stormtracker Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 10:54 PM, BristowWx said: That would make many happy...fits the blocking scenario Expand We could uh...work with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:08 PM, stormtracker said: We could uh...work with this. Expand Yes I believe we can. It’s uncanny how I only have three travel days in March..5-7...I booked it a month ago and thought that is the time we will get hit. At least I can participate virtually. About the best I can get from my family would be “yes it’s snowing hard..what else do you need to know?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 Pretty close to delivering the best snowstorm ever for the I81 area snows for at least 48hrs while the low stalls over the del marva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:17 PM, BristowWx said: Yes I believe we can. It’s uncanny how I only have three travel days in March..5-7...I booked it a month ago and thought that is the time we will get hit. At least I can participate virtually. About the best I can get from my family would be “yes it’s snowing hard..what else do you need to know?” Expand Nothing better than the, “I don’t know maybe a couple inches here?” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:19 PM, Thanatos_I_Am said: Nothing better than the, “I don’t know maybe a couple inches here?” Expand Yes...another one that I’ve heard it..”looks like it’s stopping or raining..I don’t know stop bothering me with your weather non sense I’m trying to put the kids to bed” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I guess my happy hour take away is this...I’m just super happy that we have something that resembles winter to track. It could fail like most of this winter (though a few car toppers / 2” deals were fun), but honestly just having a chance at redemption means a lot to me. I live in MD because I love all 4 seasons. I feel like we missed this winter so far. I would love to see everyone in this forum (which I’ve followed since the days of EasternWX) cash the F in and call it a season. Ok. I typed that on an iPhone with my Jebjuice (8% ABV) in hand. I still and always will speak from the heart though. Cheers to all my snow starved peeps. We’ll get ours. I know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:01 PM, showmethesnow said: Reverse ninja. I like that. But let me elaborate a little more because I do think we may be on the same page. My biggest fear was that we would see a stable full latitude ridge. But I think the 12Z runs have moved away from that idea somewhat. What I believe we are now seeing is the idea of a very transient ridge that is merely a stepping stone in the evolution of the pattern to a bridging of the NAO and the PNA giving us blocking over top all through Canada. Being transient in nature this ridge should do very little damage and may be a necessary evil to achieve a very good look beyond it. Expand I'm relieved to hear the models backed off of that today... @psuhoffman 's concern about that last night had ME concerned...lol That period after next weekend is what I'm really focusing on (and kinda putting my hopes on--for better or worse, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:01 PM, showmethesnow said: Reverse ninja. I like that. But let me elaborate a little more because I do think we may be on the same page. My biggest fear was that we would see a stable full latitude ridge. But I think the 12Z runs have moved away from that idea somewhat. What I believe we are now seeing is the idea of a very transient ridge that is merely a stepping stone in the evolution of the pattern to a bridging of strong higher heights from a +PNA over top through Canada into the NAO domain. Being transient in nature this ridge should do very little damage and may be a necessary evil to achieve a very good look beyond it. Expand On 2/23/2018 at 10:43 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Well we had some sort of a reverse ninja there lol. I am thinking the full lat ridge is probably going to happen for a time. Seeing it occur too often on the op runs to ignore. Check out the hot off the press 18z GFS. Expand The difference is yesterday when the gfs and euro introduced the idea they did it by sinking the high latitude ridge and weakening it and then having it simply get absorbed into the mid lat ridge creating a STABLE full latitude ridge with no high lat blocking at all. Game over. Today's version is for the mid latitude ridge to link for a time but for the high latitude ridge to sustain its continuity as its own entity and dominant, and the mid lat ridge is the one that gets absorbed or dissipates...leading to a great pattern behind once the last of the ridging is scoured from the CONUS. The two look somewhat close for a brief moment in time but the evolution is very different and leads to very different patterns in the 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:35 PM, Maestrobjwa said: I'm relieved to hear the models backed off of that today... @psuhoffman 's concern about that last night had ME concerned...lol That period after next weekend is what I'm really focusing on (and kinda putting my hopes on--for better or worse, lol) Expand Don't you know that when I am "concerned" it means its gonna snow? lol There is some truth to that in that when there is no legit chance I don't care. I am focused on other things and just casually tracking. But once things have a legit chance it "gets real" and then I can get concerned. I can't be concerned when I don't think its gonna snow. So in a weird way me being concerned is a good thing because I feel there is enough legit potential to be nervous it might get screwed up. Confusing I know... I will close to door to my convoluted messed up mind now. