MountainGeek Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: minor changes at 186 on the H5 map You're joking right..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 You wanna see some minor changes at h5, compare 18z Sat the 3rd on the 0z run to 12z, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 This run is one of the craziest things ive seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, WestminsterSnowCapitalMA said: This run is one of the craziest things ive seen Is there such a thing as an inverted Nor'Easter? Was half expecting to see it decide to make the winds go clockwise around the LP for good measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Resemblance of '58 odd movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 the only real blizzard I think i've ever witnessed was 2010 feb 9, storm developed right over Eastern NJ and moved SE, if I recall correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I may not be the most experienced with model watching and such but....what. the heck. Was THAT? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: I may not be the most experienced with model watching and such but....what. the heck. Was THAT? Lol They got the time stamps wrong so the panels played in reverse at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, MountainGeek said: You're joking right..... Yes of course I was joking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Op euro still linking the ridges to create a full latitude ridge day 10. I really wish that idea would disappear. It's showing on way too many op runs lately given how much of a total disaster it would be. Ggem sort of does it too now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Op euro still linking the ridges to create a full latitude ridge day 10. I really wish that idea would disappear. It's showing on way too many op runs lately given how much of a total disaster it would be. Ggem sort of does it too now. Could you explain a little more how that impacts storms and temps? I get that it's bad but I don't understand the why (really would be a dagger, wouldn't it? After seeming so promising?) And if it were to happen that way...how did it? (TOO much blocking? Or is this ridge just keeping any potential storms all the way south?) And...have the last two GFS runs (18z and 0z, that is) backed off the idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 All I can say after looking over the overnight runs is if anyone can tell you with certainty what to expect in the longer range then they are either blowing smoke up your tush or they are some kind of mad genius. Everything I see has mixed signals everywhere with regards to the general overall pattern evolution and the major features embedded within that pattern. I have a feeling there will be a bunch of cliff jumping and high fiving in the coming days as the solutions spit out from the ops will be widely varied from run to run and may include some extreme and/or bizarre solutions. Looking at the ensembles will be of little help as the individual members are all over the board as well which is reflected in the means with the washed out/weak look they have with the major players. The models start losing it around day 6/7 as a storm system travels east through our general region. The models are having difficulties with how they want to handle that system during its transit eastward and especially it's evolution afterwards. We are seeing many widely varied solutions , many of which are extreme in nature that are having a major impact on the general overall pattern and the blocking/ 50/50 overtop. And it isn't really hard to understand why. When I see values of 4 to 5+ SD from norm within the NAO/AO domain (really question if I am reading the chart right when I see that) it isn't hard to understand why they are having such difficulties. So if the op runs/individual ensemble members are so divergent on solutions by day 8/9 to expect them to have a clue beyond that time period is most likely folly. The ensemble means do a little better but they too become very questionable by around day 10 or so. We will probably remain in the dark in regards to the extended until the models start getting a better handle on how they want to deal with our day 6/7 storm and it's evolution afterwards. Until then hold onto your hats because it will probably be a bumpy ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 All I can say after looking over the overnight runs is if anyone can tell you with certainty what to expect in the longer range then they are either blowing smoke up your tush or they are some kind of mad genius. Everything I see has mixed signals everywhere with regards to the general overall pattern evolution and the major features embedded within that pattern. I have a feeling there will be a bunch of cliff jumping and high fiving in the coming days as the solutions spit out from the ops will be widely varied from run to run and may include some extreme and/or bizarre solutions. Looking at the ensembles will be of little help as the individual members are all over the board as well which is reflected in the means with the washed out/weak look they have with the major players. The models start losing it around day 6/7 as a storm system travels east through our general region. The models are having difficulties with how they want to handle that system during its transit eastward and especially it's evolution afterwards. We are seeing many widely varied solutions , many of which are extreme in nature that are having a major impact on the general overall pattern and the blocking/ 50/50 overtop. And it isn't really hard to understand why. When I see values of 4 to 5+ SD from norm within the NAO/AO domain (really question if I am reading the chart right when I see that) it isn't hard to understand why they are having such difficulties. So if the op runs/individual ensemble members are so divergent on solutions by day 8/9 to expect them to have a clue beyond that time period is most likely folly. The ensemble means do a little better but they too become very questionable by around day 10 or so. We will probably remain in the dark in regards to the extended until the models start getting a better handle on how they want to deal with our day 6/7 storm and it's evolution afterwards. Until then hold onto your hats because it will probably be a bumpy ride.Exactly....good post! Expect wild swings in the LR as we