ILoveWinter Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, allgame830 said: It’s pretty clear at this point that the GFS is not going to join in.... Even on the day of? Pretty crazy to me. Either it scores an big coup or it is yet another confirmation of how god awful this model can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z RGEM Just never seen that type of gradient ever on this kind of track. If it happens it certainly will be a first without a mid level low center tracking overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Just never seen that type of gradient ever on this kind of track. If it happens it certainly will be a first without a mid level low center tracking overhead It looks like 925mb temps go above freezing for awhile over most of Long Island. That combined with a torched BL where the 40 degree isotherm is just offshore. Notice how the winds are Southeasterly too at the surface but more Northerly at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It looks like 925mb temps go above freezing for awhile over most of Long Island. That combined with a torched BL where the 40 degree isotherm is just offshore. Notice how the winds are Southeasterly too at the surface but more Northerly at 850mb The 12Km NAM which I’ve found has been good all winter seems to show the same gradient where LGA and NYC are almost all snow while FRG is virtually all rain. Even JFK looks to be mostly snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The 12Km NAM which I’ve found has been good all winter seems to show the same gradient where LGA and NYC are almost all snow while FRG is virtually all rain. Even JFK looks to be mostly snow The NAM has a stronger SLP so maybe dynamic cooling is taking place. I weighted the 12z RGEM heavily in my snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 We really need something like the NAM outcome down here, for heavy rates that cool the column down. There’s plenty of other solutions showing a warm layer coming in at 925 or light rates that won’t accumulate. Kinda surprised I’m still in a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 CMC got colder HRRR still jackpots the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The probability that a single model (GFS) is very wrong 6-9 hours before the onset of a storm is far higher than the probability that essentially every other model (GGEM, RGEM, NAM, ECMWF) are very wrong. I continue to believe that the GFS should be discounted. The higher resolution guidance should have a better handle on the soundings than the GFS. We will see soon enough.You mean disregard the model that is playing into its known bias' and is less useful for this type of event? *blink blink* but why? Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Even on the day of? Pretty crazy to me. Either it scores an big coup or it is yet another confirmation of how god awful this model can be.The issue here is that the higher resolution models are more useful for this particular set up. Likewise, it is normally understood that the GFS tends to have a warmer bias. In this situation, the higher resolution models are going to be able to see the Cold air 'better' than a global such as the GFS which has much lower resolution. Thus this is why, I believe, the Euro is also much colder, better resolution. For the record, the GFS has many times shown nothing but rain for an event when several inches of snow has already accumulated. This is why meteorology is about understanding the physics of the atmosphere. From here a meteorologist can pick and parse the reasoning of the various models, thus finding what they perceive to be the issues within each model output forecast. The GFS is not too shabby for some forecasts, this particular set up is jot one of them however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 23 minutes ago, Snow88 said: CMC got colder HRRR still jackpots the city It's so much colder at the surface than the rest of the guidance which is hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: The issue here is that the higher resolution models are more useful for this particular set up. Likewise, it is normally understood that the GFS tends to have a warmer bias. In this situation, the higher resolution models are going to be able to see the Cold air 'better' than a global such as the GFS which has much lower resolution. Thus this is why, I believe, the Euro is also much colder, better resolution. For the record, the GFS has many times shown nothing but rain for an event when several inches of snow has already accumulated. This is why meteorology is about understanding the physics of the atmosphere. From here a meteorologist can pick and parse the reasoning of the various models, thus finding what they perceive to be the issues within each model output forecast. The GFS is not too shabby for some forecasts, this particular set up is jot one of them however. Thanks for the answer. I do realize it’s resolution isn’t too high but really thought that it would start coming around - at least at less than 12 hours to game time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Looks like the 12z UKMET is above freezing at the surface, peaking around +3-4C around 00z tonight with a gradual cooling back down to about +2C by 12z Sunday. That would probably be mostly rain or a mix of rain and snow with surface temperatures in the upper 30's in New York City. Can't post the picture because it's showing the 2/16 12z run but the link is below. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/meteogram.php?lang=en&map=us&run=12&mod=ukmet&var=std Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like the 12z UKMET is above freezing at the surface, peaking around +3-4C around 00z tonight with a gradual cooling back down to about +2C by 12z Sunday. That would probably be mostly rain or a mix of rain and snow with surface temperatures in the upper 30's in New York City. Can't post the picture because it's showing the 2/16 12z run but the link is below. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/meteogram.php?lang=en&map=us&run=12&mod=ukmet&var=std Confusing as to why the NWS just extended the WSW at 1130 given the 12z guidance its out. Could it be that the heavy precip cools the surface or just the heavy rates? In 1995 we had a large snowstorm and in Norwalk CT we accumulated 12 inches with a temp of 35 degrees! Stuck to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Confusing as to why the NWS just extended the WSW at 1130 given the 12z guidance its out. Could it be that the heavy precip cools the surface or just the heavy rates? In 1995 we had a large snowstorm and in Norwalk CT we accumulated 12 inches with a temp of 35 degrees! Stuck to everything. Upton isn’t buying the warmer solutions away from the immediate coastline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Latest HRRR. Amazingly consistent so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 7 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Latest HRRR. Amazingly consistent so far today. It’s lowering the amounts down here gradually with the warm surface air it’s seeing. It’ll match other guidance in a few runs. I’m getting more and more pessimistic for coastal sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 That said, the GFS temps are garbage. It’s a bias we constantly see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 EURO just came in warmer. Changes to rain even away from Westchester and Fairfield County coasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, EastonSN+ said: EURO just came in warmer. Changes to rain even away from Westchester and Fairfield County coasts Uh Oh. Will we see the trend continue? We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO just came in warmer. Changes to rain even away from Westchester and Fairfield County coasts Go with the higher resolution short range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Go with the higher resolution short range models. The Euro is hi res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, Rjay said: The Euro is hi res I am aware of that, thank you. I said short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am aware of that, thank you. I said short range. The euro at 12 hrs is short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I am aware of that, thank you. I said short range. Wouldn't short range be best at this point? The storm is hours away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, BxEngine said: The euro at 12 hrs is short range. Ok then there are implications to the warmer depiction I would assume.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: The euro at 12 hrs is short range. Remember when the Euro was "low res" and nailed storms from 7 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Thread specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Most models show it changing over as the storm dies down, what’s important is what it shows during the height of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Most models show it changing over as the storm dies down, what’s important is what it shows during the height of it. Yeah euro snow amounts don't look much different from 0z around the city and NE nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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