Ji Posted February 23, 2018 Author Share Posted February 23, 2018 why are we no seeing high pressure in NE canada? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Interesting. So move the whole thing SW about 100 miles and who knows. Hey at least there is some blocking. The 12z Panasonic shows it like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: The 12z Panasonic shows it like this: What a crazy evolution this is as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Makes sense that NE MD gets pummeled, and the Eastern Shore/Delaware picks up more snow than most of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, yoda said: The 12z Panasonic shows it like this: Looks about right. places on the eastern shore do well. maybe just curve that SE blue straight down to ORF to make it more believable I say its a locked in snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I'm not sure we can overcome the obvious problem of the low to our west driving well north. Even hitting a block and retrograding/transferring won't really work because big damage has been done in the midlevels already. 12z EPS inspires no confidence either. Few if any solutions that will work around here and we're getting close to the time where the basic progression is figured out and not much chance at things trending our way. Unfortunately I think the 12z euro op is more of a best case scenario and very unlikely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I dont know... I mean, first day of the -NAO I've seen this happen before and it usually trends warmer after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 The Euro has evolved interesting. It may just turn into a massive north Canada block which would be Winter wonderland in that scenario. I just think the Greenland block beyond transition doesnt make sense. other scenarios could happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On a positive note...the EPS is starting to pick up on a chance for a big storm in the 6th-8th window. Some very big hits showing up right now. It's logical that we don't score on the front side of blocking getting established. Even if next weekend is a fail, we still have a good chance for a solid March storm shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: On a positive note...the EPS is starting to pick up on a chance for a big storm in the 6th-8th window. Some very big hits showing up right now. It's logical that we don't score on the front side of blocking getting established. Even if next weekend is a fail, we still have a good chance for a solid March storm shortly after. When the blocking starting showing up the 5th through the 15th was the time period showing promise. Correct? I think we sacrifice next weekend for a big storm the following week. Hehe Actually the 6th was when the 12z GFS had the bowling ball that ends up missing us. Seems that may be our window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I think one of the advantages of a huge Block is slow moving or cutoff lows. If we can get a low to blow up se of us and be in no hurry then the damage to the mid levels by a primary would have time to "recooperate " and the column would slowly come around ..a la rain to snow. I'm still watching this one for sure even if odds are low . Lots of time too. .imo.. tracking is just as fun as the snow falling imb. Agreed. I'm not writing it completely off but the setup even as short as d5 isn't good. There's nothing to stop the low from getting well north of our latitude. Once that happens then the only way to get it to work is some sort of very complicated and/or convoluted progression. This isn't that far out in time (only 6 days out) and it's not even close to working here: Whatever approaches on the heels of this storm should keep our interest if this one goes down the tubes like it looks like right now. I'm not pessimistic at all for early March. Just not liking anything I'm seeing until we get to at least March 4-5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I need to see the EPS ensembles for snow i'm a visual learner, not just text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: When the blocking starting showing up the 5th through the 15th was the time period showing promise. Correct? I think we sacrifice next weekend for a big storm the following week. Hehe Actually the 6th was when the 12z GFS had the bowling ball that ends up missing us. Seems that may be our window. Yea, upper level pattern in the east doesn't really "get ripe" until the 5th give or take. I don't look at next weekend as a sacrifice though. It's not even looking like a near miss. At least to me anyways. EPS has a +PNA/-AO/-NAO d11-15. General height pattern looks really good to get something to track favorably. Patterns like the one we're seeing usually hang around for a while too. Might stay good right through the middle of the month and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: On a positive note...the EPS is starting to pick up on a chance for a big storm in the 6th-8th window. Some very big hits showing up right now. It's logical that we don't score on the front side of blocking getting established. Even if next weekend is a fail, we still have a good chance for a solid March storm shortly after. e18 or e20 please I like that time frame as well as you stated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: On a positive note...the EPS is starting to pick up on a chance for a big storm in the 6th-8th window. Some very big hits showing up right now. It's logical that we don't score on the front side of blocking getting established. Even if next weekend is a fail, we still have a good chance for a solid March storm shortly after. Its becoming clear that the beginning of the blocky period is going to be pretty unfavorable for our area. Initially as the block retros SW, there is going to be a midlatitude ridge over/just west of us, and it may briefly bridge. Its likely going to take a little time for the hostile PAC to get bullied into "decent" territory. Realistically it looks like around March 5th is the beginning of the threat window, but h5 as currently modeled gets much more favorable just beyond that, and especially towards the 10th, with the conus ridge axis building further west and in a pretty good location for our region. At that point we very well may have a +PNA, -AO, -NAO combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'm not sure we can overcome the obvious problem of the low to our west driving well north. Even hitting a block and retrograding/transferring won't really work because big damage has been done in the midlevels already. 