go thru the bigtime pattern change/adjustment....even on the ens. I dont love the idea of the full-lat ridging signals rearing their heads but that is just one possibility out of many AND we could still end up scoring during the transitions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 7 hours ago, MountainGeek said: Where are people getting this nonsense? This is like the 3rd or 4th time I've heard from different sources that people are all talking about the big snow next week. Are the Twitter "mets" on crack somewhere? HUGE difference between "more favorable pattern coming soon" and "MONSTER EPIC SNOWMAGEDDON LOCKED IN....PLEASE DIE NOW TO AVOID THE FUTURE SUFFERING". Hoping tonight's runs start moving us towards something more concrete! I was hearing it from folks who are smart enough to follow CWG. I have no issue with them posting about the blocking yesterday (or was it day before?) and they were typically conservative, but naturally some people turned it into "Did you hear it's going to snow March 1?" I rolled my eyes lightly and said "yeah the pattern looks promising in March, but we'll see!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looks like the Eps made a jump south with the mean LP for day 7/8 . Now has it se of us with the transfer . Gefs which didn't have much of a transfer look at 0z now does ...due to a little stronger block and less influence from the north atlantic low. I'm not worried about the cold air yet.. let's get a decent track first then look at temps as we near. I still like the potential here..and it's all we got. .lol Haven't given up on that storm myself. Mentioned a couple of days ago that I thought we would see the low track farther south and consequently stronger higher pressures to the north and extending farther south start showing up on future runs. Things sort of argued for that. That is exactly what we are seeing in regards to the EPS now. Unfortunately the GEFS is of a different mind in regards to that so far. But if things work out the way I think with the low and the high pressures we should also see a response with the colder air being farther south and more accessible for our region. Now whether it can get in quick enough and/or cold enough if we do see these changes is another question altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Haven't given up on that storm myself. Mentioned a couple of days ago that I thought we would see the low track farther south and consequently stronger higher pressures to the north and extending farther south start showing up on future runs. Things sort of argued for that. That is exactly what we are seeing in regards to the EPS now. Unfortunately the GEFS is of a different mind in regards to that so far. But if things work out the way I think with the low and the high pressures we should also see a response with the colder air being farther south and more accessible for our region. Now whether it can get in quick enough and/or cold enough if we do see these changes is another question altogether. a solid 2-4" event would be great for moral and just to prove it still can snow more than a few hours. At my location I have not seen that since 8 Dec. But yes I looked at GEFS for the timeframe I assume about 156-186 and you can see the idea. Cold enough seems to be an issue on that particular run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd If you read this forecast, I recommend you don't if you get squeamish, and pretend you weren't following the potential blocking, you would think the disaster incoming. Trough out west, above normal temps east, heavy rainfall potential, SE ridge westward migration....this thing has everything ingredient to end winter like right now. it does mention the uncertainty for next week late but there is no mention of anything close to epic, winter, return to winter, snow potential, ect anywhere in our vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Exactly....good post! Expect wild swings in the LR as we go thru the bigtime pattern change/adjustment....even on the ens. I dont love the idea of the full-lat ridging signals rearing their heads but that is just one possibility out of many AND we could still end up scoring during the transitions. Thank you. Didn't even want to dive into the possibility of a full latitude ridge through the central CONUS in my original post. Thought there was enough uncertainty without adding even more. But I did look into it and have some thoughts. First off, if we see that develop and have any kind of staying power that is probably all she wrote for our region, especially the cities and south/east. BUT.... I did see enough to believe that it even if it develops it could very well be a very transient feature that gets quickly broken down without too much damage being done. The question at that point is how the pattern would evolve afterwords. At this time the verdict is very much in doubt on whether this feature (Full lat ridge) may rear its ugly head or not. IMO there are two key things to watch in regards to this this possibility, the troughing/dumping of energy into the southwest and the location of the N Atlantic low. But how they evolve/location/strength are very much in doubt at this time which makes it almost impossible to guess what the response afterwards would be. First off, the models have had issues all winter on how they want to handle the troughing and energy dump into the SW and this is no exception. Have seen a wide variety of solutions over the last few runs that vary from a full dump into the SW, dump off the SW coast, splitting of the energy moving some of it eastward heck even a 3 way split driving some eastward, southward and off the coast. So what will occur there is still very much up in the air. Second, we are dealing with what will occur with the N Atlantic and where a possible 50/50 low/pseudo 50/50 may set up. That has been all over the board as well with a retrograding low, exiting low, etc..., etc..., etc... And that has all to deal with on the models not having a handle with the day 6/7 system and how it evolves afterwards. So basically, when what I consider the two main players that are key to developing a full latitude ridge have huge question marks themselves I am not sure how you can even begin to guess what to expect in regards to a product of their evolution. I will say one thing though. After playing it through my mind and using some logic there is one thing I do not want to see