doncat Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Latest Yeah has the heaviest band right thru the city and most of li. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You do realize the NAM is given little weight by the professional community? You do realize that's not true? For the winter storm for tonight, the CMC and ECMWF have trended wetter, towards the NAM and SREF. The GFS is a relatively drier outlier due to its more southern low track (due to well documented issues the GFS has in dealing with damming highs east of the Appalachians). AS a result have followed a NAM/ECMWF/CMC regional/SREF blend for the forecast for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: You do realize that's not true? For the winter storm for tonight, the CMC and ECMWF have trended wetter, towards the NAM and SREF. The GFS is a relatively drier outlier due to its more southern low track (due to well documented issues the GFS has in dealing with damming highs east of the Appalachians). AS a result have followed a NAM/ECMWF/CMC regional/SREF blend for the forecast for tonight. Mount Holly Given the extent of the dry air in place initially, wet bulbing should be a factor in allowing temperatures to drop a bit more. We therefore blended closer to the cooler guidance such as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: You do realize that's not true? For the winter storm for tonight, the CMC and ECMWF have trended wetter, towards the NAM and SREF. The GFS is a relatively drier outlier due to its more southern low track (due to well documented issues the GFS has in dealing with damming highs east of the Appalachians). AS a result have followed a NAM/ECMWF/CMC regional/SREF blend for the forecast for tonight. Generally speaking, it's discounted or weighted less because it overdoes QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, larrye said: Generally speaking, it's discounted or weighted less because it overdoes QPF. Agreed. Using a tool for what it’s good for is different than leaving it in your tool box untouched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 12z nam is is impressive with qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Nice NAM run for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 HRRR has been very consistent this morning. They just all gave up n went home lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Is there any calculation as to how much snow is needed in order to build a snowman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Hrrr has close to 6 inches for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 20 minutes ago, The Plowsman said: 1 hour ago, Metasequoia said: HRRR has been very consistent this morning. They just all gave up n went home lol We have all gotten accutomed to big snows, but this could be decent enough. Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, doncat said: Yeah has the heaviest band right thru the city and most of li. SI is part of the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hrrr has close to 6 inches for the area Would almost equal the "bomb cyclone ' for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, doncat said: Yeah has the heaviest band right thru the city and most of li. Well this is what I was waiting for and not in a “weenie” way. But to see where the best banding potential is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: You do realize that's not true? For the winter storm for tonight, the CMC and ECMWF have trended wetter, towards the NAM and SREF. The GFS is a relatively drier outlier due to its more southern low track (due to well documented issues the GFS has in dealing with damming highs east of the Appalachians). AS a result have followed a NAM/ECMWF/CMC regional/SREF blend for the forecast for tonight. I never said it wasn't considered at all, especially by the NWS. I was speaking more about private forecasters. I was more just saying that some here give the NAM way too much attention, and it's probably because everyone can easily access it and it runs four times a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 32 minutes ago, gravitylover said: You must have missed the memo, SI doesn't count anymore. The only places that matter are north Jersey and Brooklyn And LI. Not seeing the Monmouth Ocean crowd here today either....watch them jackpot against all odds again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, NJwx85 said: I never said it wasn't considered at all, especially by the NWS. I was speaking more about private forecasters. I was more just saying that some here give the NAM way too much attention, and it's probably because everyone can easily access it and it runs four times a day. People parse every word around here like it's a courtroom. It gets tedious. Nothing wrong with your info it has as much claim as anyone's here. I look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: People parse every word around here like it's a courtroom. It gets tedious. Nothing wrong with your info it has as much claim as anyone's here. I look forward to it. The bottom line is, it's okay to not agree with the modeling. That's happening a lot with this storm. You have one camp that believes the guidance is too warm at the surface and another that believes the precip max is too far North. That's why it's fun to make predictions and then see who ends up most correct. I personally find tracking/forecasting the storm to be better than the actual storm itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 12z German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 12z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Final Call Inside Pink Coating - 1" Linside Light Blue 1-3" Inside Dark Blue 2-4" Inside Green 4-6" Inside Red 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The 12z GFS is still weak, flat and warm. If that happens nobody outside of PA, Upstate NY or New England will see much snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I never said it wasn't considered at all, especially by the NWS. I was speaking more about private forecasters. I was more just saying that some here give the NAM way too much attention, and it's probably because everyone can easily access it and it runs four times a day. K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 3k NAM I've always used the rule with the NAM to cut the amounts in half. So I will take 2-4 and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 22 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: And LI. Not seeing the Monmouth Ocean crowd here today either....watch them jackpot against all odds again.... Wouldn't shock me for them and LI to jackpot as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z GFS is still weak, flat and warm. If that happens nobody outside of PA, Upstate NY or New England will see much snow out of this. It’s pretty clear at this point that the GFS is not going to join in.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Models seem to be in pretty good agreement regarding QPF (Excepting GFS of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: I've always used the rule with the NAM to cut the amounts in half. So I will take 2-4 and run with it. The NAM isn't much wetter than the 00z Euro. That rule usually applies when systems have a deep tropical connection which this does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The probability that a single model (GFS) is very wrong 6-9 hours before the onset of a storm is far higher than the probability that essentially every other model (GGEM, RGEM, NAM, ECMWF) are very wrong. I continue to believe that the GFS should be discounted. The higher resolution guidance should have a better handle on the soundings than the GFS. We will see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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