psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we'll see how that goes. The northern edge of the southern band could be the surprise area...or it could be an unexpected quick flip to sleet and rain...lol. You never know. Marginal stuff that starts as snow "usually" performs as good or better than a blend of guidance but there are plenty of exceptions. Rain to snow almost always underperforms the blend of guidance. I'm just hoping to see some heavy rates for a time and white ground. I'm not nearly as optimistic about getting 2" as I was early yesterday. That's for sure. I was really wanting us to end up under that jet enhanced band that's way up in PA through northern NJ now. That's where the big winners will be. Lot of 5-8" totals there and maybe even a few pushing 10. Seen this game before. The models always underestimate that and the ratios are better. I'm confident in that. Less needs to go right with that to work also. Nws is gonna bust way low where that band sets up. Before yesterday we were in play for that. Especially nw of 95. But that's a lost cause now even up here. I was a bit upset and vented last night but is what it is and it's gametime so we go to bat with what we got. Need to rely on rates and banding and marginal temps and hope for the best. I have to reset expectations a bit also. I felt safe for 3+ before...I can see how that could fail now. 22 minutes ago, mappy said: You stay nervous, it usually bodes well for us in the end . Why break character when it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, das said: The warm layer is oh-so-shallow. 2m temps are 42.1°F and the 10m temps are 36.1°F here in Clarksburg with a DP of 25°F. Literally a 6°F difference to the tops of the trees. Surface layer temps are not the issue here. Rates will make-or-break this storm. Too bad they have trended north in the last 24 hours. Think we can will a band into Upper MoCo again? I like a general 1-3" for the county, but I can see 2-4" verifying for areas north and east of Germantown with a good band at some point. Clarksburg/Laytonsville/Olney/Damascus in the running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 The euro has never wavered much with QPF on this storm for many runs now. Always somewhere in the neighborhood of .4 pretty evenly distributed. We'll see after it's over this evening but if things go down like I think they will....the euro destroyed all guidance. Hopefully the mesos are right with some qpf jacks though. Someone could be in for a nice scene for an hour or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Temp down to 39F. Radar shows snow 5 miles to my SW. If legit, it should be here in 10 minutes..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is a very believable accum map. The good thing is it will look like a lot of snow falling even if ratios are well below 10:1. Good run man all things considered. SouthernWesternFringed! I will hug the NAM3k, thank you very much! Still snowing here, barely accumulating because temp is 32.4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 39/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeride Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 36.8 here in Thurmont, it has dropped from a high of 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Maxed out @ 40 and dropped to 38 and some change now. Could be worse. Hopefully I can get down to 33-34 during the best rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Frederick Mike Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Grauple and 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Here be my map: Having a hard time going much higher considering the wet bulb freezing line is up around Frederick and the MD/PA border at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 IF IF we get rates and snow is falling and its 35 it will stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 KJKL radar looks freekin sweet. Mountains can't steal all that. lol http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JKL-N0Q-1-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 41.7/27 - nice 5 degree drop in the last hour as the clouds thickened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: KJKL radar looks freekin sweet. Mountains can't steal all that. lol http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JKL-N0Q-1-12 I have to admit, radar does look pretty good. I think we may get a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 38/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I’m in Leesburg now...41F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Peaked at 41 here in Hyattsville, now down to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Temps starting to drop more now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Temp down to 39F. Radar shows snow 5 miles to my SW. If legit, it should be here in 10 minutes..... Should be snowing there soon. It is snowing out on Rt. 55. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 RAP/HRRR aren't terribly wet, but they really nuke us in the 5pm - 7pm window... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Clouds are thick in New Windsor...we spike to 39 but now down to 36/23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Here be my map: Having a hard time going much higher considering the wet bulb freezing line is up around Frederick and the MD/PA border at this time. Looks like a great map to me. Probably the most realistic in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Mordecai said: I’m in Leesburg now...41F I live right by Old Town Leesburg. Showing 42.4 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Legit radar. Started snowing as soon as the returns came overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 20 minutes ago, Ji said: air temps before the storm are funny....i was 51 degrees a few hours before the blizzard of 93 started. I remember the storm of 93. There were blizzard warnings for 24-30". I kept hoping 36", 42". iit was 12" of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Should be snowing there soon. It is snowing out on Rt. 55. Yep. Snowing here, lightly. 38F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: RAP/HRRR aren't terribly wet, but they really nuke us in the 5pm - 7pm window... Yea, all guidance looks pretty hot and heavy during that window. We need precip to get rolling ASAP and help as much as possible with temps before then. Radar actually looks really good right now. Better than I thought it would honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Here be my map: Having a hard time going much higher considering the wet bulb freezing line is up around Frederick and the MD/PA border at this time. Oh ffs. I don’t even get into the pity gray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 From everything I’m reading, it’s looking like a shut out for all of Fairfax County? Nearest weatherbug site has us at 41/25. Guess I’ll grt out my rain boots instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, NovaTarHeel said: From everything I’m reading, it’s looking like a shut out for all of Fairfax County? Nearest weatherbug site has us at 41/25. Guess I’ll grt out my rain boots instead. unless you're satisfied with .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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