mikem81 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS soundings also show that the layer from 700mb to the surface is above freezing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018021518&fh=48 The soundings show above freezing from about 950MB to surface. Not sure what you are looking out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Final call more than 48 hours out? The overall totals really haven’t changed much if you look at averages rather than run to run swings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 11 minutes ago, mikem81 said: I was looking specifically at 06z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The GFS soundings also show that the layer from 700mb to the surface is above freezing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018021518&fh=48 Methinks you clicked a spot about 150 miles over the ocean. Either that or you're completely disregarding the "Skewd" part of a sku-t/log p diagram skew t at that point in time near NYC had temps at around -6 to -8 at that time stamp you linked to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, weatherbear5 said: Methinks you clicked a spot about 150 miles over the ocean. Either that or you're completely disregarding the "Skewd" part of a sku-t/log p diagram skew t at that point in time near NYC had temps at around -6 to -8 at that time stamp you linked to I clicked right over NYC at 06z Sunday, but honestly whatever at this point. The BL is in the mid 30’s, and that’s in the city proper around 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I clicked right over NYC at 06z Sunday, but honestly whatever at this point. The BL is in the mid 30’s, and that’s in the city proper around 06z. Strange, the link from your post took me to 18z Sat. Regardless, here is the SKU-T link https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/sounding/?model=gfs&runtime=2018021518&fh=60&lat=40.71&lon=-73.81&stationID=&tc=&mode=regular temps go above freezing around 975mb. You are right about the BL though. This is one of those cases where the system needs to "create" its own cold air. It will have some low-DP air to work with initially, so we'll need it to thump to overcome the marginal airmass. if it's going to thump, we end up snowcovered, if it's light we end up wet (at least on the Island) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I clicked right over NYC at 06z Sunday, but honestly whatever at this point. The BL is in the mid 30’s, and that’s in the city proper around 06z. Assuming the GFS is wrong on how light the precip is the T/Td spread at the start of the event is enough that it should be 30-32 and snowing if we have even modest rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 30 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I was looking specifically at 06z Sunday. That is was the picture is from .....It is above freezing at 700MB around the NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 42 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The soundings show above freezing from about 950MB to surface. Not sure what you are looking out... I'm trying to give him the benefit of the doubt, but I couldn't find any above freezing above the BL either. I agree with you; the light precip on the GFS would be light rain or a mix on the coast with those surface temps, but if the wetter solutions verify it will be a paste bomb. Heavier precip with that sounding would be slam dunk for snow with cooling of the boundary to near or slightly below freezing as the snow falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NWS going 4-6 max swath NNJ through Hudson Valley into NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Anyone know what Big Blues (IBM) beta model is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 PB - CN: what say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Trajectory is more important than just wind direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 11 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Weak winds in mid Feb, not a big deal. He may be right with accumulations though given BL and or the GFS is right with QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Weak winds in mid Feb, not a big deal. He may be right with accumulations though given BL and or the GFS is right with QPF Not a typical mid Feb though; feels more like April! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 51 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: That guy doesn' have a clue what he's doing. No offense but he busts a lot and there isn't one model that shows that much What r u talking about? Not that much where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: What r u talking about? Not that much where? I think he means " that little "or "those amounts " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Use the vendor threads guys...these derailments are why its there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Weak winds in mid Feb, not a big deal. He may be right with accumulations though given BL and or the GFS is right with QPF The southerly flow out ahead of it is a real concern. It comes in for a whole day almost and while it’s not strong, it’ll be enough to make the airmass marginal at best on the coast. The ground is warm from the recent highs and will melt the snow from underneath. The coast will likely need heavy rates to overcome that and accumulate. Weak/sheared out like the GFS won’t be good enough. I’d expect maybe some slush at the end with something like that evolution in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4 hours ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Guys the GFS model is the worst model of all globals. The ukmet has a good amount of dynamic lift that would wetbulb anything into heavy snow just as depicted by icon and nam. Euro is usually good but does not do well with dynamically fast pattern systems. I think the globals are going to catch up the intensity of this system. You will get a heavy 6 hour window of 1-2 hour rates. I don’t think NYC mixes at all. I think Cape Cod and eastern fork may taint a bit but this will be so dynamic though very fast moving that you’ll get good snow ratios. 10:1-15:1. it is February so storms tend to have more dynamics in the upper atmospheres and this is why it does warm up a bit but it is the snowiest month for that reason. Think of the warmer seasons when we get 2 inch thunderstorms! I think the jackpot here is Central Park up to Mahopac and east towards New Haven, CT, Providence could pick up 8-10 also. I think Central Park gets 5-8 inches out of this. All the models will start picking up the more intense system as we get closer especially the short term models. What pisses me off is wrong information. And there’s a lot of misinformation on this thread. Euro is showing 3-5 for NYC, If you don’t know the basics of dynamically and evaporative cooling please read more and post less! Some of this is correct. Some is probably wishcasting. But the part that’s true is the dynamic cooling and wet bulbing under heavier rates. It will all depend on where the heavier banding sets up. Even the coast can see a decent thump if we get under good banding. That holds true for pretty much anywhere other then we’ll inland (75 plus miles) or the few areas above 1000’. Anyone claiming final calls at this lead time is kidding themselves. Banding setup is a now cast phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM is nice for coastal folk, BL still crap but at first glance p type is snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 95 special. Philly and Trenton crushed, NYC looks good for 6" per NAM (wpuld post images but I can't clear previous attachments on mobile and I don't have a computer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 NAM is a 6-10” crush job for I-95 with some great rates. Dynamic cooling really saves the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 4-7 inches areawide on the Nam Nice and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said: NAM is a 6-10” crush job for I-95 with some great rates. Dynamic cooling really saves the day. 0c line is down in south jersey Plenty of cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 12k Nam is 6 + for the whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: NAM is a 6-10” crush job for I-95 with some great rates. Dynamic cooling really saves the day. That’s exactly how you could get it done. And that’s why I caution anyone going with low totals for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 16, 2018 Share Posted February 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s exactly how you could get it done. And that’s why I caution anyone going with low totals for the coast. Yupp, and a lot of times the areas kissing the changeover line in these events jackpot. I’d garner I-95 from Philly to NYC will do quite well from this. 4-8” with no changeover is looking likely. Goofus is lost by discounting the cooling that will occur with these rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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