the models start moving towards. I do not want to see all the energy dumped deep into the southwest nor do I want to see a pseudo 50/50 setup far to the south of its typical location. The response from the SW trough will be to bump up heights in the southern portions of the eastern US and the response from a far south displaced low create ridging in the mid latitudes through the eastern US. Now one or the other on it's own may be enough to create a FLR but I would have to believe it would be very transient in nature. But hook these in conjunction together and it would probably argue strongly for a full latitude ridge most likely with staying power. Most likely the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd If you read this forecast, I recommend you don't if you get squeamish, and pretend you weren't following the potential blocking, you would think the disaster incoming. Trough out west, above normal temps east, heavy rainfall potential, SE ridge westward migration....this thing has everything ingredient to end winter like right now. it does mention the uncertainty for next week late but there is no mention of anything close to epic, winter, return to winter, snow potential, ect anywhere in our vicinity. Bristowwx that is precisely, i believe, what steve martino of njnypaweather said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 15 minutes ago, BristowWx said: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd If you read this forecast, I recommend you don't if you get squeamish, and pretend you weren't following the potential blocking, you would think the disaster incoming. Trough out west, above normal temps east, heavy rainfall potential, SE ridge westward migration....this thing has everything ingredient to end winter like right now. it does mention the uncertainty for next week late but there is no mention of anything close to epic, winter, return to winter, snow potential, ect anywhere in our vicinity. There really is no sign of winter weather for our region through next week att, and the EFD only goes out 7 days. Its beyond this period- maybe around the 5th, where a noticeable change in sensible weather will occur. Even then, it does not look very cold. Probably highs generally 40s/50s with near or below freezing at night. The block should help with a favorable storm track, so chances of frozen will go from absolutely zero to at least possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd If you read this forecast, I recommend you don't if you get squeamish, and pretend you weren't following the potential blocking, you would think the disaster incoming. Trough out west, above normal temps east, heavy rainfall potential, SE ridge westward migration....this thing has everything ingredient to end winter like right now. it does mention the uncertainty for next week late but there is no mention of anything close to epic, winter, return to winter, snow potential, ect anywhere in our vicinity. It's not so bad. Goes through day seven and it pretty much covers what we have been saying and seeing. Also sounds as if they have some uncertainty with our day 6/7 storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: It's not so bad. Goes through day seven and it pretty much covers what we have been saying and seeing. Also sounds as if they have some uncertainty with our day 6/7 storm as well. yeah I know...I was just hoping for some dramatic head line like ****RETURN TO WINTER EPIC BLOCKING NOT SEEN SINCE 1775 TO GRIP EASTERN US***...just daydreaming I suppose. Snow starved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: yeah I know...I was just hoping for some dramatic head line like ****RETURN TO WINTER EPIC BLOCKING NOT SEEN SINCE 1775 TO GRIP EASTERN US***...just daydreaming I suppose. Snow starved. You and me both. I honestly have no idea where we are going at this point. Could see a blockbuster storm or even two or a major fail as we torch and spring comes early. This uncertainty is pretty much to be expected with such extremes showing up on the indice values. It will be interesting tracking no matter the outcome though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Chaos in the atmosphere with the approach of spring. However, this is the time when we can score a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: Could you explain a little more how that impacts storms and temps? I get that it's bad but I don't understand the why (really would be a dagger, wouldn't it? After seeming so promising?) And if it were to happen that way...how did it? (TOO much blocking? Or is this ridge just keeping any potential storms all the way south?) And...have the last two GFS runs (18z and 0z, that is) backed off the idea? I will try... So the first image is basically what we WANT to see... please pardon my drawing skills and I threw this together in like 2 minutes so.... First of all think of the atmosphere like a flow in a body of water with eddies and ripples and waves. On here with the location of the ridge in the high latitudes we get a favorable storm track (flow). Because of the location of that blocking high the flow is forced under, it also tends to facilitate lower pressure under it in the 50/50 location which is also good to aid in cold air pressing down into the northeast, block the flow even more to prevent a system from cutting to our northwest, and causes confluence (coming together of air flow) between the high pressure to the north with the flow around that, the flow around the 50/50, and meeting the westerlies of the mid latitudes. That places high pressures to our north. All that is good...then add in the natural jet flow to get around that blocking high and you get the image below which is close to what some of the guidance is showing in 10-15 days. But what happens if the high latitude ridge retrogrades too far to the southwest and then links up with the ridge that is down over the United States in the mid latitudes? I think from the image below its obvious what a disaster that scenario is. The pattern is close...yet because of that one change in the location of the ridge up top...everything has a ripple effect and we end up with a totally different look over the United States. A very bad one for snow. We need that high to get west enough to back up the trough in the east enough to get a storm to amplify along the coast...but its playing with fire because if it backs up TOO much...with that ridge there to its south...its possible