Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Sleet at office in Farmington. Everything on track for a fun mid afternoon and evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Yea and guidance was pretty clear with high temps being in the am, and dropping throughout the day... No doubt, but the temps at midnight were higher than modeled I think. I understand temps will drop during the morning as we wetbulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowHole413 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Sleet in Amherst right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Heh, not really what I said... "...that's wee-bit of a warm bust over forecaster interpretations I saw yesterday, ..." I didn't honestly look at the discrete thermal layout of the various guidance' yesterday, wrt to this cold intrusion today. I was too pre-occupied by the magnificent record warmth, which is far and a way the bigger news story this week. For me anyway... I apologize for misinterpreting your words. The last two days were really remarkable. This crud we are getting today is pretty forgettable without the previous warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I apologize for misinterpreting your words. The last two days were really remarkable. This crud we are getting today is pretty forgettable without the previous warmth OH absolutely! ...without the juxtaposition so fresh in the mind and acclimation sown in off those two days, this is just hoi polloi weather in a typical February doldrum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 48 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Dewpoint just went from 40 to 28 in like 30 minutes....that should help the 42 degree air temp Mine did that between 2am and 3am. Went from 41 to 26. Than went down to 17F the next hour. It's back up to 29F as we advect moisture in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Are we really only getting a T-2"? Radar looks pretty good coming out of NY and PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sleet at office in Farmington. Everything on track for a fun mid afternoon and evening I thought the ridge was keeping this north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: I thought the ridge was keeping this north? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Just now, CT Rain said: I thought the ridge was keeping this north? He hasn't had a good year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 42 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Hmmm 60 on Sat? Where...? Mm, may not be the right thread for this.. buut, NAM and GFS based MOS' are 57 and 59 for that day respectively for a generic location, such as Bedford Mass, and balancing those numbers against the following factors: a .. that is dented a little by climatology in machine/interpretive automation even as near as 2 or 3 days out b .. synoptically, the wind backs NW which is a drying component in our climate. as well, doing so amid lowering RH advection anyway... Regardless of cloud products, ...probably the ceilings lift out. c .. we are still running 850 mb/lower tropos. thickness anomalies, albeit modest... but, with post Feb 15 sun getting quite warm feeding particularly into the synoptic argument ... d .. from about mid Feb until early Aug... MOS/machine -based guidance types will typically bust cool under all those circumstances working above. Perhaps in 100 years of gathered statistics the MOS will finally have the A.I. to assess those super-adiabat afternoons more precisely... but of course, (haha), by then, if humanity hasn't annihilated it's self in our brand of the Cosmos' 'universal kill-switch' applied to all advancing technological species... we may very well be controlling the quantum momentum states of the atmosphere's actual fluid medium, effectively rendering such predictive tools as obsolete. Ha, you know... Scott calls those afternoons, "down-slope dandies" ...which I like... This Saturday smacks pretty clearly of that ...powdered over achievement on temp, just add liquid sunshine. And, it would probably feel that way too... It's light winds... and warm sun when walking out of doors, if that's in the "nook" affect, it will feel it - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Sleet starting in New Britain CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Ha... the Swiss wants to drop 3-5” south of the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Pope still calling for a blizzard in boston harbor afternoon Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 ... the ground's too warm cuz-a yesterday - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Radar def looks very good but keep in mind this is going to be fighting the polar high to the north which is supplying a lot of dry air. So that does help in wetbulbing the column but it will also tend to try and chew up the precip a bit too. So you end up with some virga on the northern side which makes the radar presentation look better than ground truth. Still, the frontogenetic forcing is pretty strong so we will have to watch for an east-west band of moderate to heavy snow later this afternoon. It really could go either way...trace to a couple inches or someone gets lucky in a band and we see some 3-4" amounts. Nowcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Ha... the Swiss wants to drop 3-5” south of the pike Yeah that is aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah that is aggressive. I’m selling that, obviously. Models seem to have come in a bit snowier though so maybe even some light accumulations down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm, may not be the right thread