of our region) as well as give us a more west to east oriented transfer as opposed to one that is more NW to SE oriented. These things give us a better base temp profile and setup leading into our coastal low. Now we did see changes that moved in this direction on the over night run but it is still not there. Instead of seeing the coastal develop to our south we saw development off the OC coast. We also saw a more NW to SE orientated transfer as the Midwest primary didn't weaken enough, gained latitude and delayed the transfer process. But.... Baby steps.

.

 

Now the surface is not our only concern. We also need to look at the 500 mb maps because it plays hand in hand with what we will see on the surface. And there we saw some improvement as well.

Below we have the 12Z run from yesterday. Notice we have a closed upper level low in the Mid-west. Though we do want to see a closed low at some point this is far to early in the process. All this does is strengthen and promote more latitude gain by the low running up to our west. All bad things which I discussed earlier. 

 

 

Now look what we see on the overnight run. We now have an open trough. You can see the impact these changes at 500 mb have on the surface reflection with the maps above.

 

Below is what I believe we need to see occur at 500 mb. We need to see the Mid-west trough dig more initially. Timing of the closed low is important where we need to see that develop just to our west and at worst through our region. Biggest thing here though is track. We need to have that track just south of the region (might be able to slip by with it going through the region).  If that track is to the north that is all she wrote. Our chances of snow all depend on dynamically driven cold air reaching into the lower levels. And for that to occur we need to be on the north/northwest side of the closed low. 

Now if what we need to see on the surface and at 500 wasn't enough we also need some coordination between the two as well. And that involves the interaction and the evolution of the 500 mb closed low and the surface low. What we need to see is the closed low and the surface low close enough that there is at least the beginnings of a phase occurring just off our coast. If that surface low gets to far ahead then that is all she wrote.

So if you haven't guessed by now, there is a lot that needs to go right for us to see snow. Can we see snow? Yes. Is it likely? Probably not.

 

[Wonderdog]

15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The full latitude ridge that develops next week really hurts. That very might ruin the next chance also same as the ridge now screws up this weeks threat. The 0z gefs did light up day 12-16 with a threat behind the 6/7th. But that's forever away. 

That full lat transient ridging has become a recurring feature now in between our storm chances. No likey.

Is that a recurring theme in a NINA?

22 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Looking over the runs in regards to the day 5/6 storm.

Now many I am sure have seen all the different solutions spit out that give us snow. Well most are fools gold (or in this case fools snow) that look pretty on the maps but in reality are probably nothing more then a cold rain. So I will focus on the one scenario that IMO actually has a decent shot of producing for our region if in fact it plays out. 

First off, just to get it off the table, as currently depicted the GEFS is nowhere near getting it done for any possible snow for our region. This is reflected quite well with the snowfall means. Not to say this can't change with some adjustments in future runs but at this point, No, it's not happening. Throw in the GFS op runs into the category of No as well. 

EPS on the other hand made a couple of positive adjustments on the overnight run. Will try to step you through the changes seen as well as what else we need to see for any chance in our region.

Below we have yesterdays EPS 12Z run. Notice the strong low in central/upper Ill. With the strength and the northward progression of this low we are also seeing a strong southerly flow of warmer temps progressing through our region well to our north. If you look can also see kinking of the isobars to the east of this low beginning to occur. These indicate that we are in the very early stages of a low transfer to the east.

Now compare yesterdays run to the overnight run. We now see the low coming in much weaker and farther to the south over southern Ill.. Because of these changes we are seeing with the low we are also seeing a weaker southerly flow in front of it that does not advance as far north. Thus less warming through our region that does not extend as far north. We also see kinking of the isobars here as well. By looking at the general overall setup as well as the lower pressure anomalies we can see that the low transfer to the coast is a little farther into the process then the previous run.

Now to understand why the changes seen above were a positive lets look at what I want to see happen on the surface (map below). The first step in the process is that we need to see the low running up to our west be as weak as possible and gain as little latitude (northward movement) as possible before we see the transfer over to the coastal low occur. This would give us a better likelihood of the secondary low developing farther south (hopefully south of our region) as well as give us a more west to east oriented transfer as opposed to one that is more NW to SE oriented. These things give us a better base temp profile and setup leading into our coastal low. Now we did see changes that moved in this direction on the over night run but it is still not there. Instead of seeing the coastal develop to our south we saw development off the OC coast. We also saw a more NW to SE orientated transfer as the Midwest primary didn't weaken enough, gained latitude and delayed the transfer process. But.... Baby steps.

