weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:47 AM, Snow88 said: SREF is 3-6 for the NYC area. Expand So whaddaya think? Closer to 3 or 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:46 AM, weatherpruf said: Even on a Sunday? Lots of people off Mon and the snow will be gone by Tues...I guess a contract's a contract, but I don't intend to bother with clean up at home unless we top 5 inches. Won't need to. Expand When your in the biz you do it even if it’s christmas morning. I’ll do a first call for you. CPK 4” JFK 3”. EWR 4”. ISP 4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I think the city gets 2-4”. I see a place like Peekskill getting 6” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:50 AM, weatherpruf said: So whaddaya think? Closer to 3 or 6? Expand 2-4 is still my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 4-7 inches on the Nam for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 NAM increased amounts in the immediate metro area and NW, decreased amounts over eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:40 AM, weatherpruf said: How far NW? Expand These bumps NW are to be expected close in to the event, it’s almost like clockwork. Seeing the New England forum happy probably isn’t good for us down here around NYC. The RPM is sucky in general but it’s been favoring SNE for a while. Won’t take much more of a bump for mid level warmth to be a problem and for it to become an inland centered storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:17 AM, jm1220 said: These bumps NW are to be expected close in to the event, it’s almost like clockwork. Seeing the New England forum happy probably isn’t good for us down here around NYC. The RPM is sucky in general but it’s been favoring SNE for a while. Won’t take much more of a bump for mid level warmth to be a problem and for it to become an inland centered storm. Expand Who cares what they think. Upton is looking good now since the models are now showing what they are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:17 AM, jm1220 said: These bumps NW are to be expected close in to the event, it’s almost like clockwork. Seeing the New England forum happy probably isn’t good for us down here around NYC. The RPM is sucky in general but it’s been favoring SNE for a while. Won’t take much more of a bump for mid level warmth to be a problem and for it to become an inland centered storm. Expand What bothers me is that SE wind. We're being told it will be too calm to matter. If its that calm it isn't a wind at all. Been in SE winds enough at sea to know that even a light one sucks, and its usually stronger than forecast, as in hey we are getting our butts kicked at the Mud Buoy in this "light" SE wind..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:20 AM, Snow88 said: Who cares what they think. Upton is looking good now since the models are now showing what they are showing. Expand All those PhDs have to be right some times. The last time I saw them get really burned was feb 08 with the heavy snow warning for the coast. I stayed up all night watching the rain fall hoping the change was coming and it never did. Zero, not one flake so that beats even Jan 15 for us. That’s still a distinct possibility, though I would say around 10% or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:17 AM, jm1220 said: These bumps NW are to be expected close in to the event, it’s almost like clockwork. Seeing the New England forum happy probably isn’t good for us down here around NYC. The RPM is sucky in general but it’s been favoring SNE for a while. Won’t take much more of a bump for mid level warmth to be a problem and for it to become an inland centered storm. Expand Not really worried about mid-level temps TBH. only question is BL, how much warm air works in from the water before winds shift and how much that is offset by evaporational cooling. For Eastern LI and south shore things will likely be close. Outside of that, though, I'm fairly confident in a plowable on at least part of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:25 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The coast isn’t jackpoting? Haven’t you learned? Making definitive statements A. B there’s a pretty good chance the north shore hills on the island could and will be the jackpot. C this setup is all about heavy banding which could setup anywhere Expand Have I learned? LOL Most of Long Island will be lucky to see more than an inch or two of snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:25 AM, NJwx85 said: Have I learned? LOL Most of Long Island will be lucky to see more than an inch or two of snow out of this. Expand Ok I’ll take that to the bank then when somewhere at 250’ on the north shore jackpots for the whole area. It has happened over and over and over agin the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Some of the high res models seem to be picking up on the heaviest totals just north of the R/S line which we so frequently see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I think 3-6 is a good call for NYC with the nam and euro agreeing and also the SREF. I said 2-4 before but now I'm revising it to 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 When would the start times be from west to east ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:20 AM, Snow88 said: Who cares what they think. Upton is looking good now since the models are now showing what they are showing. Expand Who cares? You