weathafella Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Didn’t he go higher in the end though? either way.... I think people who didn’t take the cheese on the higher amounts down here should be given credit. If you forecasted exclusively with the euro... we’d have gotten 10” down here. I also didn’t anticipate flipping to rain which it did for a while here. Pretty meh guidance performance at least in this area. No. His map was a wide area of 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Didn’t he go higher in the end though? either way.... I think people who didn’t take the cheese on the higher amounts down here should be given credit. If you forecasted exclusively with the euro... we’d have gotten 10” down here. I also didn’t anticipate flipping to rain which it did for a while here. Pretty meh guidance performance at least in this area. Euro showed dicey 925s for a few hours in your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 5.25" of no more snow in February, with my son clearing the driveway: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 We jack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, tunafish said: We jack Another SNE only storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Awesome storm Solid 7+ or here in ASH Looks like NWS high end forecast was a miss here, until of course the 330am update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 This event will put me close to climo. Not bad with Morch to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 My measly inch has melted. 1inch of liquid in the rain guage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 As the storm moves rapidly away it has become quite an impressive system. out to our east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Now we move on to weenie WTF mode. Clearly it was a pretty crappy forecast on our part. The question is why. I was out of town and not plugged in, but a quick review of some previous model cycles shows some definite signs that we had an over-performer on our hands. I really wish I hadn't come into this event cold, but alas. The 12z run of the NAM Saturday was definitely headed into a "take 'em up" scenario. Check out the 850 mb VV, and 925 mb theta-e. There is a pretty pronounced signal for some inverted trof focusing of precip into SE NH and SW ME. \ Not only is there a theta-e axis in that area, but convergence too. I also though this forecast sounding around 09z last night (21 hour lead time) was interesting. That's at GYX. Check out the max VV (red bars on the left), just in a below the heart of the DGZ. Not only that but right in the max VV zone was at least a conditionally unstable layer, more likely a MAUL signature. Prime argument for bumping ratios up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 31 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: My measly inch has melted. 1inch of liquid in the rain guage It’s been horrible down there this year, I can’t imagine. Every borderline event has gone the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 2 hours ago, weathafella said: No. His map was a wide area of 4-8. I was talking about Kevin. Rays map was good.... a General 4-8 played out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 6 hours ago, dryslot said: I don't think it was the fact the storm was better, Its the ratios ended up being much higher for the amount of qpf that fell. Ratios were really good up this way, but it is going to be on the rare occasion that any forecaster goes straight 20:1 on their snowfall. 50% of all snow events nationally have ratios between 9 and 16:1. But there are definitely times when you need to deviate. We're moving more and more towards forecasting snow ratios grids to get our snowfall grids, so they matter. One key stat, 75% of all warning events see the max VV at or just below a saturated DGZ, but only 10% of advisory events see this same cross-hair signature. So having an advisory up with the NAM forecast soundings (see my previous post) looking the way they did should've been a bigger Scooter caution flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 49 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: As the storm moves rapidly away it has become quite an impressive system. out to our east... Congrats to the Titanic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Those midlevels can do wonders sometimes. Not shocked at 20 to 1 but it is not something you will solely base a forecast on. It's pretty dangerous. This is a good example of how we don't need it all either. 700 mb didn't get cranking and close off until well east of the area, but there was still plenty of fronotgenesis going on as it was trying. 850 did close off within range for a lot of the area. Plenty of upper level support with this one, without the classic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 As the storm moves rapidly away it has become quite an impressive system. out to our east... The ponies are getting rocked. Sable island is reporting 0 visibility in heavy snow. That sandbar will get the jack award of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I was talking about Kevin. Rays map was good.... a General 4-8 played out I never bought the high 10" amounts, but yesterday's Euro caused me to up 3-6" first call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 59 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Ratios were really good up this way, but it is going to be on the rare occasion that any forecaster goes straight 20:1 on their snowfall. 50% of all snow events nationally have ratios between 9 and 16:1. But there are definitely times when you need to deviate. We're moving more and more towards forecasting snow ratios grids to get our snowfall grids, so they matter. One key stat, 75% of all warning events see the max VV at or just below a saturated DGZ, but only 10% of advisory events see this same cross-hair signature. So having an advisory up with the NAM forecast soundings (see my previous post) looking the way they did should've been a bigger Scooter caution flag. I was actually surprised when i went out to clean the snow that it actually had some water content to it, I thought it would have been higher fluff but it looks as it cooled the snow took on more of a fluff in the last 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 4 hours ago, dryslot said: I was actually surprised when i went out to clean the snow that it actually had some water content to it, I thought it would have been higher fluff but it looks as it cooled the snow took on more of a fluff in the last 3" When did you go out to clean it up? It was like feathers when I went out at 7a, but by 9a the sun was already seeing its way through it to the sfc and softening it up. By afternoon you couldn’t even tell we picked up almost 7” new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Nice banks there. Yea, I shoveled early and it was pure fluff. The late morning melt added the water content. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice banks there. Yea, I shoveled early and it was pure fluff. The late morning melt added the water content. Yeah...not bad considering the torches and rain. They’re not close to 07-08 but they keep the chickens in the yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Measured about 5.5” in the shade after today’s mild up. Wonder how much I truly had. Maybe 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 2 hours ago, dendrite said: When did you go out to clean it up? It was like feathers when I went out at 7a, but by 9a the sun was already seeing its way through it to the sfc and softening it up. By afternoon you couldn’t even tell we picked up almost 7” new. It was right around 9, I didn't think the sun worked on it that quick............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Total snowfall for CT and verification, thanks for your reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 10 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Total snowfall for CT and verification, thanks for your reports. Wow great call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Ah...watching the radar loop from overnight, I see that I got stuck in some major subsidence around midnight from that main band to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 19, 2018 Share Posted February 19, 2018 Still 100% Snow cover here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2018 Share Posted February 22, 2018 Forecast worked out quite well, though I was a bit aggressive down near the canal and along the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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