Cobalt Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 In these dark times, we can only hope the HREF is right Except it basically all goes on the hope that rates help everything. Ok, enough mesoscale stuff. Nowcasting time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I haven't followed your yard but in my region, it was forecast to be in the mid/upper 30s so nothing has surprised me today. I also expected onset to have no chance at sticking right away either. The first hour or so of precip will do nothing but cool things. My biggest worry is how long I can stay snow. You are in a better spot than that than I am. It's chips fall time now. Many of us are right on the edge as usual. Time to just let it play out and hope for a nice scene before it gets nuked shortly after sunrise tomorrow. Very true. Good luck to all. No matter what happens this evening, by this time tomorrow all of us will have bare ground anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 43 with a 28dp. Feeling like I'm from Missouri now - this one is going to have to "show me". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 It was like 44 degrees in Odenton at the start of St. Paddy's day. Snow wall to wall. Took about two hours to accumulate on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Very true. Good luck to all. No matter what happens this evening, by this time tomorrow all of us will have bare ground anyway. Yea, just enjoy whatever. We're stealing one here. The smallest of windows sandwiched between warmth but something is making a run at us. We'll all see some snow and even if surface never gets to 32, chances of stickage is still pretty high. I wrote off road accums 3 days ago. lol. At least in my hood. On a positive note...my yard just dropped a degree from 40 to 39 right as the clouds moved in. Victories come in all sizes. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 46/25.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 3k sounding for noon is spot on for my surface temp. Sub freezing isn't far off the deck. The warmth is very shallow. Temps will drop fast once precip fills in. Out of every reason to be worried right now...the surface is low on my list. Need the thump to preserve the mids or I'll be raining and or sleeting well before I want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, just enjoy whatever. We're stealing one here. The smallest of windows sandwiched between warmth but something is making a run at us. We'll all see some snow and even if surface never gets to 32, chances of stickage is still pretty high. I wrote off road accums 3 days ago. lol. At least in my hood. On a positive note...my yard just dropped a degree from 40 to 39 right as the clouds moved in. Victories come in all sizes. lol we're extremely capable of snow and upper 30s. it'll be a sloppy mess, but i'm in the mindset of i just want to see some snow for a couple hours. if it ends up being a bust, so be it. what can ya do. i'm just glad we're getting precip. it was needed and we're now officially out of any type of moderate or severe drought (good things). also, as someone who has family in the olney area, i can say with certainty that those areas can do significantly better than dc in these types of events. i've seen it firsthand. i think the northern tier is in good or better shape. i'm right on the 495/270 split, which is not as ideal. it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 It could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 44.3/28. I used SPF8 this morning and got a nice tan. Still sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Well, that was an exciting hour lol. Precip shield has went north and I am high and dry at the moment. It did help cool things down, 34.4/30.9 now. Snow/sleet just started to accumulate on elevated surfaces when it stopped. Looks like another nada for here. South towards Blacksburg/Roanoke they started as rain, least from cameras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 45.3/29. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 precip is definitely beelining for us: https://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php at the worst...it's at least an intriguing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just kidding! Bright, powerful sunshine is out now again in Hyattsville. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Full sun here in Bethesda MD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Hope LWX puts up an 18z sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 40/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 43/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Clouds lowering in Alexandria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Still filtered sun. Now sitting at the high of the day, 41F. Radar looks pretty juicy to the SW at least. Now, if it can make it here without splitting, or drying up..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lake Frederick Mike Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 35/27 overcast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 12:30pm update: bouncing around 42F with 25F dew point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Getting cloudy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Clouds closed in fast 41/25. Going to need 50% evap and fun to watch if we get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 32 and moderate snow that is so far just watering the ground (take that drought). Just starting to stick on elevated surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With a dry column and relatively cold mids, hitting 40 isn't as big of a deal as everyone is making it. It's very shallow warmth that can be overcome. This was never looking to be a subfreezing powder bomb. This I agree with. I was pleasantly surprised by the colder trend in the mids on 12z progs. My main concern now is the meso scale banding. Some places will win and lose based on where those set up. I'm less then thrilled that some stuff puts my area in subsidence between bands. But if that happens at least it probably means a win for populated areas south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This I agree with. I was pleasantly surprised by the colder trend in the mids on 12z progs. My main concern now is the meso scale banding. Some places will win and lose based on where those set up. I'm less then thrilled that some stuff puts my area in subsidence between bands. But if that happens at least it probably means a win for populated areas south of me. I hear a rant coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This I agree with. I was pleasantly surprised by the colder trend in the mids on 12z progs. My main concern now is the meso scale banding. Some places will win and lose based on where those set up. I'm less then thrilled that some stuff puts my area in subsidence between bands. But if that happens at least it probably means a win for populated areas south of me. Yea, we'll see how that goes. The northern edge of the southern band could be the surprise area...or it could be an unexpected quick flip to sleet and rain...lol. You never know. Marginal stuff that starts as snow "usually" performs as good or better than a blend of guidance but there are plenty of exceptions. Rain to snow almost always underperforms the blend of guidance. I'm just hoping to see some heavy rates for a time and white ground. I'm not nearly as optimistic about getting 2" as I was early yesterday. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 This I agree with. I was pleasantly surprised by the colder trend in the mids on 12z progs. My main concern now is the meso scale banding. Some places will win and lose based on where those set up. I'm less then thrilled that some stuff puts my area in subsidence between bands. But if that happens at least it probably means a win for populated areas south of me. You stay nervous, it usually bodes well for us in the end . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Flurries. 28/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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