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PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting


Bob Chill

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I haven't followed your yard but in my region, it was forecast to be in the mid/upper 30s so nothing has surprised me today. I also expected onset to have no chance at sticking right away either. The first hour or so of precip will do nothing but cool things. My biggest worry is how long I can stay snow. You are in a better spot than that than I am. It's chips fall time now. Many of us are right on the edge as usual. Time to just let it play out and hope for a nice scene before it gets nuked shortly after sunrise tomorrow. 

Very true.  Good luck to all.

No matter what happens this evening, by this time tomorrow all of us will have bare ground anyway.

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1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Very true.  Good luck to all.

No matter what happens this evening, by this time tomorrow all of us will have bare ground anyway.

Yea, just enjoy whatever. We're stealing one here. The smallest of windows sandwiched between warmth but something is making a run at us. We'll all see some snow and even if surface never gets to 32, chances of stickage is still pretty high. I wrote off road accums 3 days ago. lol. At least in my hood. 

On a positive note...my yard just dropped a degree from 40 to 39 right as the clouds moved in. Victories come in all sizes. lol

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3k sounding for noon is spot on for my surface temp. Sub freezing isn't far off the deck. The warmth is very shallow. Temps will drop fast once precip fills in. Out of every reason to be worried right now...the surface is low on my list. Need the thump to preserve the mids or I'll be raining and or sleeting well before I want.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, just enjoy whatever. We're stealing one here. The smallest of windows sandwiched between warmth but something is making a run at us. We'll all see some snow and even if surface never gets to 32, chances of stickage is still pretty high. I wrote off road accums 3 days ago. lol. At least in my hood. 

On a positive note...my yard just dropped a degree from 40 to 39 right as the clouds moved in. Victories come in all sizes. lol

we're extremely capable of snow and upper 30s.  it'll be a sloppy mess, but i'm in the mindset of i just want to see some snow for a couple hours.  if it ends up being a bust, so be it.  what can ya do.  i'm just glad we're getting precip.  it was needed and we're now officially out of any type of moderate or severe drought (good things).

also, as someone who has family in the olney area, i can say with certainty that those areas can do significantly better than dc in these types of events.  i've seen it firsthand.  i think the northern tier is in good or better shape.  i'm right on the 495/270 split, which is not as ideal.  it is what it is.

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Well, that was an exciting hour lol. Precip shield has went north and I am high and dry at the moment. It did help cool things down, 34.4/30.9 now. Snow/sleet just started to accumulate on elevated surfaces when it stopped. Looks like another nada for here. South towards Blacksburg/Roanoke they started as rain, least from cameras.

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58 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

With a dry column and relatively cold mids, hitting 40 isn't as big of a deal as everyone is making it. It's very shallow warmth that can be overcome. This was never looking to be a subfreezing powder bomb.

This I agree with. I was pleasantly surprised by the colder trend in the mids on 12z progs. My main concern now is the meso scale banding. Some places will win and lose based on where those set up. I'm less then thrilled that some stuff puts my area in subsidence between bands. But if that happens at least it probably means a win for populated areas south of me. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This I agree with. I was pleasantly surprised by the colder trend in the mids on 12z progs. My main concern now is the meso scale banding. Some places will win and lose based on where those set up. I'm less then thrilled that some stuff puts my area in subsidence between bands. But if that happens at least it probably means a win for populated areas south of me. 

I hear a rant coming. :D

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This I agree with. I was pleasantly surprised by the colder trend in the mids on 12z progs. My main concern now is the meso scale banding. Some places will win and lose based on where those set up. I'm less then thrilled that some stuff puts my area in subsidence between bands. But if that happens at least it probably means a win for populated areas south of me. 

Yea, we'll see how that goes. The northern edge of the southern band could be the surprise area...or it could be an unexpected quick flip to sleet and rain...lol. You never know. Marginal stuff that starts as snow "usually" performs as good or better than a blend of guidance but there are plenty of exceptions. Rain to snow almost always underperforms the blend of guidance. I'm just hoping to see some heavy rates for a time and white ground. I'm not nearly as optimistic about getting 2" as I was early yesterday. That's for sure. 

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This I agree with. I was pleasantly surprised by the colder trend in the mids on 12z progs. My main concern now is the meso scale banding. Some places will win and lose based on where those set up. I'm less then thrilled that some stuff puts my area in subsidence between bands. But if that happens at least it probably means a win for populated areas south of me. 


You stay nervous, it usually bodes well for us in the end ;)


.
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