BxEngine Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 30 minutes ago, Rjay said: And as of now I'm going against most of the guidance. There's still time for me to adjust my thoughts. I don't think (almost) anyone reaches warning criteria. I mean there could be isolated 6" amounts NW of the city and into central CT. Agreed. But who knows, this was guaranteed to be an I-90 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 27 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The Euro is an area wide 3 to 6 for everyone from Monmouth County N / SW / W and N/E The issue is because Storm Vista maps and WxBell maps are very different. Anyway, I've already laid out my forecast reasoning and I'm sticking to my guns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 15 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: I believe it was March 14-15 of 1999 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: March 99. The NWS and models actually did a decent job forecasting that but they panicked when it was like 48/35 at 4pm and raining and pulled most of the headlines. It was a much more dynamic setup than this but this setup has a better air mass in place for sure Right.That was the event that I was thinking of. It was such a wet and heavy snow that branches were snapping all over the place. One of the few memorable events for me in the series of dud winters from 96-97 to 99-00. Long Island did pretty well on that one. I actually enjoyed that storm better than the Jan 2000 dry slot snowfall shutoff special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Right.That was the event that I was thinking of. It was such a wet and heavy snow that branches were snapping all over the place. One of the few memorable events for me in the series of dud winters from 96-97 to 99-00. Long Island did pretty well on that one. I actually enjoyed that storm better than the Jan 2000 dry slot snowfall shutoff special. Very well. 11" jackpot up this way in march 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: There was that event in April 96 where the island got crushed and the city had little due to rain. Rare but possible. I don’t think that’s this event though. Where ever the heaviest banding sets up will win regardless of location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Very well. 11" jackpot up this way in march 99. The sycamores that were blighted in LB lost numerous large limbs from the weight of the heavy wet snow. The wind and saltwater damage from Sandy finished most of them off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The sycamores that were blighted in LB lost numerous large limbs from the weight of the heavy wet snow. The wind and saltwater damage from Sandy finished most of them off. You can count the sycamores left here after Sandy on one hand just about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The sycamores were always in bad shape their I remember from the 1960's they were having trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The sycamores that were blighted in LB lost numerous large limbs from the weight of the heavy wet snow. The wind and saltwater damage from Sandy finished most of them off. The biggest tree victims here from Sandy were spruce trees. We lost hundreds just in the immediate vicinity. Shallow rooted I guess. Sycamores seemed to have fared ok here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: It makes sense that this type of scenario occurred in April where the snow relied on dynamic cooling to get the job done, raining under lighter rates. I disagree that this current storm is "Spring like". This is more the case of a SWFE where the mid level flow remains weak enough to keep most areas snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It makes sense that this type of scenario occurred in April where the snow relied on dynamic cooling to get the job done, raining under lighter rates. It did and it didn't. 0.85" liquid at KNYC was not trivial. That was more of a heat island thing. To be sure, there were low ratios in the heavy snow areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: The biggest tree victims here from Sandy were spruce trees. We lost hundreds just in the immediate vicinity. Shallow rooted I guess. Sycamores seemed to have fared ok here. Sycamores were the most common larger trees in Long Beach before Sandy. They had been struggling for years with blight. It was mostly the saltwater damage to the root systems that required the city to cut all the remaining ones down. Long Beach looks much different now with all the larger missing shade trees. It will take years for the newly planted trees to fill out the landscape again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 New NAM is juiced and north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM looks quite nice, bumped the heavier totals north from last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3km juicy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 WSW now up for Orange and Putnam counties. Upton calling for a general of 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 49 minutes ago, weatherfreeeeak said: 3km juicy too 7 inches for the city This is looking more like a 2-5 inch snow fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Mt. Holly 4 p.m. Briefing : http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Soooo a 3 hour window where we need 2”/hour rates. Ugh. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 And the swing back to the North commences. This was predictable and why you don't make major changes to your forecast based on a few model swings. Classic windshield wiper effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 RGEM still looks warm for Long Island, but the rain/snow line is probably too far NW here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I would say that as long as you're North of the 850mb freezing line, you should be mostly snow. Can't see 925mb temps though so not 100% sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: RGEM still looks warm for Long Island, but the rain/snow line is probably too far NW here. I did not look but I was told the High RES RGEM looked to be more accurate on the R/S line. I think in marginal situations like this the canadian sometimes views that area as ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Not sure if this involves the missing Alaskan soundings, but the stronger Alaskan ridge may be making the difference with more southerly snow zone today. Looks like it's providing a little more SE press to the Hudson Bay vortex today. Today Yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 55 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 7 inches for the city This is looking more like a 2-5 inch snow fall. It does appear that it has to be taken seriously......what a wild ride of weather this week. And again next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 18z Gem Lam (Hi-res Rgem) shifts south. Bullseyes NYC metro and LI and cut back north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 16, 2018 Author Share Posted February 16, 2018 This is a New York City special. I haven’t changed my accumulations based on anything I think nyc gets 5-8 inches. I’ve been saying this since Tuesday. Also next weekend looks interesting keep an eye especially north of the city. But this is nyc jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: This is a New York City special. I haven’t changed my accumulations based on anything I think nyc gets 5-8 inches. I’ve been saying this since Tuesday. Also next weekend looks interesting keep an eye especially north of the city. But this is nyc jackpot So that means the city will rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 hours ago, jm1220 said: You can count the sycamores left here after Sandy on one hand just about. They are actually Lodon Plane trees. They look like Sycamores but are more stout and have knobby bark. Sycamores grow way too large for street trees. Im not going to be confident in a forecast until I see the banding set up. Right now I like 1-8” for the city. It’s that dependent on getting into good rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: You can count the sycamores left here after Sandy on one hand just about. When I come back into Long Beach now, sometimes I don't recognize what block it is due to the lack of trees. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2014/07/01/city-officials-say-mass-tree-removal-in-long-beach-is-a-public-safety-issue/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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