for this.. buut, NAM and GFS based MOS' are 57 and 59 for that day respectively for a generic location, such as Bedford Mass, and balancing those numbers against the following factors: a .. that is dented a little by climatology in machine/interpretive automation even as near as 2 or 3 days out b .. synoptically, the wind backs NW which is a drying component in our climate. as well, doing so amid lowering RH advection anyway... Regardless of cloud products, ...probably the ceilings lift out. c .. we are still running 850 mb/lower tropos. thickness anomalies, albeit modest... but, with post Feb 15 sun getting quite warm feeding particularly into the synoptic argument ... d .. from about mid Feb until early Aug... MOS/machine -based guidance types will typically bust cool under all those circumstances working above. Perhaps in 100 years of gathered statistics the MOS will finally have the A.I. to assess those super-adiabat afternoons more precisely... but of course, (haha), by then, if humanity hasn't annihilated it's self in our brand of the Cosmos' 'universal kill-switch' applied to all advancing technological species... we may very well be controlling the quantum momentum states of the atmosphere's actual fluid medium, effectively rendering such predictive tools as obsolete. Ha, you know... Scott calls those afternoons, "down-slope dandies" ...which I like... This Saturday smacks pretty clearly of that ...powdered over achievement on temp, just add liquid sunshine. And, it would probably feel that way too... It's light winds... and warm sun when walking out of doors, if that's in the "nook" affect, it will feel it - Good points. I'm surprised to see MOS so high for that location. I'd be on the downslope bandwagon if it wasn't for the combination of factors working against it - a.)significant cloud potential b.) NW winds appear relatively light, and speeds don't increase until later in the day when the wind direction changes to more northerly/northeasterly c.) Trending on short term guidance has been colder at the 850 mb level. d.) Feb sun is certainly stronger - but it is enough? Late March and into April I'd def agree...Surfaces are also colder in Feb, in general...Takes more ISR for same effect... It will certainly be interesting to see if we can downslope our way to a nice day in between disturbances, bc in my view the setup seems marginal at best...We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Pope still calling for a blizzard in boston harbor afternoon Saturday Say wha? Did Kev hack your account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m selling that, obviously. Models seem to have come in a bit snowier though so maybe even some light accumulations down this way It may be overdone, but as Will said..if a narrow area had 3-4" it would not shock me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 The temp today is not much different than the prior 2 days...curse the ocean! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 6 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Good points. I'm surprised to see MOS so high for that location. I'd be on the downslope bandwagon if it wasn't for the combination of factors working against it - a.)significant cloud potential b.) NW winds appear relatively light, and speeds don't increase until later in the day when the wind direction changes to more northerly/northeasterly c.) Trending on short term guidance has been colder at the 850 mb level. It will certainly be interesting to see if we can downslope our way to a nice day in between disturbances, bc in my view the setup seems marginal at best...We'll see... In fact, ...the warmest temperatures over SNE would be the exit points along the S -E coastal regions (save for any location that might locally breeze back onshore) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I haven’t had a good year. No you haven’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: In fact, ...the warmest temperatures over SNE would be the exit points along the S -E coastal regions (save for any location that might locally breeze back onshore) I agree. All things considered a high temp anywhere in NE near 60 would be quite the victory for you and MOS, considering this latest nam guidance-- have to get to Northern Virginiia before you can find the 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It may be overdone, but as Will said..if a narrow area had 3-4" it would not shock me either. I have had little faith in the Super Swiss for snow totals. Temps seem good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Aircraft profiles are interesting. Very cold at 925. Lots of dry air though. Still fairly warm in CT at 925 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 Tip still has a woody from yesterday but this thread is more about the radical switch up, Yesterday's gone with the wind. Nice fronto setting up. Will you might want to get the trip in tomorrow, looks pretty sweet there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Tip still has a woody from yesterday but this thread is more about the radical switch up, Yesterday's gone with the wind. Nice fronto setting up. Will you might want to get the trip in tomorrow, looks pretty sweet there. Congrats Freak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2018 Author Share Posted February 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Aircraft profiles are interesting. Very cold at 925. Lots of dry air though. Still fairly warm in CT at 925 though. Dewpoint depressions are pretty crazy no wonder people are sleeting in CT with 925's up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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