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The "We Won't Have Any More Snow in February" February 17th Event


moneypitmike

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An old work colleague of mine once sojourned his in-person experience of the 1973 August Denver Colorado monster snow storm ... and how it, too, was gone in like 3 days!  It was 20 to 30" he said, vanished ... But it was August, so with the sun still careening irradience and their light atmosphere/dry slope flow anyway, they also have some unique environmental parameters that favor eradicating snow with extreme rapidity under those post-storm circumstances...

Still ... 25" ...wow...

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6 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Yeah they were going 3-5'' I think. I'm a little surprised ratios were as good as they were at around 20:1. I wouldn't have been surprised at 4-5'', but I don't think anyone expected a solid warning event. 

Even NWS capped off at 5" for us, which is the upper end of my expectation. I certainly didn't expect us to beat CT to SE MA folks.

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6 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Yeah they were going 3-5'' I think. I'm a little surprised ratios were as good as they were at around 20:1. I wouldn't have been surprised at 4-5'', but I don't think anyone expected a solid warning event. 

Those midlevels can do wonders sometimes. Not shocked at 20 to 1 but it is not something you will solely base a forecast on. It's pretty dangerous. 

 

Looks like it was a pretty solid low end warning event roughly pike northward in most of SNE. Then a gap of mostly 4-6" amounts in N CT/RI/S MA and then some warning snows again in S and SW CT. 

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so ...it's tough to find precise seasonal snowfall averages PER DATE ...for a given point location, I am finding...  said yoda.

Buuut, from what I can gather via the Wild Wild West of the Internet's impeccably vetted news and data sources ... we should end up around 55" or so inches here in N. Middlesex Co where I hale. That is, ... when I don't have a irritable head cold like right now while I'm typing...

F!

anyway, so, with last night's over-achiever event, I am at 41.5" on the season thus far, which ... for all intents and purposes, that "seems" like right about where I should be. 

Why do I feel like this will be a funny year?  I could see most placing ending up within the 90th percentile of entirely average snow fall for this season. Yet, casting no illusions that the come April, the tenor of the attitudes/reflections/memories et al of it, they will be in the 90th percentile of failure.

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37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Models depicted fairly well the low level stuff down south (big heavy snows early in SW CT) and then the midlevel potential north of the pike. Ripping and reading qpf would def get you in trouble a bit up along the NH border. Esp further west where qpf was lower on guidance but they were still pulling 7 spots in Ashburnham, MA and those types of places. 

As a constructive criticism too, some in here were getting premature with their calls of not much (under 4 inches) north of the pike based on the radar early on in the event. But the midlevel enhanced potential was going to happen mostly after 11pm.

I’m also happy with Boston because there was some debate with the profiles and model temps. With good growth and cold just off th deck, you know those dry adiabtatic profiles when models show 35 would be more like 32F with cooling and precip drag. And yes, toss the gfs temps.

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2 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

So, who's getting banned?

After 4hrs of shoveling I don’t have the energy to pull the trigger. At least I didn’t bet one of my bird’s lives on it.

Back down to dirt where the sun is hitting the driveway...unfortunately skies have turned from SCT to BKN over the last hour. I love the shoveled look even though it’s a bear to tackle.

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2 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Egg on my face from SE MA, but I also flagged highest amounts being from Portsmouth, North Coast down to BOS. Would have been a great storm down there LE wise. Other than that totals subforum wide were largely what I expected.

I had no forecast so I have no reason to talk. You did well up here. I only mentioned you because you seemed to be in one of the jack areas. 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah he was pretty steadfast in 4-8 for most

Didn’t he go higher in the end though?

either way.... I think people who didn’t take the cheese on the higher amounts down here should be given credit. If you forecasted exclusively with the euro... we’d have gotten 10” down here. 

I also didn’t anticipate flipping to rain which it did for a while here. Pretty meh guidance performance at least in this area.

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