Interstate Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 38/25 wind N/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: 39.3° here under filtered sunshine. Up 3.6° in the past hour. Yeah, if you are nearly 40F up there, then I know I'm toast. Not thinking I will see any accumulation at all down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just hit 39 here in Laytonsville. Radar looks solid to the SW. Still looks like it’ll be a bear to overcome the current temps. Wet bulb will take it to the low-mid 30’s for everyone, but those rates will be critical. Needs to come in strong. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yep, can always count on Stephens City being the warmest spot in the valley. https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KVASTEPH1 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: 39.3° here under filtered sunshine. Up 3.6° in the past hour. Wow Crazy micro climate in our area. 6 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: Snow and sleet lightly falling here in last 10 minutes, 36.8/30.3. Definitely NOT starting as a 'wall'. Hmmm. Interesting that the Weenie radar isnt very far off so far: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I've gone from rooting for the northern band to needing the southern band to make it up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I use PWS to check daytime temps since my thermometer sits in daytime sun. Now that it's cloudy, I just went out and checked it: 41F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Unfortunately these events that need furious rates often fail to deliver and we get hours of mixed spit. I see that with this one. Someone will get a burst and end up with 3-4 inches. Probably Sparky's deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 With a dry column and relatively cold mids, hitting 40 isn't as big of a deal as everyone is making it. It's very shallow warmth that can be overcome. This was never looking to be a subfreezing powder bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Wow Crazy micro climate in our area. Hmmm. Interesting that the Weenie radar isnt very far off so far: The radar looks stout. Its a shame the system wasn't 6 hours earlier. Let's hope we wet bulb down to the low 30's and let the chips fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I've gone from rooting for the northern band to needing the southern band to make it up here. being in Annapolis that blob of heavy snow has been persistent I hope the RGEM and NAM are correct that we have those crazy rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, WhiteoutMD said: being in Annapolis that blob of heavy snow has been persistent I hope the RGEM and NAM are correct that we have those crazy rates I'm more worried about ptype than rates. Lol. It's a fast mover but no doubt packing some juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With a dry column and relatively cold mids, hitting 40 isn't as big of a deal as everyone is making it. It's very shallow warmth that can be overcome. This was never looking to be a subfreezing powder bomb. The surface is a mess, Bob. It was 75F 36 hours ago, and now we've got 40F region-wide with several hours of sun blasting the surface, and temps in the low-to-mid 30s (at best) during the event. I can't see a system with top-end potential of .4 - .5" QPF delivering the rates necessary to overcome this.. You know a lot more about this than I do, but I only see failure in my area. I'm sure rates will be much greater to my NE (as they always are) and the usual northern MD crowd will get a decent event. And as I type this, the sun is back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: I'm more worried about ptype than rates. Lol. It's a fast mover but no doubt packing some juice. I really what this to just puke snow for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, WhiteoutMD said: I really what this to just puke snow for everyone Well, let's hope the 3k NAM is correct then. Pretty sure 1-2"/hr rates would overcome temp issues While the HRRR is dry as a bone Not sure which is right, but the 3k NAM is about as bullish as you can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 33 and dropping here under light virga. Dewpoint 26. Precipitation imminent edit: it is snowing with big flakes and smaller flakes mixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Well, let's hope the 3k NAM is correct then. Pretty sure 1-2"/hr rates would overcome temp issues While the HRRR is dry as a bone Not sure which is right, but the 3k NAM is about as bullish as you can get HRRR is an absolute disaster. And it fits pretty well with the predominant QPF distribution for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: The surface is a mess, Bob. It was 75F 36 hours ago, and now we've got 40F region-wide with several hours of sun blasting the surface, and temps in the low-to-mid 30s (at best) during the event. I can't see a system with top-end potential of .4 - .5" QPF delivering the rates necessary to overcome this.. You know a lot more about this than I do, but I only see failure in my area. I'm sure rates will be much greater to my NE (as they always are) and the usual northern MD crowd will get a decent event. And as I type this, the sun is back out. It is already snowing not very far away from you. Snowing n/w of Harrisonburg and just west of us. You will snow with this one. http://www.511virginia.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Can always hope for it to slow down a bit and dump a little longer. Stranger weather things have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: HRRR is an absolute disaster. And it fits pretty well with the predominant QPF distribution for this winter. And sadly, the HRRR has been basically spot on with temps so far this event. Warmest of all mesoscale models, and it's done pretty well. It could very well nail precip 43 degrees here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I had to use my sunglasses while driving and the UVs still blinded me. Not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: And sadly, the HRRR has been basically spot on with temps so far this event. Warmest of all mesoscale models, and it's done pretty well. 43 degrees here HRRR is busting badly with temps out here in Garrett. Earlier runs had me in the upper 30s while I’m currently at 29 under a thick cloud deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Interstate said: Just went outside. Definitely does not feel like a snowstorm coming. That’s because... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 40/23 in Hyattsville. Was sunny from 8AM - 11 or so, now starting to cloud over. You can see the high cloud cover moving in from the west on the last few frames of the GOES: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-northeast-02-48-0-100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, nj2va said: HRRR is busting badly with temps out here in Garrett. Earlier runs had me in the upper 30s while I’m currently at 29 under a heavy cloud deck. That's good news for sure. Like Bob said, it probably isn't a deal breaker. Temps were pretty warm on March 13/14, and temps got kicked down pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It is already snowing not very far away from you. Snowing n/w of Harrisonburg and just west of us. You will snow with this one. http://www.511virginia.org/ Yeah, but I'm more worried about the snow that sticks on the ground than what falls from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: 40/23 in Hyattsville. Was sunny from 8AM - 11 or so, now starting to cloud over. You can see the high cloud cover moving in from the west on the last few frames of the GOES: http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=regional-northeast-02-48-0-100 The last bit of clearing is right over D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 lol 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Been watching that blob on radar down around Charlottesville. None of it is reaching the ground. I wonder how much virga we are going to have to deal with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Yeah, but I'm more worried about the snow that sticks on the ground than what falls from the sky. I haven't followed your yard but in my region, it was forecast to be in the mid/upper 30s so nothing has surprised me today. I also expected onset to have no chance at sticking right away either. The first hour or so of precip will do nothing but cool things. My biggest worry is how long I can stay snow. You are in a better spot for that than I am. It's chips fall time now. Many of us are right on the edge as usual. Time to just let it play out and hope for a nice scene before it gets nuked shortly after sunrise tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The last bit of clearing is right over D.C. Not exactly. Filtered sun here and still sitting at 40F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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