MD Snow Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Bottomed out at 29 at 6:30 this morning. Seemed at the lower end of guidance for my area. Up 5 degrees to 34 in 2hrs though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 My forecast for this event: 90% chance that I’ll stay the hell out of this thread while the white rain and drizzle fall. Enjoy, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Clouds are coming guys, calm down. Forecast always had a sunny morning and skies clouding up as it went on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Sun is out. Warming quickly. Should be able to maximize instability and CAPE before the storm gets here. Oh, wait. Wrong season. 32.7/24.6 Any wind shear in the forecast for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I know it's the HRRR but it does show things staying frozen for more than half of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 "PD3.5 Lite" reads like the name of a new craft beer or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 35/25 sun. Toasty out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, H2O said: 35/25 sun. Toasty out SAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 34/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Up to 36 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 we should like the 12k NAm right? Keeps 850 at zero for entire event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 37 and climbing. The last ditch hail mary is heavy rates for dynamical cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 we should like the 12k NAm right? Keeps 850 at zero for entire event?What’s not to like? Looks better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we should like the 12k NAm right? Keeps 850 at zero for entire event? Zero 850's and heavy rates are the only hope at any accumulation at this point for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: we should like the 12k NAm right? Keeps 850 at zero for entire event? Yes, and you should love the 3k. They've trended colder, and the northern VA split from previous runs has shifted north. That said, the low totals on the NAM3 Ferrier maps tell me that it ain't pure snow in the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I keep posting in the other thread. But the NAM looks really good for the northern burbs this run. Very heavy thump according to it. 29/21 here now. Sunny but I can see clouds off to the SW. Hopefully they can race in here before I get above freezing. 3hr accum precip map. NICE thump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 44 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Clouds should push in in a couple hours . http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-24-1-100 Hit play Awesome. By then we should be sitting at 52F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Yikes, that warmup was fast here in Arlington - up to 40 already. I guess the one saving grace is that dewpoints have remained steady... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, high risk said: Yes, and you should love the 3k. They've trended colder, and the northern VA split from previous runs has shifted north. That said, the low totals on the NAM3 Ferrier maps tell me that it ain't pure snow in the model. i think the biggest problem now is the speed of the storm. Basically a 4 to 8pm event LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Ji said: we should like the 12k NAm right? Keeps 850 at zero for entire event? Yup. It lost that silly warm nose surge at 850 (actually more of a middle finger) that is was advertising previously. Maybe we trend back colder into this event. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i think the biggest problem now is the speed of the storm. Basically a 4 to 8pm event LOL It should probably read 4-8 minutes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Clouds racing in pretty fast on visible. Can see them peeking over the SW horizon here at New Windsor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 37/24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I keep posting in the other thread. But the NAM looks really good for the northern burbs this run. Very heavy thump according to it. 29/21 here now. Sunny but I can see clouds off to the SW. Hopefully they can race in here before I get above freezing. 3hr accum precip map. NICE thump! I like that bullseye on my backyard. Looks pretty heavy region wide to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The HHHR has improved as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ji said: i think the biggest problem now is the speed of the storm. Basically a 4 to 8pm event LOL We need that though. We need it to be heavy with the marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: We need that though. We need it to be heavy with the marginal temps. We need like .75 to 1.00 inch qpf in 6 hrs or less for this to work. Just from radar watching it doesn't seem impossible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 17 minutes ago, high risk said: Yes, and you should love the 3k. They've trended colder, and the northern VA split from previous runs has shifted north. That said, the low totals on the NAM3 Ferrier maps tell me that it ain't pure snow in the model. What's the difference between the Ferrier map and the normal 10:1 map? Why the huge disparity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The precip minima between the northern and southern bands is now over me on both NAMs. If that's right, temps become more critical. Just hit 32 with increasing clouds. Morning frost is mostly gone but the ground still feels crunchy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 33/16.5 Clouds in with only a few breaks now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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