post there more than anyone else in this sub-forum. And anyone who wants to actually learn about this hobby cares what that forum has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:27 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Some of the high res models seem to be picking up on the heaviest totals just north of the R/S line which we so frequently see Expand Fits in well with my north shore LI jackpot idea. Could be dumping snow north of the LIE and raining south of the Southern State. I still think the south shore sees snow but it will be so so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 11:06 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: They are actually Lodon Plane trees. They look like Sycamores but are more stout and have knobby bark. Sycamores grow way too large for street trees. Im not going to be confident in a forecast until I see the banding set up. Right now I like 1-8” for the city. It’s that dependent on getting into good rates Expand We have a few native sycamores near the river here. Impressive trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:37 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Fits in well with my north shore LI jackpot idea. Could be dumping snow north of the LIE and raining south of the Southern State. I still think the south shore sees snow but it will be so so close Expand There’s a way we can do well down here but it’ll be a really narrow window if we can keep the mid levels cold enough and banding can cool the boundary layer. The north bumps make me concerned the warm mid level air makes it here and we rain or get dry slotted. But I agree, I wouldn’t call for more than a couple of inches in our backyard. I’d say we have equal odds at a little slush and a few inches or more. NorthShoreWx might easily get double where he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:45 AM, NorthShoreWx said: We have a few native sycamores near the river here. Impressive trees. Expand That’s really cool!! I didn’t realize there where any natives on the island. Where are they? There’s a great on the corner of 25a and 106 In oyster bay. oh and have fun with your jackpot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:25 AM, NJwx85 said: Have I learned? LOL Most of Long Island will be lucky to see more than an inch or two of snow out of this. Expand there it is, now i know im gonna see at least 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:46 AM, weatherpruf said: Even on a Sunday? Lots of people off Mon and the snow will be gone by Tues...I guess a contract's a contract, but I don't intend to bother with clean up at home unless we top 5 inches. Won't need to.2"+ contractually is mookoo $$ is my pocket! Who cares if it's gone in a few hrs! I've pushed down rite slush to rain for.....hours! Capitalism, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:07 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: When your in the biz you do it even if it’s christmas morning. I’ll do a first call for you. CPK 4” JFK 3”. EWR 4”. ISP 4”A bout rite, tho down here in CNJ...snow hole for yrs now in tri-state... think 6 to 8 lollis! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:27 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Some of the high res models seem to be picking up on the heaviest totals just north of the R/S line which we so frequently seeAgain, there you go! CNJ..the tristate snow hole lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:48 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s really cool!! I didn’t realize there where any natives on the island. Where are they? There’s a great on the corner of 25a and 106 In oyster bay. oh and have fun with your jackpot!! Expand There's a few near the Nissequogue on either side of Rt 25. South side of 25 is mostly fresh water, north is brackish/tidal. There's others around. i haven't really cataloged them but they aren't especially numerous. A few might be planted, but I am pretty confident some are native. It's quite difficult to tell a native from a LPT, especially since LPT is a hybrid with American Sycamore, but they seem different...often white more vivid bark under the scales on the native trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 2:58 AM, The Plowsman said: On 2/17/2018 at 1:46 AM, weatherpruf said: Even on a Sunday? Lots of people off Mon and the snow will be gone by Tues...I guess a contract's a contract, but I don't intend to bother with clean up at home unless we top 5 inches. Won't need to. Expand 2"+ contractually is mookoo $$ is my pocket! Who cares if it's gone in a few hrs! I've push down rite slush to rain for.....hours! Capitalism, dude. Expand Well it has been a lean winter in our parts as you've mentioned, so I hope you make some dough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 3:05 AM, The Plowsman said: On 2/17/2018 at 2:27 AM, SnowGoose69 said: Some of the high res models seem to be picking up on the heaviest totals just north of the R/S line which we so frequently see Expand Again, there you go! CNJ..the tristate snow hole lol Expand Hmmm....thought snow hole meant we get less...am I misinformed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Why are we all arguing about who has the biggest snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 So the gfs will either score a coup or is completely out to lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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