weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 It's hard to believe but severe weather season is quickly approaching and it's about that time of year where we seriously have to start looking into how active of a season we may have upon us. The past few years have been on the weak side, however, we have had a few solid events but we have definitely entered into a lull period. Hopefully that will change this upcoming season and things will be rather active. As per usual, this thread can be used to discuss long-range patterns and how the overall northern hemispheric pattern will shape up as we move into the spring and summer months. It's hard to believe but the June 1st tornado outbreak will have happened 7 years ago this June 1st...insane how time flies. As of this thread, the countdown begins at 74 days!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 It's not hard to believe that this is approaching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 The excellent news here is I don't have to do Physics this summer like last summer. Just (hopefully) an internship so I should have time to chase!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 19, 2018 Author Share Posted March 19, 2018 Wow...only 44 days to go!!! But at the rate we're going we'll be tracking snow threats through June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I guess it's time to bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 Yes it’s time. I’ve had enough of winter and the cold. Let’s get severe weather in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Waiting until late-April before I start looking toward the Plains. Hoping to take a week or two off to go chasing this May. Right now, though, the pattern isn't promising for the month of April. Hopefully an inactive spring will give us an active May/June? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 Bumping this thread. Unfortunately, for chasers that is, there's not much going on in 2018 so far. It's likely the rest of April will not have much thanks to the East Coast troughing and signals are not favorable into early May. I'm not optimistic that I'll go out to Great Plains next month because of this pattern. Might have to sit this year out and use my travel money on an oversea trip instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 10, 2018 Author Share Posted April 10, 2018 Next year perhaps chasing can work out! If my job becomes full-time I will get one week of paid vacation next year along with a pretty decent pay bump. Fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 4 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Next year perhaps chasing can work out! If my job becomes full-time I will get one week of paid vacation next year along with a pretty decent pay bump. Fingers crossed! Where are you working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 11, 2018 Author Share Posted April 11, 2018 11 minutes ago, mreaves said: Where are you working? A company called Periship in Branford, CT. I'll be provided weather forecasts in which they will pass along to their shippers across the country. This will include forecasts for ground transportation as well as aviation. It is part-time for now but once I finish school in the fall if everything goes well this could become full-time and a career job! I'm super excited for this opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 I don't think you can ever rule out single-day threats in May. In fact, this Friday appears chaseable if you're local to eastern Plains. There's always something going on. I'm just not sure we can buy multi-day threats that's worth traveling across the country for. Not willing to waste my hard-earned money and vacation time to travel for 2 days each way only to have one threat. I love chasing, but I'm also a big travel guy and I want to see what's there across the pond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 May have to rename these threads June 1 or July 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 11, 2018 Author Share Posted April 11, 2018 4 hours ago, WxBlue said: I don't think you can ever rule out single-day threats in May. In fact, this Friday appears chaseable if you're local to eastern Plains. There's always something going on. I'm just not sure we can buy multi-day threats that's worth traveling across the country for. Not willing to waste my hard-earned money and vacation time to travel for 2 days each way only to have one threat. I love chasing, but I'm also a big travel guy and I want to see what's there across the pond yeah sometimes those single day threats not only sort of sneak up but can produce quite well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 11, 2018 Author Share Posted April 11, 2018 3 hours ago, dendrite said: May have to rename these threads June 1 or July 1. Thankfully I hold the copyright rights to this thread title so perhaps over time I will take this into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 11, 2018 Share Posted April 11, 2018 2 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Thankfully I hold the copyright rights to this thread title so perhaps over time I will take this into consideration. I can ban you and change the title to whatever I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted April 11, 2018 Author Share Posted April 11, 2018 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I can ban you and change the title to whatever I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 Severe threat Thursday afternoon? Will depend on enough moisture return and forcing - but lapse rates are OK and wind fields are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 The NAM Is certainly more tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2018 Author Share Posted May 1, 2018 I may be going chasing Thursday. Was thinking NY or PA but maybe southern VT or southern NH could be a good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 1 hour ago, weatherwiz said: I may be going chasing Thursday. Was thinking NY or PA but maybe southern VT or southern NH could be a good spot If you check out the 3 KM NAM it plots a long tracked SC from N of ALB to the NH coast from 18 or 19 z through 23 z on Thursday - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 1, 2018 Author Share Posted May 1, 2018 57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If you check out the 3 KM NAM it plots a long tracked SC from N of ALB to the NH coast from 18 or 19 z through 23 z on Thursday - That did intrigued me and something which is feasibly possible. Decent boundary in that vicinity with good overlap of CAPE/shear and solid lapse rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 How about Friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 BOX thinks only north of Pike.. We toss BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 2, 2018 Author Share Posted May 2, 2018 15 hours ago, CT Rain said: How about Friday.... Friday could be real intriguing...too bad I have to work :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Fwiw - SPC upgraded SNE to SLIGT for tomorrow ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 3 hours ago, weatherwiz said: Friday could be real intriguing...too bad I have to work :/ Take a severe day. Work will understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 A belt of strong westerly flow will encompass much of the Northeast. Models show moisture increasing during the day with lower 60s dewpoints coincident with a destabilizing boundary layer. Models show upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg SBCAPE developing across portions of southern New England. Although forcing for ascent is not particularly strong, weak perturbations embedded within the flow, coupled with daytime heating, will aid in storm development. Forecast soundings show steep low-level lapse rates and 30-40 kt flow in the 2-3 km layer. A mixture of cells and small clusters will potentially be capable of wind damage during the day as storms move from west to east. My experience is that low and ml lapse rates are almost as important as the combination of CAPE/forcing and that aspect has been modeled pretty persistently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 Hmm... I might have to go out for tomorrow, but it's not exactly fun chasing in the jungle. Probably gonna stay 50-mile radius from SE NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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