CoalCityWxMan Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Had an intense couple cells roll through here, lots of lightning and heavy rain so it was nice to see. Temp also shot up from 55 to 63 before and after the storm, feels freakishly warm out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Getting some decent rains now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 My entire watershed (Grand River watershed) is under a flood warning. That’s the first time I’ve seen that since living here; about seven years. Already seeing some ponding in the streets and it’s only been raining for about eight hours now. Still some snow to melt off too. There are already a few ice jams that formed in the previous days in some areas along the Grand River so I anticipate there will be some flooding in those locations particularly near the confluence of the Speed and Grand rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 4 hours ago, Chambana said: 1.34” here since last night. Not sure why no flood warnings hoisted here, next wave of precipitation should arrive over night. Euro is more aggressive than GFS regarding the temperature change tomorrroe night, and wants to bring moderate freezing rain to the area. Definitely something to monitor. Multiple records in jeapordy. Some upper 70s to low 80s in the south. Sheesh. Window for wintry precip doesn't look too long in any given area, but definitely could happen. Besides that, there is going to be water on the ground that may try to freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Absolutely incredible how dense the fog is in Dekalb county. I just drove 88 home, and at times could not see the next in road reflector, with visibility under 20 feet. I have driven in snowstorms with better road visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svogel Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Absolutely incredible how dense the fog is in Dekalb county. I just drove 88 home, and at times could not see the next in road reflector, with visibility under 20 feet. I have driven in snowstorms with better road visibility. I wholeheartedly agree. I just got back home from driving on rural roads in central Will County. In addition to the heavy rain and lighting there were patches of incredibly dense fog covering the road in spots where visibility dropped to ten feet. Often the foggy spots concealed large amounts of high standing water on the road from view. Driving in a snow storm would have been more relaxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Eye-opening update from LOT this evening: .UPDATE... 944 PM CST We are starting to see an uptick in rainfall rates, with estimates from KILX of roughly 0.5" per hour type rates, possibly very locally higher where thunder is occurring. While the strongest echoes do not appear on their current course to retrack over the same area, they will be awfully close. There is likely some localized minor flooding/ponding, though we want to start focusing on the effects the current wave of showers and storms and then focus on the additional showers and storms upstream in Missouri and SW Illinois to hone on the areas of concern for significant and potentialy more life threatening flood potential. Based on storm motions, these will move over similiar areas tonight, so flooding will certainly become increasingly more of a concern overnight into early Tuesday. For now look for Graphical Nowcasts depicting concern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bl5585 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Window for wintry precip doesn't look too long in any given area, but definitely could happen. Is it likely that the NAM is overdone for the ZR portion? I usually try to only lurk and learn since I don't feel that I have enough knowledge about this stuff to properly participate in the discussions but there hasn't been much posted about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 Flood Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 1053 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 ...Forecast flooding Changed from Major to Record severity for the following rivers in Indiana... Kankakee River at Shelby affecting Lake and Newton Counties ...Forecast flooding Changed from Moderate to Major severity for the following rivers in Indiana... Kankakee River at Dunns Bridge affecting Porter County Kankakee River near Kouts affecting Jasper and Porter Counties .Synopsis...Heavy rainfall of 1.5 to 4 inches is likely through Tuesday night with locally heavier amounts in excess of 3 inches possible. The combination of this heavy rainfall, frozen ground, and some snow melt will result in major flooding, and possibly record flooding on portions of the Kankakee River. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Safety message...If you encounter a flooded roadway...turn around and find an alternate route. Additional information can be found at weather.gov/chicago. && INC089-111-201652- /O.CON.KLOT.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ /SLBI3.3.ER.180220T0035Z.180222T1800Z.000000T0000Z.NR/ 1053 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2018 ...Forecast flooding increased from Major to Record severity... The Flood Warning continues for The Kankakee River at Shelby. * until further notice. * At 945 PM Monday the stage was 9.3 feet. * Flood stage is 9.0 feet. * Minor flooding is occurring and Record flooding is forecast. * Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 13.5 feet by Thursday afternoon then begin falling. * Impact...At 13.0 feet...Indiana Route 55 is flooded. Extensive flooding occurs to the Sumava Resorts area. Water approaches the top of levees. && LAT...LON 4118 8722 4111 8753 4121 8756 4127 8727 $$ Flood Warning Flood Warning National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville Il 1044 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018 ILC031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-099-103-105-141-197-INC073- 089-111-127-201645- /O.NEW.KLOT.FA.W.0001.180220T0444Z-180220T1645Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Kendall IL-La Salle IL-DuPage IL-Cook IL-Livingston IL-Ogle IL- Will IL-Lee IL-De Kalb IL-Grundy IL-Kankakee IL-Ford IL-Kane IL- Iroquois IL-Porter IN-Newton IN-Lake IN-Jasper IN- 1044 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018 The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a * Flood Warning for Urban Areas and Small Streams in... Kendall County in northeastern Illinois... La Salle County in north central Illinois... DuPage County in northeastern Illinois... Cook County in northeastern Illinois... Livingston County in central Illinois... Southeastern Ogle County in north central Illinois... Will County in northeastern Illinois... Lee County in north central Illinois... De Kalb County in north central Illinois... Grundy County in northeastern Illinois... Kankakee County in northeastern Illinois... Central Ford County in east central Illinois... Kane County in northeastern Illinois... Northern Iroquois County in east central Illinois... Porter County in northwestern Indiana... Northern Newton County in northwestern Indiana... Lake County in northwestern Indiana... Northern Jasper County in northwestern Indiana... * Until 1045 AM CST Tuesday * At 1041 PM CST, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain which will cause flooding. