AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea lots can go wrong. Or next time in that setup the h5 tracks 100 miles north and we get a foot. But we're in the game too early to worry about how we're going to fail. Don't worry I'll do that plenty once it's inside 100 hours. 6z still has it in muted form. Also has a sweet NS that gets under us at 348. That’s the one...I’m telling you I can feel it...will mute the pain of springing forward..I hate doing that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That's 3 runs in a row with snow in parts of the area or very close by..haven't had time to look at models this am much ... but day 6/7 still has some potential imo. Unfortunately the op has virtually no ensemble support. A little better for the 6-8th but not honing in on anything yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: That's 3 runs in a row with snow in parts of the area or very close by..haven't had time to look at models this am much ... but day 6/7 still has some potential imo. Yeah it's possible on the late week deal, but with modeled ridging out in front along the east coast and the monster GL ridge still retrograding into position, the most likely outcome is that the low will be able to gain too much latitude. Still enough time that the modeled features/timing could be off enough to make a difference I suppose. Of course the other issue is there just isn't much cold air around. Would need a deep h5 bowling ball passing south/rapidly deepening coastal further south. Probably a little too much correction to expect at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Euro wants to break our hearts... Please don't let this verify lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 I thought it was interesting that last nights euro op made a pretty big just toward having the southern low be the dominant low. The northern low still wrecks things for when the southern low passes our lat. Will be interesting to see if we can trend the direction of a dominant southern low... Like others have mentioned...ensembles are not really on board with that evolution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Euro control has the day 11 thing. But it's south and clobbers NC. The euro is probably doing its over amp thing its done ever since the upgrade which is why it keeps spitting out those crazy crazy wrap around snow solutions. Remember it did that with the early January storm at range too. I doubt it. Adjust the storm slightly weaker and that's a no go like bob said. But the day 11 setup is a more typical blocking win scenario. Our bigger threat there might be suppressed but too early to say for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 16 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Yeah it's possible on the late week deal, but with modeled ridging out in front along the east coast and the monster GL ridge still retrograding into position, the most likely outcome is that the low will be able to gain too much latitude. Still enough time that the modeled features/timing could be off enough to make a difference I suppose. Of course the other issue is there just isn't much cold air around. Would need a deep h5 bowling ball passing south/rapidly deepening coastal further south. Probably a little too much correction to expect at this juncture. While we need the better track before we can worry about the air temps.....I'm worried about the air temps. Hoping as the new pattern takes shape, a continued correction south in the coming runs fixes that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 13 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Euro wants to break our hearts... Please don't let this verify lol That would be the grand-finale of this nutz-kicker winter. 2 feet of snow in Philly and not a trace here. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 March 5-8 looks good for a storm. Temps shouldn't be a problem unless NAO completely phases out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 35 minutes ago, Mordecai said: Euro wants to break our hearts... Please don't let this verify lol Hopefully and likely it won’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 28 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: That would be the grand-finale of this nutz-kicker winter. 2 feet of snow in Philly and not a trace here. Wow. If it went down like that and occurs next saturday, I can chase to philly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 41 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hopefully and likely it won’t. You're right. Probably 90% of that will be wind driven rain, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Hey doesn't this look similar to the map the ECMWF 7 days before the Jan 4th coastal? I did see TWC talking about the two different models euro and GFS. It had a similar tilt to the snow map from north to south. The euro had us under the pink for a day until it dropped it i believe. This was about December 27 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Since 2000, everytime we have had a strong -NAO block March 1-7, -NAO is through the rest of the month on a strong magnitude of at least +150dm at 500mb over Greenland for the March 8-31 period. 5/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Random thoughts after looking over all the overnight guidance I still think that lead wave scenario is a LONG LONG LONG shot. Yea the euro op keeps teasing but even that involves a super convoluted setup where something has to bomb just right and pull down cold and well...thats too many 'ands" already there for us. Yea with a -4std block its possible...the few times in history that sort of thing happened was in this type of setup...but just because a couple times it happened out of numerous blocking events in the last 100 years doesn't make it likely. The day 11 thing is a more typical blocking win setup. Getting something to be forced under the block then bomb once the height falls near the trough axis along the east coast. That is why many of our huge march snow events didnt have a huge PNA ridge. That sort of thing is less likely in January when you typically have longer wavelengths and need more space for something to go nuclear. In March history with blocking suggests that setup has worked. But from 11 days out no way to no where exactly it will. But its there on the GFS, euro control, and buried as an option within the GEFS, EPS, and GEPS. While specifics are a waste of time one thing worth stating is the storm type...this is likely NOT a climb the coast type system. It might get some latitude as it bombs but its more of a west to east system. Analogs to storm type with this kind of blocking would be the 3 2009/10 