stormtracker Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 We just can't win on the GFS. It's remarkable. Even with that weird back shuffle down the coast of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I would take my chances with that look. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Agreed Once it goes to lower resolution past 240 it goes to he#$ but to me that looks like it could of very easily slid under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We just can't win on the GFS. It's remarkable. Even with that weird back shuffle down the coast of that storm. Give it time. It is just one OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Give it time. It is just one OP run. The past 3 runs were like this. But regardless, I'm not vested in any solution this far out. Just commenting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 12z GFS is a great look. I DONT care a lick what it shows at the surface at day 11 that h5 setup is SWEET... yea is it possible the surface does that weird evolution and screws us over sure...but you know darn well its not even going to get the h5 perfectly right at that range...and its even worse at the surface so worrying about that is silly...but the 12z op gfs improved tremendously in terms of the pattern and overall setup in the long range with the large scale features. Its a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: 12z GFS is a great look. I DONT care a lick what it shows at the surface at day 11 that h5 setup is SWEET... yea is it possible the surface does that weird evolution and screws us over sure...but you know darn well its not even going to get the h5 perfectly right at that range...and its even worse at the surface so worrying about that is silly...but the 12z op gfs improved tremendously in terms of the pattern and overall setup in the long range with the large scale features. Its a win. If you just looked at h5 at hour 240 wouldn't you think we were getting ready to be hammered? I looked at h5 first and then was surprised at the surface maps. In know it's 10 days out and will change many times but man with that h5 look I think we would win more times than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 12z GFS is a great look. I DONT care a lick what it shows at the surface at day 11 that h5 setup is SWEET... yea is it possible the surface does that weird evolution and screws us over sure...but you know darn well its not even going to get the h5 perfectly right at that range...and its even worse at the surface so worrying about that is silly...but the 12z op gfs improved tremendously in terms of the pattern and overall setup in the long range with the large scale features. Its a win. The fact it links the pna with the ao blocking feature while keeping the nao ridge somewhat a separate lobe/entity is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I would take my chances with that look. Has the Januray 1966 look, Just amplifies too fast and not enough cold ahead of it. Strongest ULL over our area since 2/26/10, if you don't count Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 47 minutes ago, Amped said: Has the Januray 1966 look, Just amplifies too fast and not enough cold ahead of it. Strongest ULL over our area since 2/26/10, if you don't count Sandy. She's getting there! Notice the trough in the west (from previous runs) starting to fade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 55 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The past 3 runs were like this. But regardless, I'm not vested in any solution this far out. Just commenting. None of the past 3 runs had a bowling ball like that. Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: None of the past 3 runs had a bowling ball like that. Not even close I'm talking about the weird low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm talking about the weird low. gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Even beyond hr264 things look, I think, decent on the GEFS. especially toward the hr300 timeframe. I mean it doesn't look like a disaster and now I am on the lookout for this morphed zombie ridge that crosses the streams between north and south high pressure to create a monster in the central US. I don't see evidence of that on this GEFS run. I hope I am reading it correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 23, 2018 Author Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: The past 3 runs were like this. But regardless, I'm not vested in any solution this far out. Just commenting. do you know what is under a valley? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: 12z GFS is a great look. I DONT care a lick what it shows at the surface at day 11 that h5 setup is SWEET... yea is it possible the surface does that weird evolution and screws us over sure...but you know darn well its not even going to get the h5 perfectly right at that range...and its even worse at the surface so worrying about that is silly...but the 12z op gfs improved tremendously in terms of the pattern and overall setup in the long range with the large scale features. Its a win. yup. I had to look at 500 panels to see what the heck was going on....and then I was all better.... for the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: do you know what is under a valley? We are close to finding out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Euro and GGEM in agreement with the cutoff in the SW day 5. GFS ejects it way quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 interesting look on Euro at 168 on TT..988 low somewhere near the coast of VA...850s not great but I think it looks interesting...I think..I have to say that every time because just when I think something looks good I realize I wasn't thinking correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 988 benchmark, blizzard warnings are going up soon, just got off the phone with sterling, archer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 someone is going to come in and say "to get too excited anyone, its a nice cold rain"...but hey its something to track...and its about 7 days away so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 bit of a block on the emcwf. a week out now, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: Ill take my chances with a 988 low south of OC nice snowstorm for Northern / east Md. Low position not that different from Oz. Did you just basically say NE MD gets pummeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Ill take my chances with a 988 low south of OC nice snowstorm for Northern / east Md. Low position not that different from Oz. Um... not with 2m temps 45-50 degrees ETA: I see... first part is rain... after hr 174 or so then comes the snow... but 2mT are in the mid 30s fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 i mean it's not going to happen exactly as shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 inverted trof from the hudson bay to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Um... not with 2m temps 45-50 degrees Figured that. Although I could see that as depicted it might be better far NW. seems far in time to worry too much but it does look much different than GFS same time frame. We just don’t have the cold in place. Even if it was off ORF I wonder if it really would be better. Probably not as currently depicted on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: Figured that. Although I could see that as depicted it might be better far NW. seems far in time to worry too much but it does look much different than GFS same time frame. We just don’t have the cold in place. Even if it was off ORF I wonder if it really would be better. Probably not as currently depicted on this run. Actually the snow comes after that in a weird fashion... Buffalo SE to BWI or so is a nice heavy wet snow band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Just now, yoda said: Actually the snow comes after that in a weird fashion... Buffalo SE to BWI or so is a nice heavy wet snow band Interesting. So move the whole thing SW about 100 miles and who knows. Hey at least there is some blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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