Indystorm Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 IND now thinks 4-6 inches of rain could fall by next Sat. in the areas indicated in the thread description. Use this thread for forecasts, observations, comments, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Does look like some pretty good precip amounts. In many areas, should be enough to wipe out the drier than average DJF precip anomalies and then some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Looking forward to this event, could even be the potential for some severe for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Beavis is getting pumped....no pun intended. Sent from my SM-G925T using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Looks like 3-6” here at this point. The euro was impressive to say the least Sent from my iPhone 8+ using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 0z GFS and GGEM with lots of rain for a good chunk of the sub through day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 You wouldn't know we were only a few days away from the beginning of a widespread significant precip, and potential flooding event by looking at the dewpoint plot tonight. The deep moisture is pretty confined to the gulf coast areas. That is gonna change quite significantly over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 From the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana... .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM EST Sun Feb 18 2018 Rounds of rain are ahead this week which will cause hydrologic issues. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are likely by the end of the week as moisture continues to surge northeast. Several factors continue to be very supportive for moderate to occasionally heavy rain for an extended period. Precipitable water values will rise above 1.3 inches at times which would top the climatological values for this time of year. NAEFS/ensemble mean precip water forecast values exceed the 99.5% percentile/climate for close to 48 hours from Monday afternoon into Wednesday, indicative of the potential for an extreme event. An analog from Feb 29 to March 5 of 1976 produced 5.45 inches of rain at South Bend. WPC is supportive of of heavy rainfall with widespread amounts this upcoming week of 2.5 to 5 inches. After coordination with surrounding offices, have updated the Hydrologic Outlook that was initially issued yesterday morning to highlight flooding concerns from these rainfall amounts. Highs Tuesday may set records and have the potential to top the highest temperature so early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 So much ice in the rivers. This could get ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 WPC 7 Day QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 12z GFS and 12z GGEM 8 Day Rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Newest WPC 7 Day QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Ice choked rivers, a snowpack that had 1.8" of water in it a week ago and still a good amount...and 1-3" of rain forecast. Hoping for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 LOT had a very nice afternoon afd highlighting the likelyhood of flooding in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 If it wouldn't be a risk getting hypothermia I'd be half tempted to go out back and sit in a lawn chair, and soak in some of the downpours that are coming in the next few days. Yep, this guy is getting pretty pumped up for a nice soaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 19, 2018 Author Share Posted February 19, 2018 IND thinks rain will arrive in central IN after 4 a.m. Monday morning. I don't know. Impressive dews are still way south along the Gulf coast and will take some time to saturate the column once the moisture gets up this way. May be delayed a little bit, but once that low center presently in eastern CO gets its act together the flow should return. Supposed to be in the low 70's here on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 35 minutes ago, Indystorm said: IND thinks rain will arrive in central IN after 4 a.m. Monday morning. I don't know. Impressive dews are still way south along the Gulf coast and will take some time to saturate the column once the moisture gets up this way. May be delayed a little bit, but once that low center presently in eastern CO gets its act together the flow should return. Supposed to be in the low 70's here on Tuesday. I would look aloft, the initial surge is more than likely on the 850mb moisture/warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 19, 2018 Author Share Posted February 19, 2018 10 minutes ago, Stebo said: I would look aloft, the initial surge is more than likely on the 850mb moisture/warm front. Ah, yes. And the DMC is currently focusing on the St. Louis area as well and on southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Interesting note from DTX: Quote Precipitable water values are forecast to rise toward 1.4 inches across Se Mi by Tuesday, extremely high for mid February. This should break the record PW for this time of year for DTX's location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 50 minutes ago, Chinook said: Interesting note from DTX: This should break the record PW for this time of year for DTX's location. Nothing above 1.14" on record for the month of February, this isn't going to break the record, it is going to absolutely destroy it. You have to go to mid April to find a record that is above 1.4" for the year to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 IWX just hoisted their Flood Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: IWX just hoisted their Flood Watch I would have to imagine DTX follows suit in the next few hours, the models have shifted the heaviest rains that were north of the city to the south right into your metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Flood Watches now issued for much of Northwest Ohio, including the Findlay area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Looks like the axis of heavy rain will set up north of where guidance had it the past few days, with much of the LOT CWA in line for 2-6" of rain. Flood potential is high with the rainfall, snow melt and frozen ground. Already seeing areas of standing water with just minor rain and snow melt combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1.12" of rain since early this morning here in Findlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1.34” here since last night. Not sure why no flood warnings hoisted here, next wave of precipitation should arrive over night. Euro is more aggressive than GFS regarding the temperature change tomorrroe night, and wants to bring moderate freezing rain to the area. Definitely something to monitor. Multiple records in jeapordy. Some upper 70s to low 80s in the south. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 For Indiana rivers Flood Warning Flood Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 617 PM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 ...A Flood Warning continues for portions of the following rivers in Indiana... Driftwood River...East Fork White River...Eel River...Mississinewa River...Muscatatuck River...Tippecanoe River...Wabash River...White River...Wildcat Creek... .Multiple rounds of rainfall are expected this week across central Indiana. The rain will likely be heavy at times with embedded thunderstorms. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches with some locally higher amounts appear possible at this time. River flooding will likely develop by mid to late week. Extensive flooding will develop along portions of the Wabash River starting Wednesday morning in the Lafayette area to early next week south of Hutsonville and Riverton in western Indiana. Extensive flooding along the Tippecanoe River near Delphi is forecast to develop early Thursday morning. Flooding will affect numerous local and state roads, considerable agricultural land, and possibly some residential areas. Those with interests along area rivers and streams should closely monitor forecasts and conditions in the coming days and be prepared to take action to protect life and property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 20, 2018 Author Share Posted February 20, 2018 Northern IN rivers and some Chicago area rivers are affected as well. It seems that the heaviest axis of rain per models might be through the Chi town area and just south thru Wed. SE MI and NW OH continue to be under threat as well as flood watches and river warnings are hoisted. Extensive geographical coverage and certainly high PWAT values for this time of year. Heavier cells now developing at 7 p.m. CST this Mon. evening in west central IL and moving ne to Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 20, 2018 Share Posted February 20, 2018 1.48" here with the next round heading NE out of MO towards C IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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