Morch Madness Negative NAO Long Range discussion

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Good write up. Had many of the same thoughts as well after looking over the runs. Might argue somewhat about the running up the coast part though. Looks to be an active southern jet and I could see something running up from the SE before getting shunted out around the NJ/Del coast. I also would not be surprised to see a stalling and/or retrograding low off the coast, so in other words I would not think that any system going through would automatically be a quick progressive one.

I definitely didn't mean progressive.  Sorry I guess I wasnt clear.  A system could definitely be cut off and stall...and some latitude gain is possible...but given the extreme location of the blocking around then its very unlikely something will take a northeast trajectory up the coast like some typical noreasters.  This is more likely something that bombs, hits an area...could even be a large area of coverage given the strength...but then moves mostly east and out.  58 and 62 both did that...and were long duration events...but didnt gain much latitude.  Even 96 gained latitude from its origin as a stj wave but then hit a wall off the mid atlantic.  This seems more likely to be more northern stream initiated...with some stj involvement so more like those other examples than 1996.  The threat of a run the coast storm would probably be later on if the blocking weakens and a pna ridge pops...thats the right setup for that imo.  

[stormtracker]

I'm fine with where the GFS is rn.  It looks like the threat is legit.  For this lead, as long as it's there and in the vicinity, I'm good.

[Interstate]

10 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

A 990 off hatteras is still a boom in my book. Love the look at this lead. Still got over 120hrs before we start talking details. 

CMC has something with the same general idea off the coast at 240. 

I am not really worried about it this far out.  I am glad it is still there.

[Rtd208]

 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

SOI, which has correlated very well with precipitation this Winter is back to very positive, which was dry 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I'm fine with where the GFS is rn.  It looks like the threat is legit.  For this lead, as long as it's there and in the vicinity, I'm good.

Gefs looked pretty good. Have some wiggle room with a southern solution. There were a good number of hits and close scapes to the south. At 10 days out, having some wiggle room to the south is a good place to be.

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs looked pretty good. Have some wiggle room with a southern solution. There were a good number of hits and close scapes to the south. At 10 days out, having some wiggle room to the south is a good place to be.

I couldn't agree more. How many times have we seen blocking verify weaker or further north than originally progged. I'm not doubting the blocking but all winter long it's verified weaker than advertised. 

( The few times it was actually advertised lol)

[stormtracker]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs looked pretty good. Have some wiggle room with a southern solution. There were a good number of hits and close scapes to the south. At 10 days out, having some wiggle room to the south is a good place to be.

Indeed, Robert Chill.  Indeed.   Now let's watch the Euro throw out the curveball. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I couldn't agree more. How many times have we seen blocking verify weaker or further north than originally progged. I'm not doubting the blocking but all winter long it's verified weaker than advertised. 

( The few times it was actually advertised lol)

Exactly. Early january was a much different pattern but that ended up far more suppressive than we were thinking leading in. But 9 times out of 10 I'll always prefer room to come north. Especially with a northern stream shortwave. 

I doubt this will be our only opportunity. Starting to have the feel of blocking being locked in through mid month. Maybe longer. 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. Early january was a much different pattern but that ended up far more suppressive than we were thinking leading in. But 9 times out of 10 I'll always prefer room to come north. Especially with a northern stream shortwave. 

I doubt this will be our only opportunity. Starting to have the feel of blocking being locked in through mid month. Maybe longer. 

Great to hear!

[Ji]

euro looks way different for march 2-3 than 00z run

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Exactly. Early january was a much different pattern but that ended up far more suppressive than we were thinking leading in. But 9 times out of 10 I'll always prefer room to come north. Especially with a northern stream shortwave. 

I doubt this will be our only opportunity. Starting to have the feel of blocking being locked in through mid month. Maybe longer. 

Even with the blocking these things can adjust north some. If the flow over the Atlantic weakens a bit or the NS system dives in further north. So I concur.  Also agree this has legs. Shame it's so late. It will limit potential. When we get lucky and time up epic blocking like this with prime climo January and February that's when we get years like 1996 and 2010. Instead we're trying for a late save and probably a wet paste 10" instead of a 20" powder bomb. 

Please don't think I'm passing on the wet snow paste just saying this is an epic look...if it was mid winter I would be even more optimistic we get a significant event. 

[Ji]

gfs wins again?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

All time record is about +700dm

 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Even with the blocking these things can adjust north some. If the flow over the Atlantic weakens a bit or the NS system dives in further north. So I concur.  Also agree this has legs. Shame it's so late. It will limit potential. When we get lucky and time up epic blocking like this with prime climo January and February that's when we get years like 1996 and 2010. Instead we're trying for a late save and probably a wet paste 10" instead of a 20" powder bomb. 

Please don't think I'm passing on the wet snow paste just saying this is an epic look...if it was mid winter I would be even more optimistic we get a significant event. 

