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Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion


Ji

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25 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Not gonna lie..not liking the 18z..nope I don’t like it...none of it

It is an "off" GFS op run, but considering we are supposed to have this great block, sure seems like lows still want to keep tracking to our north.  Part of the problem is the block is epic up front, but its impact looks to be negated by a really crappy PAC at that time. Beyond that, the ensembles suggest things improve out west while we still have decent NA blocking, but of course that is 10+ days out, so it remains to be seen.

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21 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I can’t get excited about the upcoming pattern with the lack of a good moisture source.  We can squeeze out a nice snow in January cold with a northern stream, but when I loop the PW values, ugh.

Yeah it looks pretty paltry once the pattern gets "good".

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28 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I can’t get excited about the upcoming pattern with the lack of a good moisture source.  We can squeeze out a nice snow in January cold with a northern stream, but when I loop the PW values, ugh.

I can't argue in principle makes total sense. But how come so many of our great historic march blocking patterns in the past seemed to lack much Pacific or gulf help. A lot of the great march storms like 58, 2 of the 1960, 1962, one of the 1965 storms were kind of like what we're dealing with here...northern stream systems being forced under a block west to east and amplifying along the east coast without a whole lot of stj help. 

Dont take this to be saying your wrong, because when I did the analogs I was kind of shocked to see how it looked...so you think we just got lucky a lot during that period or is there something about march (like shorter wavelengths and baroclinicity) that allows that look to work more often? 

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Just now, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said:

incoming mantoba mauler 

The last 3 runs the gfs is increasing the ridging behind the day 6 rainstorm and the day 10 threat. I don't like that at all. If that continues we will have the same exact problem we have with this first wave. The temps are bleeding the wrong way each run. The upper low will probably be forced to dig but it might not even amount to much without any cold around.  You end up with a disorganized system because there is no baroclinicity and no cold to create good lift from WAA. All you have left is to hope the upper energy alone is enough to bomb something and you get some h5 love. That would be a disappointing outcome. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The last 3 runs the gfs is increasing the ridging behind the day 6 rainstorm and the day 10 threat. I don't like that at all. If that continues we will have the same exact problem we have with this first wave. The temps are bleeding the wrong way each run. The upper low will probably be forced to dig but it might not even amount to much without any cold around.  You end up with a disorganized system because there is no baroclinicity and no cold to create good lift from WAA. All you have left is to hope the upper energy alone is enough to bomb something and you get some h5 love. That would be a disappointing outcome. 

Yup.each run is getting progressively worse with things.   It's still far out there, so plenty of time for things to go back the other way with a positive outcome. 

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8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.each run is getting progressively worse with things.   It's still far out there, so plenty of time for things to go back the other way with a positive outcome. 

I haven't even looked at the surface but just from the h5 I can tell it's worse.  

Yea I'm not close to throwing any towel. But it's been 3 consecutive runs with that trend so it's worth noting at least. 

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

How did it get there though. Did it bomb further south or retrograde. Big difference because on that frame the low is vertically stacked so the intensification process and cooling on the west side is done and the ccb is likely in decay. A retrograde to that location won't do any good. If it got there by bombing way south of other guidance then it's interesting. 

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

00z UKIE looks fairly epic at 144 hours fwiw. Tough to say without seeing evolution. A massive block in march can do some crazy things. Could be the type of system where it rains for 12 hours then the low bombs off the coast, closes off in perfect spot, and you get a SECS. 

If only the UKIE hasn't been a pos model so far this year. That said, it could be right. some EPS members had some similar evolutions and snowed on us

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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Isn't it good we're getting that out of the way now so they can trend to a HECS from here?  Lol

Everything you get positive...it all falls apart. We did better when you were 98% negative and pessimist lol

Lol. Who says I'm positive. In the last 3 days I've made at least 5 posts about how this could all go wrong. I just don't do it over and over and over and try to bring everyone down. If it doesn't snow isn't that bad enough?  How is rubbing it in constantly making it better?  

I haven't changed. Somehow many just went so full tilt negative that my old fashioned pragmatism can't compete. 10 years ago people used to get on me for posting my "what can go wrong" analysis. Now those just blends into the noise and people get on me for posting anything hopeful. 

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3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Great question..and I'm not totally sure either but at hour 120 isobars are already  bending near the Outer Banks hinting at a transfer ..

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

Yea I wasn't expecting an answer. What happens between those panels is the answer and no way to know. Just pointing out we can't tell how significant that is. It looks pretty but if it got there the wrong way it won't matter. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Yea I wasn't expecting an answer. What happens between those panels is the answer and no way to know. Just pointing out we can't tell how significant that is. It looks pretty but if it got there the wrong way it won't matter. 

Pretty sure weather.us has the UKMET in between 120 and 144

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17 minutes ago, Ji said:
21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
Isn't it good we're getting that out of the way now so they can trend to a HECS from here?  Lol

Everything you get positive...it all falls apart. We did better when you were 98% negative and pessimist lol

Let's test your theory. I've been uber negative on the day 5-6 threat from go. I've never been positive at all on that and continue to be pessimistic and say so every run. So if that becomes so big bomb then maybe your right and I'll just sh!t all over every threat and we will have 2010 every year. Deal?

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