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PD3.5 Lite Obs and Nowcasting


Bob Chill

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44 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Think we can will a band into Upper MoCo again? ;)  I like a general 1-3" for the county, but I can see 2-4" verifying for areas north and east of Germantown with a good band at some point. Clarksburg/Laytonsville/Olney/Damascus in the running. 

Agree.  It's all about the rates....

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

As @Bob Chill mentioned earlier, it's good to see such a shallow warm layer and that's being reflected with at lot places starting off right as snow.  Granted it's not going to accumulate for a bit, but it beats starting at light rain and wasting hours on end for things to cool off.

No doubt. The entire area is in the mid 30's to near 40 but everyone reported frozen precip at onset. That's a good sign. I'm sure mixing is in my future but man would I like to get a period of low vis and white asteroids. That's better than accums for me. 

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Nice mid-level lift getting underway. Still some substantial dry air to work though, which isn't a bad thing, since we're fighting p-types. Lack of decent sfc-850 winds means it'll be overwhelmed by the ridiculous advection in the 800-500 layer. I suspect with the warm nose initially high up in the column (around 700mb), we might see some sleet try and mix in on the southern end as that warm nose strengthens. 700mb winds are going to get up to around 80kt, which is pretty intense. We'll be lucky if there isn't a sleet zone.

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1 minute ago, cae said:

Finishing off the last of the model runs, the 12z Swiss model came in drier and warmer, significantly cut back snow depth.  RGEM ensemble went the other way, so you know which one I'm hugging.

Cloudy and 37 here after a high of 40.

Just based on the juice left to come through here. I think I am siding with the RGEM:

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