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Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion


Ji

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9 minutes ago, Climate175 said:

It seems like the March 1st-2nd threat seems more like one to southern New-England and the March 6th-7th threat is more favorable for us in the Mid-Atlantic region. Wxrisk is saying the March 6th-7th threat will depend on how the first threat behaves.

It will in that the March 2 system hanging around too long could wreck the setup for the next system.  

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:
33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:
It will in that the March 2 system hanging around too long could wreck the setup for the next system.  

Just when u think we clear one obstacle...here is another. Its a wonder how its ever snowed here.

I did LOL at that... and its why we go long stretches without warning criteria snows...thats our climo... big hits every so often with long droughts in between.  But in this case I doubt the euro op evolution at day 7-9 so I also doubt its way to fail after.  But that would be one way to fail...day 7 storm goes north but then slowly retrogrades down the coast blocking anything from the west from being able to amplfy.  It would also open the door to ridging to pop just to our west and could even screw up the LONG LONG range.  But again...I doubt it even has day 7 right so I am not worried about what it might do day 12.  

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Not that it means much but there was very nice pickup on the 15 day snowfall means just north/west of the cities and even the cities saw a +1 inch increase. You would almost think the EPS is starting to sniff out the potential with the coming blocking.

eta: Some really nice solutions starting to pop up in the mountains. Just don't look at the control run.

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8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not that it means much but there was very nice pickup on the 15 day snowfall means just north/west of the cities and even the cities saw a +1 inch increase. You would almost think the EPS is starting to sniff out the potential with the coming blocking.

eta: Some really nice solutions starting to pop up in the mountains. Just don't look at the control run.

Lots of pinks and mint greens on the individual EPS member snow maps over the mountains.  

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5 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Yea...the first weenie run of the eps.  Many opportunities and lots of big hits...I'm a bit surprised at the uptick for the day 6-7 deal.  Pretty dramatic imo.  

I scanned through them. Most are dynamically driven borderline temp solutions. Snow output is way way overstated on the panels. A couple in there are legit though but few and far between. This is one of those times where snow output is very misleading. There's a way to win I suppose but I'm mostly interested from the 6th onward. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I scanned through them. Most are dynamically driven borderline temp solutions. Snow output is way way overstated on the panels. A couple in there are legit though but few and far between. This is one of those times where snow output is very misleading. There's a way to win I suppose but I'm mostly interested from the 6th onward. 

Yep, I agree.  Took a look at them as well.  Gonna have to be a dynamic bomb to overcome temps...all or nothing deal.  Interesting to see that some of the members that smack us with the first one seem to setting up nicely for the one after.  Wait and see but a good trend from what has been a stingy eps lately. 

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS crossed into weenie territory. Figures out more ways to snow on us with the first system (I continue to think this is very unlikely) but the next one in line is gaining steam. Good run. 

Good summary, describes where I stand also.

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

It will in that the March 2 system hanging around too long could wreck the setup for the next system.  

Now that WOULD be gut punch given how, at least right now, it appears we could have everything else together, smh So now I'm gonna watch the Friday storm more nervously...If that does nothing but rain on is and then messes up the what could be our biggest chance....sweet mercy above (but at least we'd know a few days in advance, right? Lol) Get that first storm outta here!! (Unless it pulls some kind of miracle...and even then I'm not sure I'd want it at the expense of the second system)

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1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

About time someone starts planning a chase out to the mountains?@C.A.P.E.?

 

I have been trying to get to Canaan since mid December. Hasn't worked out. I mean, I had to choose Rehoboth over WV in early January :P 

With my work schedule coming up, its doable, but only if it falls on a weekend. But if we are talking epic snow there, and the usual crap in the lower elevations, hell yeah I would make the effort.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Just some slight differences on the 18z GFS at h5 and with the low position on the 6th. I will risk stating the obvious... we just cant know yet.

I doubt you will get the same solution 10 days out between runs lol

Lol I know. Its happy hour.

At least we somehow manage some snow this run, even if it is weak sauce.

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5 minutes ago, Ji said:
9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:
Just some slight differences on the 18z GFS at h5 and with the low position on the 6th. I will risk stating the obvious... we just cant know yet.

I doubt you will get the same solution 10 days out between runs lol

Not gonna lie..not liking the 18z..nope I don’t like it...none of it

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