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Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion


Ji

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Weird NW to SE trajectory. Sharp cut off N and E. Can see the models wrestling with the influence of the developing block.

It’s weird but it’s been showing up often. GFS has it as well and has had it off and on for a few days now. Blocks gonna block.

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9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

You sure?

ecmwf_z500a_noram_38.thumb.png.12d51f3bbbdcfe5792cd55617f03cb68.png

 

On pivotal, the "significant weather" parameter looks like a wave from the sw merges with a clipper. Interesting https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018022112/usa/significant-weather/20180302-1800z.html

eta: there's a base reflectivity sim for the euro! https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018022112/usa/base-reflectivity/20180302-1800z.html

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6 minutes ago, Amped said:

When combinend with the 50/50 low there's a NW flow and it's hard for the low to pump up moisture.

Exactly. Verbatim, strong circulation is basically impossible. Could get a nice swath of WAA snows though. Of course parsing an op @ d8-10 is pretty much a waste of time. 

 

GEFS ticked up to 6 members snowing on us d8-10 with some good hits in there. That's the first time the GEFS has showed something like that during the period. Euro has already shown a couple ops and a splattering of ens figuring out a way to win. My guess is the EPS ups the ante here shortly. 

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