The Revs quick Flip Frozen Freakshow

[HoarfrostHubb]

NAM gives MPM 4-6”

[HIPPYVALLEY]

11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

NAM gives MPM 4-6”

 It's been a little bit schizophrenic but what else is new?

[Ginx snewx]

Helluva way to run a Torch

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like a coating to possibly as much as 2" in spots north of the pike, up to an inch south.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Not expecting any accumulation down here... but wouldn’t be surprised to see some frozen.

[CoastalWx]

We snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

Had a sleet/rain mix shower during my run.

39.8/28

We 1-3”

[ineedsnow]

Pretty meh but a heck of a change from yesterday!!!

[CoastalWx]

Swiss model gone wild. That seems way too aggressive.

[TalcottWx]

Expecting T-1" at Logan

[Whineminster]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Swiss model gone wild. That seems way too aggressive.

4"?

[moneypitmike]

Returning from a few days of work in FL.  Glad I was experiencing February summer warmth where you're supposed to have February summer warmth.  Looking forward to returning to a couple inches this evening.

 

NAM or bust.

34.7* at the Pit, radar looks like some snow went through already.

[TalcottWx]

Models are definitely snowier than late last night.

But it's all trace to 3" so

[CoastalWx]

RGEM sh*tting itself again with this event. Nice difference from 00z to 06z. Not impressed this year with that model.

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

RGEM sh*tting itself again with this event. Nice difference from 00z to 06z. Not impressed this year with that model.

Run with any model that shows snow and toss everything else.

34.5*

[Damage In Tolland]

What does Swiss have?

[HoarfrostHubb]

A few flakes/graupel at home 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Had a sleet/rain mix shower during my run.

39.8/28

We 1-3”

same here on the way to work.  42 F tho ... which I find interesting, because that's wee-bit of a warm bust over forecaster interpretations I saw yesterday, for this morning. Never the less, low enough DPs advected in with the weakening frontal push last night to set stage for evap. cooling of falling water.  P-type algorithms (Intellicast and such..) indicate the transition is along the NY/PA boarder at this time, and it's narrow... about 20 miles wide between parachutes (most likely given the rad) and cold rain/paws... 

[dendrite]

Oh how we pray for the Swiss. I’d like to see my driveway for more than a day. 

[klw]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Swiss model gone wild. 

Sounds like a TMZ or Daily Mail headline.

[Typhoon Tip]

Saturday is interestingly setting up for a sneaky sensible gem - 

The NAM and Euro want to clean up ceilings/RH on a tepid NW flow under 900 mb temps that are +9 C...  The sun is strong enough now that azure blue sky should cook the BL toward 60 with only light winds, and should the mixing depth get deeper, you can pretty much add 2 F for every 10 mb above that... 

I continue to be impressed by the week's changeable weather.  Going from backyard thermometer type heat to the tune of almost 80 F to even mentioning sleet ..let alone snow, inside of 18 to 24 hours is not something I have ever experience quite frankly.   

I tried to quantize this against dramatic BD events in April, when lingering bone-chilling Atlantic Ocean SSTs often butts head against early continental warm spells ... winning with a percentage the Patriots could envy. The most dramatic I've witness was back in 1998.  20 years ..wow, silver anniversary of March 31st, up over the Merrimack Valley when finishing my undergrad at UML.  We were on day three of an early heat spell that defied convention to put it 'mildly'..  87, 89, 91 across the 29th, 30th and 31st. Yet, awhile mid afternoon on the 31st, there was a verrrry interesting observation on ASOS out of Caribou Maine.  It was 38 F with 47 mph wind gusts from the ENE there; at that moment, looking over my shoulder at the monitor that connected directly to the station, the temperature read 89.7 F ... The DP was 21 ... which is typical for early heat blasts that occur well prior to green-up.  This thing was slated to be particularly nasty, too.. made so much more egregious by the fact that we were through 72 hours of bath-house richness to fully suck civility into faux seasonal soothe.  I mean, talk about being set up with zero acclimation ... we were heading from 90 to 38 F ... which it did.  The next morning it dawned calm and gray, with barely a detectable mist at just 38 F.  That 24-hour juxtaposition was personally criminal to the senses ... an atrocity made evidence by the fact that college woman, fully conned by days of glory, stood huddled closely together waiting for the bus on University Ave like emperor penguins on an David Attenborough special.

I suppose by temperature alone, that would have to best this by a little.  We shaved 52 F in that 12 to 18 hours.  But, this one gets a special honorable mention for throwing freezing/frozen sky fall into the argument.  

But, should the visualization for Saturday above validate, we could be 62 or 64 F at those same backyards, in hottish sun and light winds  18z that day.  

In word... weird.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Saturday is interestingly setting up for a sneaky sensible gem - 

The NAM and Euro want to clean up ceilings/RH on a tepid NW flow under 900 mb temps that are +9 C...  The sun is strong enough now that azure blue sky should cook the BL toward 60 with only light winds, and should the mixing depth get deeper, you can pretty much add 2 F for every 10 mb above that... 

I continue to be impressed by the week's changeable weather.  Going from backyard thermometer type heat to the tune of almost 80 F to even mentioning sleet ..let alone snow, inside of 18 to 24 hours is not something I have ever experience quite frankly.   