storms, March 58, March 62. Systems where the upper low is forced east under the block. We won in all those...but March 13 as was pointed out was a fail example. If it ends up too far south or north we lose. There is no way to know at 10 days out. Past that threat I liked the trends overnight for more threats mid march. The GEFS and GEPS both reload ridging over greenland towards day 15 along with a PNA ridge. The EPS is ambiguous with the NAO blocking but loads the PNA ridge. Frankly the EPS has been getting its lunch eaten by the GEFS and GEPS past about day 12 lately. The EPS has been good from day 12 in but towards day 15 its been awful. So seeing the GEPS and GEFS look that way and the EPS not far off...I think we might get a long run here where we are at least in the game. No way were getting any powder bombs the rest of the way but we can get wet snow events into mid and late march with an extreme enough pattern. This might be such a pattern. Overall I thought the runs last night were a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 9 hours ago, Cobalt said: Reminds me a lot of Feb 23-28 2010 Was going to say the same thing. We are a long ways out from knowing anything at this point. But I like our chances with that block. That is how we usually score a big event down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Random thoughts after looking over all the overnight guidance I still think that lead wave scenario is a LONG LONG LONG shot. Yea the euro op keeps teasing but even that involves a super convoluted setup where something has to bomb just right and pull down cold and well...thats too many 'ands" already there for us. Yea with a -4std block its possible...the few times in history that sort of thing happened was in this type of setup...but just because a couple times it happened out of numerous blocking events in the last 100 years doesn't make it likely. The day 11 thing is a more typical blocking win setup. Getting something to be forced under the block then bomb once the height falls near the trough axis along the east coast. That is why many of our huge march snow events didnt have a huge PNA ridge. That sort of thing is less likely in January when you typically have longer wavelengths and need more space for something to go nuclear. In March history with blocking suggests that setup has worked. But from 11 days out no way to no where exactly it will. But its there on the GFS, euro control, and buried as an option within the GEFS, EPS, and GEPS. While specifics are a waste of time one thing worth stating is the storm type...this is likely NOT a climb the coast type system. It might get some latitude as it bombs but its more of a west to east system. Analogs to storm type with this kind of blocking would be the 3 2009/10 storms, March 58, March 62. Systems where the upper low is forced east under the block. We won in all those...but March 13 as was pointed out was a fail example. If it ends up too far south or north we lose. There is no way to know at 10 days out. Past that threat I liked the trends overnight for more threats mid march. The GEFS and GEPS both reload ridging over greenland towards day 15 along with a PNA ridge. The EPS is ambiguous with the NAO blocking but loads the PNA ridge. Frankly the EPS has been getting its lunch eaten by the GEFS and GEPS past about day 12 lately. The EPS has been good from day 12 in but towards day 15 its been awful. So seeing the GEPS and GEFS look that way and the EPS not far off...I think we might get a long run here where we are at least in the game. No way were getting any powder bombs the rest of the way but we can get wet snow events into mid and late march with an extreme enough pattern. This might be such a pattern. Overall I thought the runs last night were a win. Good write up. Had many of the same thoughts as well after looking over the runs. Might argue somewhat about the running up the coast part though. Looks to be an active southern jet and I could see something running up from the SE before getting shunted out around the NJ/Del coast. I also would not be surprised to see a stalling and/or retrograding low off the coast, so in other words I would not think that any system going through would automatically be a quick progressive one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 I know it's a long shot but at 150 hrs out it's not out of the realm of possibilities that northern/eastern areas can at least get some snow tv out of this. 850's are there. I would think you get this thing a little further south and you would start mixing with rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Looking at h5 I can already tell this run will be decent for March 6-7 deal...let’s see if I am correct. Rare event for sure but let’s see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 I’m going to say BOOM early...and then retract if needed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Hopefully bowling for a strike with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’m going to say BOOM early...and then retract if needed Looks like it's a little to far south on this run but I like where we sit at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Just now, Chris78 said: Looks like it's a little to far south on this run but I like where we sit at the moment. Agree. h5 has boom look to it. Man I thought I had nailed that one. So close but for 240 hrs I am happy with that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I’m going to say BOOM early...and then retract if needed Your boom fizzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 This is an interesting look even though we are a bit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 1 minute ago, Interstate said: Your boom fizzled. Said every girl in my life..damn it I really wanted that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 9 minutes ago, Interstate said: Your boom fizzled. A 990 off hatteras is still a boom in my book. Love the look at this lead. Still got over 120hrs before we start talking details. CMC has something with the same general idea off the coast at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Im just glad the dynamic upper level low is still there. For 10+ days out that's pretty good continuity. The difference between last night's run and this one is more confluence up over southeast canada. That look will change every six hours. I'm glad the players are still on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 East coast is ripe for a significant late winter storm. Doesn't mean we are going to get it but man it certainly looks like someone will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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