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen in some areas. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible in the warned area through Tuesday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1 hour ago, harrisale said: My entire watershed (Grand River watershed) is under a flood warning. That’s the first time I’ve seen that since living here; about seven years. Already seeing some ponding in the streets and it’s only been raining for about eight hours now. Still some snow to melt off too. There are already a few ice jams that formed in the previous days in some areas along the Grand River so I anticipate there will be some flooding in those locations particularly near the confluence of the Speed and Grand rivers. I can't remember a grand river watershed-wide flood warning either. We're under flood watch in the upper Thames district. North Thames and the Avon rivers ran high last spring or winter after the melt and something like 60mm but nothing significant. Not sure the flood risk out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1134 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1130 PM FLOOD CRETE 41.45N 87.62W 02/19/2018 WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER US ROUTE 1 BETWEEN CRETE MONEE ROAD TO THE NORTH AND ELMS COURT TO THE SOUTH IS IMPASSABLE. ESTIMATES APPROACHING 1 FOOT DEEP OF FLOWING WATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 44 minutes ago, bl5585 said: Is it likely that the NAM is overdone for the ZR portion? I usually try to only lurk and learn since I don't feel that I have enough knowledge about this stuff to properly participate in the discussions but there hasn't been much posted about this. I think the amounts are overdone in general. We will be coming off of mild temps so there should be at least a little lag time before icing sets in. Also, there are indications of enough cold air in the low levels to possibly result in a change to sleet, which would further cut down on the freezing rain. I'd watch the hi-res models to see if they start extending the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 17 minutes ago, Indystorm said: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1134 PM CST MON FEB 19 2018 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 1130 PM FLOOD CRETE 41.45N 87.62W 02/19/2018 WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER US ROUTE 1 BETWEEN CRETE MONEE ROAD TO THE NORTH AND ELMS COURT TO THE SOUTH IS IMPASSABLE. ESTIMATES APPROACHING 1 FOOT DEEP OF FLOWING WATER. A creek by my house is starting to flood over the road already, will likely be impassable by morning. Only have seen that happen twice in the 10 years ive lived here. “Water over road” signs have been up since early afternoon in anticipation of it happening I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 Have been doing a little research here. That record crest of 13,5 feet predicted for the Kankakee River at Shelby IN is higher than the previous record which occurred in Sept. 2008 when the remnants of Hurricane IKE inundated much of nw IN. Hobart had major flooding of Deep River (Lake George). The Little Calumet flooded business concerns on Calumet avenue just south of I-80 in Munster, and I-80 itself was flooded at times. The next few days with successive bouts of rain are going to have to be watched very carefully. I don't recall the total amount of rainfall in nw IN for that episode however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 23 minutes ago, Indystorm said: Have been doing a little research here. That record crest of 13,5 feet predicted for the Kankakee River at Shelby IN is higher than the previous record which occurred in Sept. 2008 when the remnants of Hurricane IKE inundated much of nw IN. Hobart had major flooding of Deep River (Lake George). The Little Calumet flooded business concerns on Calumet avenue just south of I-80 in Munster, and I-80 itself was flooded at times. The next few days with successive bouts of rain are going to have to be watched very carefully. I don't recall the total amount of rainfall in nw IN for that episode however. There was a band of 8-11". Of course there are different considerations this time with it being in an entirely different season with frozen ground so half the rain may be just about as bad. Overall could end up being one of the better winter flood events in LOT since January 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1.26" PWAT on DTX's evening sounding, that breaks the record for the entire month of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Roads are starting to really pond here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Stebo said: 1.26" PWAT on DTX's evening sounding, that breaks the record for the entire month of February. What was the record and how far back do they go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 The snowmelt was slow (just piles now) and so far we have had 1.27" of rain imby but it's come in waves. Flooding issues seem minimal so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 I would take the rain over the couple tenths of ice I have received already. Roads were ice rinks this morning, temps should warm up this afternoon and change over to all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 2.09” in the last 36 hours, with another wave coming this afternoon/evening. Thunder sleet being reported in Kansas right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Hi-res models are still hinting at a freezing rain potential tonight. Could be a mess considering roads will be untreated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 .6" of an inch since 8 last night here. Ice did materialize enough that most of the schools including mine are closed. Has been a constant mid 30's all day. Haven't looked at my local river's height yet. Looks like to my south they got a lot more rain with a mass flood warning stretching over most of the southern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Nice band running through southern LOT attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 With the temperature contrast between IND and IA I'm glad lapse rates are meager or we would possibly be having our first svr storms of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: What was the record and how far back do they go? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/ Click DTX's star, it should default on PWAT, and it goes back to 1948 for in the area, they moved around a bit through the years. 1.33 PWAT this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Dropped 17 degrees in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 I'm thinking there's a good chance that LOT pulls the trigger on a winter wx advisory later. How quickly the main roads would start to ice over is a question but it doesn't take much to cause problems of course, and this will be occurring evening/overnight to set the stage for a slippery morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Some localized flooding along the Ecorse Creek in Dearborn Heights, though that area does tend to flood in most heavy rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 Pound town with this pencil thin line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.