.

 

Now the surface is not our only concern. We also need to look at the 500 mb maps because it plays hand in hand with what we will see on the surface. And there we saw some improvement as well.

Below we have the 12Z run from yesterday. Notice we have a closed upper level low in the Mid-west. Though we do want to see a closed low at some point this is far to early in the process. All this does is strengthen and promote more latitude gain by the low running up to our west. All bad things which I discussed earlier. 

 

 

Now look what we see on the overnight run. We now have an open trough. You can see the impact these changes at 500 mb have on the surface reflection with the maps above.

 

Below is what I believe we need to see occur at 500 mb. We need to see the Mid-west trough dig more initially. Timing of the closed low is important where we need to see that develop just to our west and at worst through our region. Biggest thing here though is track. We need to have that track just south of the region (might be able to slip by with it going through the region).  If that track is to the north that is all she wrote. Our chances of snow all depend on dynamically driven cold air reaching into the lower levels. And for that to occur we need to be on the north/northwest side of the closed low. 

Now if what we need to see on the surface and at 500 wasn't enough we also need some coordination between the two as well. And that involves the interaction and the evolution of the 500 mb closed low and the surface low. What we need to see is the closed low and the surface low close enough that there is at least the beginnings of a phase occurring just off our coast. If that surface low gets to far ahead then that is all she wrote.

So if you haven't guessed by now, there is a lot that needs to go right for us to see snow. Can we see snow? Yes. Is it likely? Probably not.

 

Seems that a new solution was spit out every 12 hours. How do we have confidence in any solution at this time?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Maybe... the Pacific is so bad it can only trend better. Things feel better today for some reason 

[showmethesnow]

35 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Seems that a new solution was spit out every 12 hours. How do we have confidence in any solution at this time?

Now maybe the Ops are still all over the place. I wouldn't know because I pay very little attention to them outside of 5 days (3 day this year with the progressive flow) because they have so little value to me beyond that. On the other hand the ensembles seem to have settled down somewhat the last few runs and we are now within 5 days so I am going under the assumption that they at least have the overall pattern reasonably settled. Could it change? Absolutely. But for now I will go with what they have. Otherwise, what's there to discuss?

[BristowWx]

Not sure I have ever seen a low move NW to SE like that.  I’m sure it happens but intersting just from a weather perspective.  And 850s are cold.  Surface eh but maybe the final chapter not written yet as stated.  

[psuhoffman]

This is why I wasn't that excited about the U.K. Last night. Just looking at this 

looks good but 12 hours earlier tells the story.

 

It doesn't matter if after the storm is vertically stacked it retrogrades to a good spot. By then the cooling and dynamic phase to cause significance precip is over. Some rain/snow showers is the result. 

[showmethesnow]

Did see some improvement on the 12Z GFS in regards to our day 5/6 storm but it is still far from being a solution for snow. We still see a strong low move into the midwest but it doesn't get as far north this run before the transfer starts occurring. Also seeing the secondary coastal occurring a little quicker and farther south. Biggest takeaway though is that we are now seeing a closed upper low running through our region instead of north though it does initially close to early (in the midwest).

[MJO812]

CMC is a coastal rainstorm

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not sure I have ever seen a low move NW to SE like that.  I’m sure it happens but intersting just from a weather perspective.  And 850s are cold.  Surface eh but maybe the final chapter not written yet as stated.  

It happens with extreme blocking. If there is cold and it stalls and loops east of you that's how you end up with 50" from storms like march 58 and 62 in places. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

CMC is a coastal rainstorm

Do you ever deliver good news?  Your around sporadically for a bad run but the whole week before January 2016 suddenly you were MIA 

[psuhoffman]

The h5 low that was over the TN valley giving us a blizzard on the gfs 36 hours ago is up over the Hudson Bay this run. Slight correction there. 

[stormtracker]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Do you ever deliver good news?  Your around sporadically for a bad run but the whole week before January 2016 suddenly you were MIA 

And also, when did we merge with the NYC forum?

[Interstate]

What a mess