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:01 PM, showmethesnow said: Reverse ninja. I like that. But let me elaborate a little more because I do think we may be on the same page. My biggest fear was that we would see a stable full latitude ridge. But I think the 12Z runs have moved away from that idea somewhat. What I believe we are now seeing is the idea of a very transient ridge that is merely a stepping stone in the evolution of the pattern to a bridging of strong higher heights from a +PNA over top through Canada into the NAO domain. Being transient in nature this ridge should do very little damage and may be a necessary evil to achieve a very good look beyond it. Expand Yes we are on the same page. This is now what I believe as well, and what I stated in my previous post. eta- post before the previous one, to be exact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:42 PM, psuhoffman said: The difference is yesterday when the gfs and euro introduced the idea they did it by sinking the high latitude ridge and weakening it and then having it simply get absorbed into the mid lat ridge creating a STABLE full latitude ridge with no high lat blocking at all. Game over. Today's version is for the mid latitude ridge to link for a time but for the high latitude ridge to sustain its continuity as its own entity and dominant, and the mid lat ridge is the one that gets absorbed or dissipates...leading to a great pattern behind once the last of the ridging is scoured from the CONUS. The two look somewhat close for a brief moment in time but the evolution is very different and leads to very different patterns in the 10-15. Expand Agreed. Thus why I characterized it as having some linkage, but transient. Yesterday's runs verbatim would have been a disaster had it played out like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 23, 2018 Share Posted February 23, 2018 I might be willing to give my left picky toe to the cause if the 18Z GFS was to verify. Only 28 more runs until it verifies. I like my odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:55 PM, clskinsfan said: I might be willing to give my left picky toe to the cause if the 18Z GFS was to verify. Only 28 more runs until it verifies. I like my odds. Expand Well, I would like an eastward adjustment. So would that kid from Dover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:47 PM, psuhoffman said: Don't you know that when I am "concerned" it means its gonna snow? lol There is some truth to that in that when there is no legit chance I don't care. I am focused on other things and just casually tracking. But once things have a legit chance it "gets real" and then I can get concerned. I can't be concerned when I don't think its gonna snow. So in a weird way me being concerned is a good thing because I feel there is enough legit potential to be nervous it might get screwed up. Confusing I know... I will close to door to my convoluted messed up mind now. Carry on. Expand Let's have a talk about convoluted messed up minds and compare notes...lol (nah, we'd probably have to make another thread altogther) I feel ya...this March feels like it's close to being noteworthy and now every little variance gets me jittery. But understood...psu concern=good potential! (And I thanks for the quick drawing earlier...still a couple things I didn't understand about what would happen to storms under such a ridge...but hey, if the models are backing off on it, maybe it ain't worth discussin', lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 On 2/23/2018 at 11:55 PM, clskinsfan said: I might be willing to give my left picky toe to the cause if the 18Z GFS was to verify. Only 28 more runs until it verifies. I like my odds. Expand we are due for a NW event dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 On 2/24/2018 at 12:33 AM, Ji said: we are due for a NW event dude Expand We are due for an event period. NW does better great. The 18z gives all of us something decent. Lets do this. It’s fourth down and long. 56 seconds on the clock. We are down by 7. Do or die brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 56 seconds left on the clock we are down by 9. left fielder is pitching because we ran out of pitchers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 GEFS had a nice cluster of lows off the coast for the 6th - 8th time frame. Pretty good signal for this long of lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 On 2/24/2018 at 12:44 AM, BristowWx said: We are due for an event period. NW does better great. The 18z gives all of us something decent. Lets do this. It’s fourth down and long. 56 seconds on the clock. We are down by 7. Do or die brother. Expand And we are the Cleveland Browns...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 I’m digging the 18z’s transfer from northern Wisconsin to just off the coast of Myrtle Beach. Definitely putting all my eggs in that basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 OK - I am all in :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 On 2/24/2018 at 3:58 AM, attml said: OK - I am all in :-) Expand All in? Save some scratch in case we fail and need to go to the cheap buffet. It happens. Sometimes you lose your bankroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 wait a sec, since when did the 18z gfs show a massive blizzard at 270. i swear ive been following every op so closely for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Its about 36 hours of snow, the best weve done since 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigmo_45 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 Would that mean the Roanoke area would not see anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestminsterSnowCapitalMA Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 On 2/24/2018 at 4:16 AM, Sigmo_45 said: Would that mean the Roanoke area would not see anything? Expand definitely not going to snow in Roanoke. sorry. its a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigmo_45 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 You think it's over for us down here for the winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 On 2/24/2018 at 4:11 AM, BristowWx said: All in? Save some scratch in case we fail and need to go to the cheap buffet. It happens. Sometimes you lose your bankroll. Expand That was completely tongue and cheek since this is out at 276 but I am hoping for a hit for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 On 2/24/2018 at 4:18 AM, Sigmo_45 said: You think it's over for us down here for the winter? Expand Absolutely over. Sorry. You need more than blocking. You need day after tomorrow dual hurricanes in the Atlantic Gulf Stream collapse type event to see anything. It can happen but only in Hollywood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigmo_45 Posted February 24, 2018 Share Posted February 24, 2018 :)) thank you for your professional insight On 2/24/2018 at 4:24 AM, BristowWx said: Absolutely over. Sorry. You need more than blocking. You need day after tomorrow dual hurricanes in the Atlantic Gulf Stream collapse type event to see anything. It can happen but only in Hollywood. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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