EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 How much on coastal ct on EURO snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 It's slightly warmer than last run. (Reminder to some: the precip falls before the time stamp. The temps are the actual temps at the hour of the timestamp) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Typically those change overs back to rain never verify unless it’s just a piss poor boundary layer setup which this is not. It’s not great but it’s not anywhere close to the worst I ever saw. If this gets killed it’ll be because of those 925 temps verifying IMO. Only exception may be eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 6:38 PM, Rjay said: It's slightly warmer than last run. (Reminder to some: the precip falls before the time stamp. The temps are the actual temps at the hour of the timestamp) Expand Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 With those 925 temps, that would be mostly rain for the city and coast. Hopefully for our sake that’s wrong, but it also warmed up 925 at 0z from 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 6:57 PM, jm1220 said: With those 925 temps, that would be mostly rain for the city and coast. Hopefully for our sake that’s wrong, but it also warmed up 925 at 0z from 12z yesterday. Expand By hr 18 the heavy precip is moving out. Drizzle at hr 24. I wish I could see hr 15. It's likely changing to rain for our area (JM and I ) around hr 16. Here's hr 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 6:38 PM, Rjay said: It's slightly warmer than last run. (Reminder to some: the precip falls before the time stamp. The temps are the actual temps at the hour of the timestamp) Expand Would like to see a skew T, but just looking at 925 looks like a wet snow dump on the north shore. Without seeing the column in more detail could be isothermal from there down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 7:03 PM, NorthShoreWx said: Would like to see a skew T, but just looking at 925 looks like a wet snow dump on the north shore. Without seeing the column in more detail could be isothermal from there down. Expand Maybe bluewave, don, forky or someone else has one to post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Dewpoints are low. That has to factor in as well. I could see 1 at JFK and 6 in the Bronx. 4 at LGA and central park. 2 in Staten Island. Snow map for EURO was posted in NE thread. Looks like 4 to 6 north shore and approx. 6 coastal CT and Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 3:23 PM, weatherpruf said: And LI. Not seeing the Monmouth Ocean crowd here today either....watch them jackpot against all odds again....Why of course! We were all napping getting ready here in central Monmouth for the usual localized snowbomb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Nam is slightly cooler for NYC but mostly rain for NJ and LI NYC changes to rain at the end 2-4 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 7:02 PM, Rjay said: By hr 18 the heavy precip is moving out. Drizzle at hr 24. I wish I could see hr 15. It's likely changing to rain for our area (JM and I ) around hr 16. Here's hr 12 Expand I'm using the weather.us site and clicking on the Euro output: By hr 15, the 0c line at 850 is just SW of Rockaway, and goes just north of Trenton and the northern edge of Monmouth. The 925 0c line is about the same as 850. I'd think around then is when it starts raining on the south shore. The 925 0c line continues north to encompass all of NYC/Long Island by hr 18, but 850 is slightly cooler, and that 0c line is just off the south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 7:58 PM, Snow88 said: Nam is slightly cooler for NYC but mostly rain for NJ and LI NYC changes to rain at the end 2-4 inches for NYC Expand Sounds about right. Although including Rockaway and SI, 1-4 might be a better range. There'll likely be a big difference between Bronx and southern Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 8:04 PM, jm1220 said: Sounds about right. Although including Rockaway and SI, 1-4 might be a better range. There'll likely be a big difference between Bronx and southern Queens. Expand Except the fact it's not raining in High Point while snowing in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Cut back for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 8:07 PM, Stormlover74 said: Cut back for sure Expand Something seems off with that. The radar is absolutely explosive in the Ohio valley. I wouldn’t put much stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I agree, it’s really down to nowcasting. I wouldn’t put too much stock in the NAM anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Upton goes with a WWA finally for the SS. 3-6” seems like a reasonable range based on the high resolution HREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 For NYC, I have not understood what the excitement was about. 1. Warm Boundary Layer 2. Warm Ground 3. No Pre-Existing Snow Cover 4. 850m T that rises from minimal to too warm in the 9 hours of the precipitation 5. Easterly Wind 6. 2M that reaches 32 at end of storm in NYC, but never goes below 36 elsewhere at LGA, JFK 7. Rapid Warm-Up starts quickly after storm 8. besides, JB says we will see better in March UH OOH.....better stay up late to enjoy it, while we have it. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 9:03 PM, CIK62 said: For NYC, I have not understood what the excitement was about. 1. Warm Boundary Layer 2. Warm Ground 3. No Pre-Existing Snow Cover 4. 850m T that rises from minimal to too warm in the 9 hours of the precipitation 5. Easterly Wind 6. 2M that reaches 32 at end of storm in NYC, but never goes below 36 elsewhere at LGA, JFK 7. Rapid Warm-Up starts quickly after storm 8. besides, JB says we will see better in March UH OOH.....better stay up late to enjoy it, while we have it. lol. Expand I hear ya, but NWS seems convinced we will see 4-7 in a wide area, and while they are wrong at times, you have to think they know what they are doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 8:54 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Upton goes with a WWA finally for the SS. 3-6” seems like a reasonable range based on the high resolution HREF Expand I still like 1-3" for us. 2-5" NYC. 4-6" just nw of there until i-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 NYC upgraded to 6-8 inches per Upton snowmap Rgem looks better. Keeps NYC mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 9:13 PM, Rjay said: I still like 1-3" for us. 2-5" NYC. 4-6" just nw of there until i-84. Expand Yeah but the warm ground and the 45 degree monday temps will limit the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 9:14 PM, BxEngine said: Yeah but the warm ground and the 45 degree monday temps will limit the snow. Expand It doesn't smell like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Lynbrook LI (western Nass Cnty) Humidity and DP low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I am liking 5" as a target number for my area, anything additional will be a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 9:14 PM, Rjay said: It doesn't smell like snow Expand Sniff this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I feel and am comfortable with 3 to 5 for Lynbrook, anything additional will be nice but 3-5 is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I like anything from a flake to a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I’m actually down in midtown and I have to say it’s awfully chilly. Earlier under full sunshine at home it was in the lower 40’s, right now it’s 36 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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