donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 With such a big difference between the 0z GFS and the 0z NAM, 0z RGEM, and 12z ECMWF, I suspect that the higher-resolution models may have a better handle on the thermal profile of the atmosphere. In theory, such models should have a better handle on the small details that could make a difference in what is a marginal situation. It's probably not a coincidence that the NAM (both 3 km and 12 km) and RGEM (including the higher-resolution version) and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement. It will be interesting to see if the 0z ECMWF remains reasonably consistent with its prior run. All said, my thinking remains little changed from this morning: Morristown, Newark, and NYC eastward to Islip: 2"-4" New Brunswick and Belmar: 1"-3" Northwestern NJ across central Westchester and central Fairfield Counties northward: 3"-6" There remains modest upward potential for Newark, NYC, and northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: So the gfs will either score a coup or is completely out to lunch It’s super warm, freezing line is way upstate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The GFS is so lost here its not even funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It’s super warm, freezing line is way upstate. So do you think it is onto something or out to lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: So do you think it is onto something or out to lunch? Since its all alone it's probably out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I’m not buying the GFS thermal profiles however it’s hard to completely discard it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I don’t buy the GFS thermals at all. It’s just about always too warm on these and the precip seems too light compared to the consensus. If it comes down mod to heavy, temps shouldn’t have a problem dropping to 32-33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Are we making a separate obs thread for this event or keeping it in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The closest event to this I can find is a more organized version of 1/20/02. That event the surface low formed a bit too late it what was probably even more progressive flow than this is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Post obs in thread I just created. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Anyone have access to the UK snowfall maps? Can see precip (0.6-0.8" for most of the Philly-NYC corridor), but not snow and the surface temp maps are too far apart to be helpful (every 12 hours). Thanks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: With such a big difference between the 0z GFS and the 0z NAM, 0z RGEM, and 12z ECMWF, I suspect that the higher-resolution models may have a better handle on the thermal profile of the atmosphere. In theory, such models should have a better handle on the small details that could make a difference in what is a marginal situation. It's probably not a coincidence that the NAM (both 3 km and 12 km) and RGEM (including the higher-resolution version) and ECMWF are in reasonably good agreement. It will be interesting to see if the 0z ECMWF remains reasonably consistent with its prior run. All said, my thinking remains little changed from this morning: Morristown, Newark, and NYC eastward to Islip: 2"-4" New Brunswick and Belmar: 1"-3" Northwestern NJ across central Westchester and central Fairfield Counties northward: 3"-6" There remains modest upward potential for Newark, NYC, and northward. Well put, 100% agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Euro is still good for most but it's showing the more typical north shore highest totals and cutback where I am. North shore has a max of 0.6" or more liquid as snow, and down here it's about 0.4" and a drop off out towards the East End. Definitely warmed up a little where I am-to be expected. 925 temps get a little above zero for a time south of the Southern State. 0.4" liquid or more as snow goes to about the Tappan Zee bridge and hugs I-80 west in NJ, so for most north/west it shows 2-4". The best area overall this run is the north shore of Nassau and Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Final call for me (and any south shore locations): 2". Could be 1" or less if rates disappoint and 3-5" if it's like the NAM. I can see how this is a nice outcome near the coast but more likely a lot of it's white rain or slop that only sticks on grass and cars. Could also have plain rain with lousy rates. Central Park: 3.5" Islip: 4.5" Huntington: 6" JFK: 2" Hamptons/Montauk: 1" Morristown: 5" White Plains: 5" Newburgh: 3" Port Jervis: 3" Bridgeport: 5.5" Belmar: Less than 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Looks like a solid 3-6 inch event for the metro, a little less NW, based on literally every model minus the GFS. Classic paste job too, sad it won’t last long but it could make for some really nice pics at sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Winter Storm Warnings posted for norther half of New York City Metro / north shore of Long Island and north. I've ever seen this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 HRRR has snow for metro. Map shows 3 or so inches. Moderate snow still falling for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Upton latest snow map has 6 inches for Manhattan and 5 inches for the south shore of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Sitting at 24/15 currently. Cold air has definetly rushed in behind yesterday's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Upton latest snow map has 6 inches for Manhattan and 5 inches for the south shore of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2-5 inches is a good call for the nyc area with slightly more just nort and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 2-5 inches is a good call for the nyc area with slightly more just nort and west. thanks upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Save this for posterity. I'm posting both NAM snow maps. Lines up nice with my thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Downgraded to a WWA here for 3-5" of snow expected. Now watch us hit warning criteria lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 ..i'm not expecting much out here..all of the "future casts" show ALL rain for the south shore/east end..we'll see but looks like a rain event for us east enders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Downgraded to a WWA here for 3-5" of snow expected. Now watch us hit warning criteria lol. We are really close ( as usual ) on the NAM maps above. However, I personally always stick with the lower number. Storm is short and will start as rain. How fast the changeover happens will be key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: Downgraded to a WWA here for 3-5" of snow expected. Now watch us hit warning criteria lol. The nam keeps shifting north with each run. Upton still seems too bullish to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The nam keeps shifting north with each run. Upton still seems too bullish to me You do realize the NAM is given little weight by the professional community? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 HRRR has been very consistent this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Metasequoia said: HRRR has been very consistent this morning. Latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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