12z EPS inspires no confidence either. Few if any solutions that will work around here and we're getting close to the time where the basic progression is figured out and not much chance at things trending our way. Unfortunately I think the 12z euro op is more of a best case scenario and very unlikely to happen. 45 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: On a positive note...the EPS is starting to pick up on a chance for a big storm in the 6th-8th window. Some very big hits showing up right now. It's logical that we don't score on the front side of blocking getting established. Even if next weekend is a fail, we still have a good chance for a solid March storm shortly after. 42 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I think one of the advantages of a huge Block is slow moving or cutoff lows. If we can get a low to blow up se of us and be in no hurry then the damage to the mid levels by a primary would have time to "recooperate " and the column would slowly come around ..a la rain to snow. I'm still watching this one for sure even if odds are low . Lots of time too. .imo.. tracking is just as fun as the snow falling imb. I agree with all 3. I didn't want to poop on the party so I've said it a couple times then shut up but rooting for the lead wave during the regime change was a loosing prop. If we had a better preceding inherent condition maybe but when blocking established and the preceding pattern is a torch it takes time and the first storm typically simply helps to crash heights and get things set for the next. Think Jan 16. The first storm even took a perfect track and was rain. That says losetoa is also right that very rarely in blocking patterns we have had storms go north with a wrecked thermal profile then height falls jump to the mid Atlantic coast and something bombs and we go to snow. It's super rare even in blocking but if it's ever going to happen a -4 std block is when. So I'm not expecting it and it's a 1/100 type thing but why not keep an eye on it while tracking the better threat day 10-13. Ive always liked that window and still do as our first real legit threat. We might get another or two after as well. EPS looks loaded right to day 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 52 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: On a positive note...the EPS is starting to pick up on a chance for a big storm in the 6th-8th window. Some very big hits showing up right now. It's logical that we don't score on the front side of blocking getting established. Even if next weekend is a fail, we still have a good chance for a solid March storm shortly after. Decent signal shows itself on the MSLP Anomaly plot. Or maybe its just noise. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: I need to see the EPS ensembles for snow i'm a visual learner, not just text. And what would you learn exactly from seeing a 15 day snowfall mean? If my attachments folder wasn't 100% full, I still wouldn't post it. Thats how unimpressive it is. There is your visual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeathermanB Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: And what would you learn exactly from seeing a 15 day snowfall mean? If my attachments folder wasn't 100% full, I still wouldn't post it. Thats how unimpressive it is. There is your visual. You sound sarcastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, WeathermanB said: You sound sarcastic. Ahaha. Ok. Central DE gets max 1" of snow over the next 15 days per the 12z EPS. I suppose you would have "learned" more if you actually saw the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: What a crazy evolution this is as depicted. Yeah that is not happening. I mean it could, but I would eat my hat or something. The ops are struggling with the front end of the developing block. Biggest problem is (for a favorable outcome in our general area) the PAC is really awful as the NA block is retrograding and nearing peak strength. We need to be patient, as difficult as that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: And what would you learn exactly from seeing a 15 day snowfall mean? If my attachments folder wasn't 100% full, I still wouldn't post it. Thats how unimpressive it is. There is your visual. A little surly are we? Didn't look too hard into today's runs but from what I did see i thought we saw some improvements. Big takeaway I had though was I thought the models move away somewhat from the idea of a full latitude ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Beginning to think at least some linkage of the HL and ML ridge is baked in now, early in the progression. Good news is (for now) it looks transient, and merely part of the process of getting to a more favorable h5 pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: A little surly are we? Didn't look too hard into today's runs but from what I did see i thought we saw some improvements. Big takeaway I had though was I thought the models move away somewhat from the idea of a full latitude ridge. Well we had some sort of a reverse ninja there lol. I am thinking the full lat ridge is probably going to happen for a time. Seeing it occur too often on the op runs to ignore. Check out the hot off the press 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Yes I would say happy hour GFS delivered something of interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 That would make many happy...fits the blocking scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 March 7-8 FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Just now, Scraff said: March 7-8 FTW? Perhaps. I am out of town. That usually means snow or sonething Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 44 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Well we had some sort of a reverse ninja there lol. I am thinking the full lat ridge is probably going to happen for a time. Seeing it occur too often on the op runs to ignore. Check out the hot off the press 18z GFS. Reverse ninja. I like that. But let me elaborate a little more because I do think we may be on the same page. My biggest fear was that we would see a stable full latitude ridge. But I think the 12Z runs have moved away from that idea somewhat. What I believe we are now seeing is the idea of a very transient ridge that is merely a stepping stone in the evolution of the pattern to a bridging of strong higher heights from a +PNA over top through Canada into the NAO domain. Being transient in nature this ridge should do very little damage and may be a necessary evil to achieve a very good look beyond it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: March 7-8 FTW? Have to double check but I believe that is the time period both the EPS and GEFS have been keying on for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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