Animal Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: Yupp, and a lot of times the areas kissing the changeover line in these events jackpot. I’d garner I-95 from Philly to NYC will do quite well from this. 4-8” with no changeover is looking likely. Goofus is lost by discounting the cooling that will occur with these rates. Curious on how the NAM model has performed this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s exactly how you could get it done. And that’s why I caution anyone going with low totals for the coast. Hopefully that’s right and we see something like this. Always dangerous relying on dynamic cooling though. Hopefully the weaker models come around. And I’m still wary as always about the NAM being overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3k Nam is 6 inches for NYC and 7 for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Thump on the 3km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 RGEM looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 If the crappier outcome models like the GGEM and GFS come in better tonight, the NAM might be worth something. If they stay lousy, I’d lean still to the NAM being overdone. And there’s also the Euro, which was amped but overall too warm near the city for much IMO. Having the NAM be the one model with a real shot at a good event around the city isn’t the best hand to play. But it is plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 It's just nice to have something potentially wintry to track for this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Gfs still meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs still meh The lack of posts in the last 30-45 minutes already gave me that impression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: The lack of posts in the last 30-45 minutes already gave me that impression. Canadian also still in that camp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 The NAM could be overdoing things, its hard to say at this point. Hopefully we will have a better idea after the 12z runs tomorrow on how things will play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 WSW issued for area as of this am....Going with the Euro and nam for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Mt.Holly has issued a WSW here from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for 4-6" of snow expected here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Gfs still meh 6 gfs is meh too.. 6 z nam gives the middle finger anyone near/around I 84 this storm has high bust potential looks like 2-max 5 if u thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for the whole NYC area 4-7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Winter storm watch except orange & Putnam counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Upton expecting 6-8 inches for Central park northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 WSW for 4-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Euro, uk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Interesting call by Upton. Most models have lowered snowfall amounts every run for last 24 hours (I don't know about Euro or Ukie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: Interesting call by Upton. Most models have lowered snowfall amounts every run for last 24 hours (I don't know about Euro or Ukie). Yeah Mt Holly calling for 3-7 in my area. I really don't think so. 57 degree high today, and 45 on Sunday, and somehow on a south wind we are supposed to get 3-7 Sat night. I really doubt it. maybe 3 wet inches. It would have to be a heckuva storm to dump 7 overnight. That south wind forecast really bothers me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 I think the city will be lucky to see 2 inches of slush at best on paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Mt.Holly has issued a WSW here from Saturday evening through late Saturday night for 4-6" of snow expected here. Very bullish forecast given the model disagreement. We'd have to see some uptick in amounts today from models in order for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 16 minutes ago, weathermedic said: I think the city will be lucky to see 2 inches of slush at best on paved surfaces. Not if the Euro and Nam are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 mt holly's disco this morning is very well done Quote For Saturday and Sunday...The guidance continues to show a quick moving but potent system developing just off the Mid-Atlantic coast later Saturday then quickly tracking northeastward away from our area early Sunday. While the guidance is in good agreement that precipitation will occur, there continues to be more uncertainty with the precipitation amounts northwestward and also the precipitation type especially near and east of I-95. We start with clouds increasing during the day Saturday and if these thicken rather quickly, surface heating will be slowed. The airmass in place is forecast to be chilly but also rather dry in the lower levels especially. The guidance differs some with the large scale ascent to the northwest of the surface low. This will be key in determining not only the precipitation amounts but the rates. Some guidance suggest that a ribbon of enhanced lift occurs associated with a rapid increase in frontogenetic forcing between about 850 mb and 700 mb. This may become enhanced for a time Saturday night as our region is within the right entrance region of a potent 250 mb jet. This will be a quick hitting storm, however there is the potential for a swath of snowfall rates of near 1 inch per hour. As of now, we are thinking this is near and just north and west of I-95. However despite the surface high well east-northeast of our area, some hints of cold air damming lingering and this could be enhanced some due to wet bulbing effects. Therefore, a thumping of snow may very well occur for parts of our region namely near and west of I-95. Farther to the northwest across our area, there looks to be less QPF but snow to liquid ratios should be the highest in the vicinity of the Poconos. Farther south and east across Delmarva and central to especially southern New Jersey, enough warming should result in a zone of some mixing (mainly rain/snow but some sleet is possible briefly) with any snow going over to rain closer to the coast. In between these zones, a wetter snow if enough accumulates at a fast rate could result in some power outages. We continue to not include any ice amounts as freezing rain may be limited and this is much less certain given marginal surface temperatures where it could occur. Given the above, the quick hitting nature of this event and our latest forecast snow amounts, we opted to go with a Winter Storm Watch for Saturday night for all of eastern Pennsylvania (except Delaware and Philadelphia counties) and northern New Jersey. It is here where we have the highest snow amounts which could approach warning criteria for some areas but this is uncertain, as is the western fringe due to potentially less QPF. Since there is the potential for some higher totals and enhanced rates and to also help with our messaging efforts, we felt a watch was a good way to go at this point. To the east of the watch area, a tier of advisories will be possible. Our precipitation types were derived from a blend of several models with some adjustments then made. The system quickly moves away early Sunday and all the precipitation should be done by 5 AM. As the flow turns northwest and increases some with drier air arriving, clouds are expected to clear out for much of the area. The flow is progressive however and therefore Sunday afternoon will be on the milder side with plenty of snow melting occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Nam still favoring Philly and South Jersey. Advisory level for everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam still favoring Philly and South Jersey. Advisory level for everyone else this just supports the idea most of NYC metro will be mostly snow with no mix of rain or change to rain as some unnamed METS ( save that for the vendor thread ) are advertising this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 12z NAM came out much less amped up than recent runs. This would be a very rare snowy coup for southern sections during such a warm La Nina February if it verified. Looks much more like something that we see in an El Nino February. Go figure... Which is probably why it won’t happen LOL. Then again I said from the beginning this wasn’t coming north like many were thanking. As pointed out in the SNE forum a few minutes ago though, this may just be the standard meet in middle point and it starts coming slightly north again the final 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 ICON at 12Z looks improved from 6Z. About .4 of precip for NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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