Ji Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 February is a disaster and meteorological winter is over. Lets hope this month isnt only good on paper! Discuss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Just now, Ji said: February is a disaster and meteorological winter is over. Lets hope this month isnt only good on paper! Discuss Is Morch combining March and Torch? if so, bravo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 Is Morch combining March and Torch? if so, bravo!I stole it from kevin wood. Not my invention haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 i still can't pin threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Lousy Smarch weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 44 minutes ago, mappy said: i still can't pin threads. are you able to ban me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 56 minutes ago, Ji said: are you able to ban me? No, and I wouldn't anyways. You are too well liked even if you sometimes annoy me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 My current forecast is this thread is going to be a complete disaster for at least 5-7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: My current forecast is this thread is going to be a complete disaster for at least 5-7 days. Good thing we got it started in February instead of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 ahhh morch - it has its origins from the utterly insane march of 2012 where it was in the mid 80s all the way up into French Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My current forecast is this thread is going to be a complete disaster for at least 5-7 days. its a disaster today. Not weather post so far in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: its a disaster today. Not weather post so far in it Its going to be 80 today. Probably no one cares about a monster -NAO that might increase the odds of snow in another 10 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 I don't think I've ever seen the same storm track too far northwest and too far southeast. Thats what the 12z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 no reason to debate the details but I will say I like the h5 look of hour 234 on the GFS op. just something of interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Just now, Amped said: I don't think I've ever seen the same storm track too far northwest and too far southeast. Thats what the 12z GFS shows. Yes that was what I thought..way to far out on op run to debate but h5 showed some promise to me..of course maybe I am wrong...its different than 6z as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Will be interesting to see if the gefs give more of a signal for D8/9. Some positive changes on the op run for that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: if so, it will be interesting to see how the models respond each day. That's what intrigues me the most. you can see the differences in the op runs as expected. but the solutions look much different run to run as the block effects become more recognized. could mean nothing but from a weather perspective its fun to see it play out even if I don't see a flake of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Not a bad signal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2" on a 10:1 map in March is not a good signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Just now, Amped said: 2" on a 10:1 map in March is not a good signal. This is a signal 180+ hours out we're talking about though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Considering it's mid-70s right now I'd say that looks pretty acceptable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 I'm just looking for positive changes....not saying things are locking into anything. Similar to the op...the gefs knock down the eastern ridge a bit more during this timeframe. As a result things are more suppressed. Considering its a mean at D10 and the 2" came from one system, It's a pos change. 06z had a limited signal with a mean of .1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: This is a signal 180+ hours out we're talking about though Yeah it could snow, I like the pattern, but that mean is nothing out of the ordinary to get excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I'm just looking for positive changes....not saying things are locking into anything. Similar to the op...the gefs knock down the eastern ridge a bit more during this timeframe. As a result things are more suppressed. Considering its a mean at D10 and the 2" came from one system, It's a pos change. 06z had a limited signal with a mean of .1" its one GEFS run but I have to wonder if some wouldn't consider that a strong signal this far out? 9 days? I guess we cant answer that until more ens runs come in for the same time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: its one GEFS run but I have to wonder if some wouldn't consider that a strong signal this far out? 9 days? I guess we cant answer that until more ens runs come in for the same time period. I agree...its one run and I'm probably overanalyzing. It's 81 outside and I'm stuck home taking care of the family's latest flu victim....what else am I supposed to do. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 Who cares? It's the GEFS. It's basically worthless. Wake me in a week or so and then you can (maybe) start actually seeing if there are legit threats to track or not. Let the pattern develop and get closer in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Who cares? It's the GEFS. It's basically worthless. Wake me in a week or so and then you can (maybe) start actually seeing if there are legit threats to track or not. Let the pattern develop and get closer in time. This is a long range thread, no? They are discussing the long range. Clearly there's nothing exciting going on now so why not talk about the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 6 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: This is a long range thread, no? They are discussing the long range. Clearly there's nothing exciting going on now so why not talk about the future? Not saying not to talk about it, but to act like one run of the GEFS that's not great for 10 days from now is something to worry about with this kind of evolving pattern is just beyond silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 21, 2018 Share Posted February 21, 2018 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Not saying not to talk about it, but to act like one run of the GEFS that's not great for 10 days from now is something to worry about with this kind of evolving pattern is just beyond silly. Give me break...To have to preface every post with every caveat known to man gets tiresome. Nobody said it is to be taken as gospel. It's a casual conversation on a weak signal that has been on the models for a few days. If you think its silly than so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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