WeSuck Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Rocking 44.6 degrees in UHI Leesburg. Dear God, this is looking bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 42/32, finally overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, Interstate said: I hear a rant coming. Naw if I dryslot I'll be pissed but ranting on here while others are trying to enjoy their snow is stupid. I'll just move on to the next thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, CoastalBecs said: Rocking 44.6 degrees in UHI Leesburg. Dear God, this is looking bad. Just FYI, the temp dropped 6 degrees here in the hour or so before the snow, and has dropped 2 degrees since. So there is hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Temperature has dropped a few degrees, but that may just be the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 41.2/19.9 Holding onto that low dewpoint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 43/26 after a high of 44 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 As Bob alluded to, the ‘warm’ layer is very shallow. The key thing will be rates to help cool the column. Wet bulb temps and dews are favorable for temps to drop at precip on set. Check out the current mesoscale analysis of 925 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 43 down here in Kenmore. As I’m driving around, the sun has disappeared and the clouds have taken over. Now it looks more like a storm is brewing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 I'll say this...I'm not mad at the euro 850s @ 0z. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Naw if I dryslot I'll be pissed but ranting on here while others are trying to enjoy their snow is stupid. I'll just move on to the next thing. I am talking about the rant from the long range discussion a couple of days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Cloud deck has (finally) thickened significantly. Radar returns are just off to my west; assuming that is just virga. 40F, so I have dropped a degree in the past 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allisong Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 41/27 mostly cloudy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'll say this...I'm not mad at the euro 850s @ 0z. lol Man that would make everyone a little happier that’s for sure...still the same General precip look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Pretty uniform .4-.5 through the region for the most part. Good run all things considered. Officially chips fall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 38/27 lost 2 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'll say this...I'm not mad at the euro 850s @ 0z. lol wow..nice cold shift at last second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Temps plummeting was 44 now 42. I could graph this to show the sharp fall but you all get the picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: wow..nice cold shift at last second The weather.us map show less for the District (maybe 1"?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: wow..nice cold shift at last second This is a very believable accum map. The good thing is it will look like a lot of snow falling even if ratios are well below 10:1. Good run man all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Pretty uniform .4-.5 through the region for the most part. Good run all things considered. Officially chips fall now. air temps before the storm are funny....i was 51 degrees a few hours before the blizzard of 93 started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 3k sounding for noon is spot on for my surface temp. Sub freezing isn't far off the deck. The warmth is very shallow. Temps will drop fast once precip fills in. Out of every reason to be worried right now...the surface is low on my list. Need the thump to preserve the mids or I'll be raining and or sleeting well before I want. The warm layer is oh-so-shallow. 2m temps are 42.1°F and the 10m temps are 36.1°F here in Clarksburg with a DP of 25°F. Literally a 6°F difference to the tops of the trees. Surface layer temps are not the issue here. Rates will make-or-break this storm. Too bad they have trended north in the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 43.2 now. Dropped 1.5 degrees in last 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 This is a very believable accum map. The good thing is it will look like a lot of snow falling even if ratios are well below 10:1. Good run man all things considered. I approve of this map Clouds and down to 37/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Snow on my doorstep to the west. Lets see how long it takes to saturate the column. Cloudy 35/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, das said: The warm layer is oh-so-shallow. 2m temps are 42.1°F and the 10m temps are 36.1°F here in Clarksburg with a DP of 25°F. Literally a 6°F difference to the tops of the trees. Surface layer temps are not the issue here. Rates will make-or-break this storm. Too bad they have trended north in the last 24 hours. Euro looks pretty good for you. Kuchera map does a nice job accounting for the obvious problems. It's going to be more of a "visual" storm than a "measuring" storm. Watching snow fall is always my favorite part of the storm so this one should deliver ok in that dept. I'm hoping someone north or west of town measures a clean 4". That would be a win for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Clouds really thickening up out there. Temp actually made it to 41 with the last peeks of sun, but already coming down with temp at 40. Dew points in the mid 20's, so still looks good for Upper MoCo with wet bulb in the low 30's. Bring on the precip. Euro run was definitely solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: air temps before the storm are funny....i was 51 degrees a few hours before the blizzard of 93 started. It was the middle of March. And it rained for the first several hours, even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Precip is showing up well in the "cone shadow" to the SW on LWX radar. That's a good sign. Not going to be a whole lotta virga with this. Hours of virga sucks. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This is a very believable accum map. The good thing is it will look like a lot of snow falling even if ratios are well below 10:1. Good run man all things considered. That 9” total is basically right over my house...no complaints from me, ha. Flurries continuing. I’m keeping my eye on the mesoscale analysis map to see how the column responds to precip onset...should be a good indicator for you to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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