I tried to quantize this against dramatic BD events in April, when lingering bone-chilling Atlantic Ocean SSTs often butts head against early continental warm spells ... and wins... The most dramatic I've witness was 1998, March 31st, up over the Merrimack Valley when finishing my undergrad at UML.  We were on day three of an early heat spell that defied convention to put it 'mildly'..  87, 89, 91 across the 29th, 30th and 31st, mid afternoon on the 31st, there was a verrrry interesting observation on ASOS out of Caribou Maine.  It was 38 F with 42 mph wind gusts from the ENE there; at that moment, looking over my shoulder at the monitor that connected directly to the station, the temperature read 89.7 F ... The DP was 21 ... which is typical for early heat blasts that occur well prior to green-up.  This thing was slated to be particularly nasty, too.. made so much more egregious by the fact that we were through 72 hours of bath-house richness to fully suck civility into faux seasonal soothe.  I mean, we're talking about going from 90 to 38 F ... which it did.  The next morning it calm and gray with barely detectable mist, and 38 F.  That 24-hour juxtaposition was personally criminal to the senses ... 

I suppose by temperature alone, that would have to best this by a little.  We shaved 52 F in that 12 to 18 hours.  But, this one gets a special honorable mention for throwing freezing/frozen sky fall into the argument.  

But, should the visualization for Saturday above validate, we could be 62 or 64 F at those same backyards, in hottish sun and light winds  18z that day.  

One of the more interesting airmass sensible weather changes we have experienced in a while. Places near 80 yesterday could have accumulating snow within a 24 hr period. Fascinating

[Sugarloaf1989]

42F here with a rain/sleet mix. Remarkable change from yesterday.

[Spanks45]

Dewpoint just went from 40 to 28 in like 30 minutes....that should help the 42 degree air temp

[WintersComing]

How reliable is the HREF at this range or any for that matter?

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

A sleet burst for a few minutes.  Temp here holding at 36

Tip was mentioning models being overzealous with getting the cold in, and that def is apparent so far.

 

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Saturday is interestingly setting up for a sneaky sensible gem - 

The NAM and Euro want to clean up ceilings/RH on a tepid NW flow under 900 mb temps that are +9 C...  The sun is strong enough now that azure blue sky should cook the BL toward 60 with only light winds, and should the mixing depth get deeper, you can pretty much add 2 F for every 10 mb above that... 

I continue to be impressed by the week's changeable weather.  Going from backyard thermometer type heat to the tune of almost 80 F to even mentioning sleet ..let alone snow, inside of 18 to 24 hours is not something I have ever experience quite frankly.   

I tried to quantize this against dramatic BD events in April, when lingering bone-chilling Atlantic Ocean SSTs often butts head against early continental warm spells ... winning with a percentage the Patriots could envy. The most dramatic I've witness was back in 1998.  20 years ..wow, silver anniversary of March 31st, up over the Merrimack Valley when finishing my undergrad at UML.  We were on day three of an early heat spell that defied convention to put it 'mildly'..  87, 89, 91 across the 29th, 30th and 31st. Yet, awhile mid afternoon on the 31st, there was a verrrry interesting observation on ASOS out of Caribou Maine.  It was 38 F with 47 mph wind gusts from the ENE there; at that moment, looking over my shoulder at the monitor that connected directly to the station, the temperature read 89.7 F ... The DP was 21 ... which is typical for early heat blasts that occur well prior to green-up.  This thing was slated to be particularly nasty, too.. made so much more egregious by the fact that we were through 72 hours of bath-house richness to fully suck civility into faux seasonal soothe.  I mean, talk about being set up with zero acclimation ... we were heading from 90 to 38 F ... which it did.  The next morning it dawned calm and gray, with barely a detectable mist at just 38 F.  That 24-hour juxtaposition was personally criminal to the senses ... an atrocity made evidence by the fact that college woman, fully conned by days of glory, stood huddled closely together waiting for the bus on University Ave like emperor penguins on an David Attenborough special.

I suppose by temperature alone, that would have to best this by a little.  We shaved 52 F in that 12 to 18 hours.  But, this one gets a special honorable mention for throwing freezing/frozen sky fall into the argument.  

But, should the visualization for Saturday above validate, we could be 62 or 64 F at those same backyards, in hottish sun and light winds  18z that day.  

In word... weird.

Hmmm 60 on Sat? Where...?

 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A sleet burst for a few minutes.  Temp here holding at 36

Tip was mentioning models being overzealous with getting the cold in, and that def is apparent so far.

 

Part of the getting the cold in, is wetbulbing as the precip moves in. Once that happens, you'll drop easily below 32.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Part of the getting the cold in, is wetbulbing as the precip moves in. Once that happens, you'll drop easily below 32.

Yea and guidance was pretty clear with high temps being in the am, and dropping throughout the day...

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

A sleet burst for a few minutes.  Temp here holding at 36

Tip was mentioning models being overzealous with getting the cold in, and that def is apparent so far.

 

Heh, not really what I said...  

"...that's wee-bit of a warm bust over forecaster interpretations I saw yesterday, ..."  Specifically, I saw/heard several media sources say mid 30s by dawn and from the obs I saw that appeared to be too low for eastern zones. 

I didn't honestly look at the discrete thermal layout of the various guidance' yesterday, wrt to this cold intrusion today. I was too pre-occupied by the magnificent record warmth, which is far and a way the bigger news story this week.  For me anyway...