the two link up and create a full latitude ridge across north america and then its game over. I hope this helps... sorry if not I don't have a lot of time today so threw this together fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I will try... So the first image is basically what we WANT to see... please pardon my drawing skills and I threw this together in like 2 minutes so.... First of all think of the atmosphere like a flow in a body of water with eddies and ripples and waves. On here with the location of the ridge in the high latitudes we get a favorable storm track (flow). Because of the location of that blocking high the flow is forced under, it also tends to facilitate lower pressure under it in the 50/50 location which is also good to aid in cold air pressing down into the northeast, block the flow even more to prevent a system from cutting to our northwest, and causes confluence (coming together of air flow) between the high pressure to the north with the flow around that, the flow around the 50/50, and meeting the westerlies of the mid latitudes. That places high pressures to our north. All that is good...then add in the natural jet flow to get around that blocking high and you get the image below which is close to what some of the guidance is showing in 10-15 days. But what happens if the high latitude ridge retrogrades too far to the southwest and then links up with the ridge that is down over the United States in the mid latitudes? I think from the image below its obvious what a disaster that scenario is. The pattern is close...yet because of that one change in the location of the ridge up top...everything has a ripple effect and we end up with a totally different look over the United States. A very bad one for snow. We need that high to get west enough to back up the trough in the east enough to get a storm to amplify along the coast...but its playing with fire because if it backs up TOO much...with that ridge there to its south...its possible the two link up and create a full latitude ridge across north america and then its game over. I hope this helps... sorry if not I don't have a lot of time today so threw this together fast. Thank you so much for this! Super helpful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Just some thoughts ATT... The problem heading into the initial wave march 1-2 is the ridging left over in front so there is no cold in place...and there is ridging in the 50/50 area, opposite of what we want...yes the block is in perfect location but as its establishing itself we are coming from the worst possible starting point, a record ridge centered right over the east. So the block will do its dirty work IF it has enough staying power. At this point its pretty much a lock that a near record level block will cross the NAO domain but if it simply slides across then merges with the mid latitude ridge OR even simply dissipates within a few days then it won't do us any good. It will take some time to shift the pattern over the CONUS from the awful one we are in now. A transient block can only work if the conditions are already close to favorable. Pretty much all guidance agrees on this first part...the system March 1 goes to our north but knocks down heights in the east...but then things diverge all over the place... Most guidance then develops a secondary. SOME...but a minority bomb out something far enough south to get us into the game. Obviously thats the best case scenario. The majority bombs it out just to our north and that is kinda ehh...because it then sits there for days acting as a sorta 50/50 type feature only way too far south...not far enough south to affect us but too far south to allow anything else to develop behind it. If that trends north it would then become a 50/50 and lock the cold in while allowing something to get us from the west. The worst case scenario is still the idea that the block slides too far southwest and merges with the CONUS ridge and well we have already covered that. Everything is on the table...unfortunately right now (going into todays 12z runs) the consensus was the in between (not good) solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Just some thoughts ATT... The problem heading into the initial wave march 1-2 is the ridging left over in front so there is no cold in place...and there is ridging in the 50/50 area, opposite of what we want...yes the block is in perfect location but as its establishing itself we are coming from the worst possible starting point, a record ridge centered right over the east. So the block will do its dirty work IF it has enough staying power. At this point its pretty much a lock that a near record level block will cross the NAO domain but if it simply slides across then merges with the mid latitude ridge OR even simply dissipates within a few days then it won't do us any good. It will take some time to shift the pattern over the CONUS from the awful one we are in now. A transient block can only work if the conditions are already close to favorable. Pretty much all guidance agrees on this first part...the system March 1 goes to our north but knocks down heights in the east...but then things diverge all over the place... Most guidance then develops a secondary. SOME...but a minority bomb out something far enough south to get us into the game. Obviously thats the best case scenario. The majority bombs it out just to our north and that is kinda ehh...because it then sits there for days acting as a sorta 50/50 type feature only way too far south...not far enough south to affect us but too far south to allow anything else to develop behind it. If that trends north it would then become a 50/50 and lock the cold in while allowing something to get us from the west. The worst case scenario is still the idea that the block slides too far southwest and merges with the CONUS ridge and well we have already covered that. Everything is on the table...unfortunately right now (going into todays 12z runs) the consensus was the in between (not good) solution. I know it’s the gfs op at range, check out hr222....retros the block to send a ridge through the Rockies...that’s a sweet setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 GFS is pretty much the same at 240 on the H5 map... NOT...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I would take my chances with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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