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30 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And as of now I'm going against most of the guidance.  There's still time for me to adjust my thoughts.  

I don't think (almost) anyone reaches warning criteria. I mean there could be isolated 6" amounts NW of the city and into central CT.

Agreed. 

 

But who knows, this was guaranteed to be an I-90 special. ;)

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27 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

The Euro is an area wide 3 to 6 for everyone from Monmouth County N / SW /  W and N/E

The issue is because Storm Vista maps and WxBell maps are very different.

Anyway, I've already laid out my forecast reasoning and I'm sticking to my guns.

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15 minutes ago, weatherlogix said:

I believe it was March 14-15 of 1999

 

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

March 99.  The NWS and models actually did a decent job forecasting that but they panicked when it was like 48/35 at 4pm and raining and pulled most of the headlines.  It was a much more dynamic setup than this but this setup has a better air mass in place for sure  

Right.That was the event that I was thinking of. It was such a wet and heavy snow that branches were snapping all over the place. One of the few memorable events for me in the series of dud winters from 96-97 to 99-00. Long Island did pretty well on that one. I actually enjoyed that storm better than the Jan 2000 dry slot snowfall shutoff special.

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

 

Right.That was the event that I was thinking of. It was such a wet and heavy snow that branches were snapping all over the place. One of the few memorable events for me in the series of dud winters from 96-97 to 99-00. Long Island did pretty well on that one. I actually enjoyed that storm better than the Jan 2000 dry slot snowfall shutoff special.

Very well.  11" jackpot up this way in march 99.

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2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Very well.  11" jackpot up this way in march 99.

The sycamores that were blighted in LB lost numerous large limbs from the weight of the heavy wet snow. The wind and saltwater damage from Sandy finished most of them off.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sycamores that were blighted in LB lost numerous large limbs from the weight of the heavy wet snow. The wind and saltwater damage from Sandy finished most of them off.

The biggest tree victims here from Sandy were spruce trees.  We lost hundreds just in the immediate vicinity.  Shallow rooted I guess.  Sycamores seemed to have fared ok here.

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4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

1996April10Snowstorm.gif

It makes sense that this type of scenario occurred in April where the snow relied on dynamic cooling to get the job done, raining under lighter rates. 

I disagree that this current storm is "Spring like". This is more the case of a SWFE where the mid level flow remains weak enough to keep most areas snow.

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It makes sense that this type of scenario occurred in April where the snow relied on dynamic cooling to get the job done, raining under lighter rates. 

It did and it didn't.  0.85" liquid at KNYC was not trivial.  That was more of a heat island thing.  To be sure, there were low ratios in the heavy snow areas.

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4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The biggest tree victims here from Sandy were spruce trees.  We lost hundreds just in the immediate vicinity.  Shallow rooted I guess.  Sycamores seemed to have fared ok here.

Sycamores were the most common larger trees in Long Beach before Sandy. They had been struggling for years with blight. It was mostly the saltwater damage to the root systems  that required the city to cut all the remaining ones down. Long Beach looks much different now with all the larger missing shade trees. It will take years for the newly planted trees to fill out the landscape again.

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31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

RGEM still looks warm for Long Island, but the rain/snow line is probably too far NW here.

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_33.png

I did not look but I was told the High RES RGEM looked to be more accurate on the R/S line.  I think in marginal situations like this the canadian sometimes views that area as ocean

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Not sure if this involves the missing Alaskan soundings, but the stronger Alaskan ridge may be making the difference with more southerly snow zone today. Looks like it's providing a little more SE press to the Hudson Bay vortex today.

Today

eps_z500a_noram_9.thumb.png.f23a0092e7e5987028c876484443eee1.png

 

Yesterday

eps_z500a_noram_13.thumb.png.2c37cb338eeb8d009ff68f69a1db6e51.png

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said:

This is a New York City special. I haven’t changed my accumulations based on anything I think nyc gets 5-8 inches. I’ve been saying this since Tuesday. Also next weekend looks interesting keep an eye especially north of the city. But this is nyc jackpot

So that means the city will rain. 

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2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

You can count the sycamores left here after Sandy on one hand just about. 

They are actually Lodon Plane trees. They look like Sycamores but are more stout and have knobby bark. Sycamores grow way too large for street trees.

Im not going to be confident in a forecast until I see the banding set up. Right now I like 1-8” for the city. It’s that dependent on getting into good rates 

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