March has been generous recently but more often than not we've typically pulled the plug on winter by now. Instead were looking at a legit pattern for late season snow. I look at it as bonus time. If it works, great. If not, at least it wasn't boring with no chance. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

euro looks way different for march 2-3 than 00z run

It looks exactly like the gfs. Did anyone really doubt it was doing the same over amped thing it did almost every storm the last year.  Fool me once, twice, three times....

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It looks exactly like the gfs. Did anyone really doubt it was doing the same over amped thing it did almost every storm the last year.  Fool me once, twice, three times....

 

so much for the GFS cant compete with the euro in this pattern lol...it kicked its ass again

[Ji]

that ULL looks like it could be primed for an epic event in Garrett County

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

so much for the GFS cant compete with the euro in this pattern lol...it kicked its ass again

But people keep saying it for the wrong reasons.

1.  This still isn't an stj dominant pattern. It's northern stream systems under a block with some stj moisture. That works in march btw better then mid winter so I'm not taking a shot at the pattern but the euro stj advantage isn't relevant here. 

2.  We don't really know for sure if the new euro since the update even still has that advantage. It's been over amped a lot with specific east coast systems. We don't know yet if that's pattern specific or not. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But people keep saying it for the wrong reasons.

1.  This still isn't an stj dominant pattern. It's northern stream systems under a block with some stj moisture. That works in march btw better then mid winter so I'm not taking a shot at the pattern but the euro stj advantage isn't relevant here. 

2.  We don't really know for sure if the new euro since the update even still has that advantage. It's been over amped a lot with specific east coast systems. We don't know yet if that's pattern specific or not. 

i still dont think either model has it right yet.

 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

that ULL looks like it could be primed for an epic event in Garrett County

Yea it even drops some light snow for us with the upper low. But now that the crazy super bomb snow retrograde from the northeast idea is gone we can focus on the legit threats behind once there is a colder thermal profile established. You know very well that the lead wave in a regime change to blocking when the antecedent airmass was a torch is not a winning formula for us. We win once the cold is in place ahead of the system. Doesn't need to be super cold but the boundary can't be near Albany as the storm approaches. That was never ours. 

[Ji]

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

i still dont think either model has it right yet.

 

But that look is still no good. Look at the primary rotting in nw PA. The coastal forms off To our east and stalls...but the profile is wrecked and there is a huge easterly fetch at first and...how many ands can we overcome here?  If that low got there from a southerly trajectory it's good. Not when it forms there or retrogrades there. It would have to bomb nuclear to work. 

[psuhoffman]

@Ji

just trying to save you and us from a meltdown. That's not our storm. Could it go nuclear bomb down to 980 sitting over OC and paste us. Sure. It's happened like 3 times in 150 years. You really gonna hold your breath for that?  Then when it fails you will flip out as if it's some big FU from Mother Nature with blocking and all when that wasn't the real threat all along. The march 5-15 period is when we score imo. Let that one go. Then if a miracle happens go running naked through the streets. 

[psuhoffman]

Op euro would be a no go day 10-11. It retrogrades the day 7 storm all the way down the coast and it's messing everything up behind it. We get 3 days of snow showers though lol. 

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji

just trying to save you and us from a meltdown. That's not our storm. Could it go nuclear bomb down to 980 sitting over OC and paste us. Sure. It's happened like 3 times in 150 years. You really gonna hold your breath for that?  Then when it fails you will flip out as if it's some big FU from Mother Nature with blocking and all when that wasn't the real threat all along. The march 5-15 period is when we score imo. Let that one go. Then if a miracle happens go running naked through the streets. 

oh...no meltown here.....i never thought it was our storm but it i still think its too early to write off. The GFS has been steady...the euro just took 20 inches away from Mappy and Philly lol but lets see if things are more south than progged over the next few days.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Op euro would be a no go day 10-11. It retrogrades the day 7 storm all the way down the coast and it's messing everything up behind it. We get 3 days of snow showers though lol. 

the euro is a disasterous run but its changing so much run to run...its hard to take seriously. It feels like a JV model right now. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

oh...no meltown here.....i never thought it was our storm but it i still think its too early to write off. The GFS has been steady...the euro just took 20 inches away from Mappy and Philly lol but lets see if things are more south than progged over the next few days.

Fair enough. That's the right approach. I just hope the euro is wrong with sitting that decaying storm off the coast for 4 days. We want blocky but not that blocky. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro is a disasterous run but its changing so much run to run...its hard to take seriously. It feels like a JV model right now. 

Agreed. I know DTK will come smack us but it's been really awful with specific east coast storms. Even the wave last weekend people think it did good but it was consistently putting the jet stream enhanced band over is. In the end it shifted north and you got lucky with the northern edge of the baroclinicity enhanced precip and the snow the euro had over us really was way up on central pa and northern NJ where it showed nothing for 3 days leading up. It has been horrid for a while imo.   The EPS has been getting killed Day 13-15 too. I honestly have stopped giving it much weight. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Really looking like an awesome setup for March 6-8