North and West Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: That pretty much agrees with my thinking. Just because the NWS issued a watch for 4-7" doesn't mean that's what's going to fall. That's why they issue watches and don't jump straight to warnings when possible. They are first and foremost tasked with protecting life; that's why there are often watches to advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s probably going to be an event where NYC gets 4-5 but 1/2 mile away it’s slush and LGA and JFK report 1 inch but someone in Flushing or Woodmere in their backyards get 5 I am in Woodmere (going on 15 yrs) and I can assure in these events where thermal profiles rule...we get nada. North Shore of Nassau Cty will be do much better than Woodmere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, North and West said: They are first and foremost tasked with protecting life; that's why there are often watches to advisories. Upton may also be nervous that the last decade we’ve had a tendency to see juicier storms and higher precipitation rates than anticipated more often than not. The end result has been many storms where forecasts bought into a boundary layer being too warm that busted. Both the early fall snow events in 11 and 12 saw this occur and a few others which I can’t even remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Not sure I buy the 6"+ over DC but I do like the totals for interior NJ and the LHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 UKMET looks less insane that it had but seems we are moving towards a consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I wouldn’t trust anything but hi-res models for this event. Globals look wayyy different than the mesos because they are having trouble with the boundary layer and dynamic cooling which is the whole driver of this event. Look how drastic the hi res NAMS and the HRDPS are with the rain snow line and rates. That should be a huge red flag. In the end the rates will win out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 37 minutes ago, North and West said: They are first and foremost tasked with protecting life; that's why there are often watches to advisories. More often I'm advisory to warning. In fact I haven't had a watch since last March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 47 minutes ago, weatherlogix said: I am in Woodmere (going on 15 yrs) and I can assure in these events where thermal profiles rule...we get nada. North Shore of Nassau Cty will be do much better than Woodmere Hard for me to think of a time where the city had very little because of temps and I had more. This time the bad thermals will be due to southerly winds, so for us I doubt there will be much unless the rates are good. Chances are I end up with an inch of slush on the grass and cars which will be gone a few hours later. Places like Huntington and Smithtown will almost certainly do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hard for me to think of a time where the city had very little because of temps and I had more. This time the bad thermals will be due to southerly winds, so for us I doubt there will be much unless the rates are good. Chances are I end up with an inch of slush on the grass and cars which will be gone a few hours later. Places like Huntington and Smithtown will almost certainly do better. I was speaking more for I-95 with my post. The immediate coast line will have major issues. Probably 1-3” of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 what looks to be approx start time with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 26 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Hard for me to think of a time where the city had very little because of temps and I had more. This time the bad thermals will be due to southerly winds, so for us I doubt there will be much unless the rates are good. Chances are I end up with an inch of slush on the grass and cars which will be gone a few hours later. Places like Huntington and Smithtown will almost certainly do better. There was that event in April 96 where the island got crushed and the city had little due to rain. Rare but possible. I don’t think that’s this event though. Where ever the heaviest banding sets up will win regardless of location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12Z UKIE. Thanks to New England subforum for posting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 12Z UKIE. Thanks to New England subforum for posting this. How are the thermals for I-95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro is colder with slightly more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The most superior model still has a paste job for 75% of this sub-forum. While the BL will be an issue, the rest of the column will be below freezing and you can still get snow in 34-35 degree weather if the rates are high enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Euro is colder with slightly more precip 2-4, 3-5" event just away from the coast. 1-3" for the immediate coast outside of Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 2-4, 3-5" event just away from the coast. 1-3" for the immediate coast outside of Suffolk. 12z Euro has 5 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: 12z Euro has 5 inches for NYC I can see 5" for mid-town, not all five boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 So we have the Euro joining the NAM with a southward shift in the heaviest snow today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: So we have the Euro joining the NAM with a southward shift in the heaviest snow today. Obviously it’s a good step in the right direction, but I’ll believe 5-6” of snow here with these prior conditions when I see it. We really need the heavy rates where we are. It’s good that it’s happening at night at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: So we have the Euro joining the NAM with a southward shift in the heaviest snow today. That’s why i’ve been harping on the hi-res solutions. It’s all about the rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 hours ago, snywx said: If I had to take a guess I would say 1-3" for the immediate coast. Areas just NW of the city like Bergen, Rockland, Westchester into CT look good with 3-5" amounts. I expect Upton to go with WWA for everyone. I like this call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: I like this call. only problem with that call is most of the 12Z guidance still supports the idea of 3 -6 across the entire area which indicates WSW stay in effect at least till tomorrow early AM then the decision to issue either WWA or WSW will be made Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: 2-4, 3-5" event just away from the coast. 1-3" for the immediate coast outside of Suffolk. The Euro is an area wide 3 to 6 for everyone from Monmouth County N / SW / W and N/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Here is your EURO R/S line . Follow the 925 line everyone below 0 will wet bulb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: only problem with that call is most of the 12Z guidance still supports the idea of 3 -6 across the entire area which indicates WSW stay in effect at least till tomorrow early AM then the decision to issue either WWA or WSW will be made And as of now I'm going against most of the guidance. There's still time for me to adjust my thoughts. I don't think (almost) anyone reaches warning criteria. I mean there could be isolated 6" amounts NW of the city and into central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Obviously it’s a good step in the right direction, but I’ll believe 5-6” of snow here with these prior conditions when I see it. We really need the heavy rates where we are. It’s good that it’s happening at night at least. We had a storm like the Euro is showing back in the 90's. While I can't remember the date, it was on a Sunday night. Temps bumped up to near 40 during the day and I believe the forecast was for rain. But evap cooling took over with heavy wet snow and we picked up a surprise 6"+ in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: We had a storm like the Euro is showing back in the 90's. While I can't remember the date, it was on a Sunday night. Temps bumped up to near 40 during the day and I believe the forecast was for rain. But evap cooling took over with heavy wet snow and we picked up a surprise 6"+ in Long Beach. I believe it was March 14-15 of 1999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 8 minutes ago, Rjay said: And as of now I'm going against most of the guidance. There's still time for me to adjust my thoughts. I don't think (almost) anyone reaches warning criteria. I mean there could be isolated 6" amounts NW of the city and into central CT. Too fast moving and a half inch or so liquid will probably do it so even at 10:1 5-6" looks like the ceiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: We had a storm like the Euro is showing back in the 90's. While I can't remember the date, it was on a Sunday night. Temps bumped up to near 40 during the day and I believe the forecast was for rain. But evap cooling took over with heavy wet snow and we picked up a surprise 6"+ in Long Beach. March 99. The NWS and models actually did a decent job forecasting that but they panicked when it was like 48/35 at 4pm and raining and pulled most of the headlines. It was a much more dynamic setup than this but this setup has a better air mass in place for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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