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The Revs quick Flip Frozen Freakshow


Ginx snewx

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Where do people get aircraft profiles? Or other source of realtime soundings?

I generally use Plymouth State Vortex RAP soundings (http://vortex.plymouth.edu/myo/fx/raobfx.html)

and Bufkit data (http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/)

but wondering if there are better sources.

RAP washes out that 750-850 warm layer in the next hour or so. And then surface should wetbulb as heavier rates move in.

Date: 1 hour  valid 15Z THU 22 FEB 18
Station: 42.37,-71.02
Latitude:   42.37
Longitude: -71.02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1034    31   6.0  -3.3  51  9.3   2.3  19   7 276.5 277.0 273.7 284.5  2.89
  1 1000   304   2.2  -5.6  56  7.9  -0.7  18  10 275.4 275.8 272.5 282.3  2.50
  2  950   712  -1.5  -7.5  64  6.0  -3.6  17   9 275.6 276.0 272.3 282.0  2.28
  3  900  1142  -1.2 -13.6  38 12.4  -5.0 333   5 280.2 280.5 273.8 284.6  1.48
  4  850  1598   0.2 -22.8  16 23.0  -5.6 296  12 286.4 286.5 275.9 288.6  0.72
  5  800  2083  -0.1  -4.1  74  4.0  -1.8 277  18 291.1 291.7 281.9 301.4  3.52
  6  750  2600  -0.1  -0.5  97  0.4  -0.3 252  33 296.4 297.3 285.7 310.9  4.91
  7  700  3153  -0.6  -1.1  96  0.5  -0.9 243  47 301.8 302.7 287.8 317.0  5.04
  8  650  3744  -2.8  -3.6  94  0.8  -3.1 243  53 305.8 306.7 288.6 319.7  4.52
  9  600  4375  -5.7  -7.2  89  1.5  -6.4 245  56 309.5 310.2 289.1 321.1  3.70

 

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7 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Where do people get aircraft profiles? Or other source of realtime soundings?

I generally use Plymouth State Vortex RAP soundings (http://vortex.plymouth.edu/myo/fx/raobfx.html)

and Bufkit data (http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/)

but wondering if there are better sources.

RAP washes out that 750-850 warm layer in the next hour or so. And then surface should wetbulb as heavier rates move in.


Date: 1 hour  valid 15Z THU 22 FEB 18
Station: 42.37,-71.02
Latitude:   42.37
Longitude: -71.02
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1034    31   6.0  -3.3  51  9.3   2.3  19   7 276.5 277.0 273.7 284.5  2.89
  1 1000   304   2.2  -5.6  56  7.9  -0.7  18  10 275.4 275.8 272.5 282.3  2.50
  2  950   712  -1.5  -7.5  64  6.0  -3.6  17   9 275.6 276.0 272.3 282.0  2.28
  3  900  1142  -1.2 -13.6  38 12.4  -5.0 333   5 280.2 280.5 273.8 284.6  1.48
  4  850  1598   0.2 -22.8  16 23.0  -5.6 296  12 286.4 286.5 275.9 288.6  0.72
  5  800  2083  -0.1  -4.1  74  4.0  -1.8 277  18 291.1 291.7 281.9 301.4  3.52
  6  750  2600  -0.1  -0.5  97  0.4  -0.3 252  33 296.4 297.3 285.7 310.9  4.91
  7  700  3153  -0.6  -1.1  96  0.5  -0.9 243  47 301.8 302.7 287.8 317.0  5.04
  8  650  3744  -2.8  -3.6  94  0.8  -3.1 243  53 305.8 306.7 288.6 319.7  4.52
  9  600  4375  -5.7  -7.2  89  1.5  -6.4 245  56 309.5 310.2 289.1 321.1  3.70

 

I don't know if they have it public. I have a UN and PW.

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35 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I agree. All things considered a high temp anywhere in NE near 60 would be quite the victory for you and MOS, considering this latest nam guidance-- have to get to Northern Virginiia before you can find the 60's

I think considering the points I outlined above...it's not that big of victory. There's no special insight being lobbied here - all those points are climo for our region, as well, take into consideration meteorology. 

I would suggest (again) that MOS numbers sticking out for that day so warm like a island amid colder days Friday and Sunday that prooobabbly is telling. They are sensing these synoptics... and is more likely that climate normalization in the MOS is the real reason why you are not seeing 60's - of course, I don't know what you mean by "considering the latest nam guidance"  - that's a black box.  

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty happy this is panning out as I envisioned several days back. Scooter highs are where its at. I hoped on this train alone and had to drag Kev on kicking and screaming. The flip is pretty damn rare. I mean 80s to snow inside 24, did we move to Denver?

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Yes sir...nice call.  Meteorology wins every time....You definitely schooled your friend from Tolland on this one.

 

And I too was thinking this is like a Denver set up with near 80 one day, to snowing the next...remarkable for sure.

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty happy this is panning out as I envisioned several days back. Scooter highs are where its at. I hoped on this train alone and had to drag Kev on kicking and screaming. The flip is pretty damn rare. I mean 80s to snow inside 24, did we move to Denver?

bml_None_anim.gif

It was a good call but you were in good company, if I don't say so myself. :P

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24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't know if they have it public. I have a UN and PW.

Thanks

Yeah pretty cool 24hr flip in what's been a relatively meh February.

At this point in most of SNE, column is <0C except for bottom 300 meters or so, so rates + elevation will be key.

Radar returns over PA/NY looking healthy but we're racing against dry air as that high pushes down. HRRRs have been ticking more dry. But even a coating would be impressive.

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11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pretty happy this is panning out as I envisioned several days back. Scooter highs are where its at. I hoped on this train alone and had to drag Kev on kicking and screaming. The flip is pretty damn rare. I mean 80s to snow inside 24, did we move to Denver?

bml_None_anim.gif

Who wasn't on the train for some frozen other than kevin? It's just relatively meh compared to shattering monthly heat records so it didn't get a lot of talk.

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Just now, dendrite said:

Who wasn't on the train for some frozen other than kevin? It's just relatively meh compared to shattering monthly heat records so it didn't get a lot of talk.

On the 19th? Dude it was me and the Pope, no models had it, Bob and Kev thought I was nutz. everything was in PA. I posted a GEFS CAD look and said I could see that PA stuff bleeding east and then posted I wonder what day the media will pick up on this. 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

On the 19th? Dude it was me and the Pope, no models had it, Bob and Kev thought I was nutz. everything was in PA. I posted a GEFS CAD look and said I could see that PA stuff bleeding east and then posted I wonder what day the media will pick up on this. 

Give yourself an attaboy.

giphy.gif

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Just now, dendrite said:

It's rinkydink overrunning. I've been telling my mom for days she may see some snow. idk...it just wasn't a big deal to me considering we're in Feb.

Yea, the frozen precip aspect is garbage...as threats go, it wasn't worth any mind imo.

Just notable in that it came on the heels of such warmth.

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