jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 11:06 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: They are actually Lodon Plane trees. They look like Sycamores but are more stout and have knobby bark. Sycamores grow way too large for street trees. Im not going to be confident in a forecast until I see the banding set up. Right now I like 1-8” for the city. It’s that dependent on getting into good rates Expand Really tough one. I'm still going conservative because of the marginal setup, but I can also see it busting high if banding does set up overhead and it pounds for a few hours. A few inches is still the most likely outcome IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 My instagram Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 12:06 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said: My instagraminstagram Expand Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 12:06 AM, WeatherFeen2000 said: My instagram Expand Better be up early. It won't look like that by 10 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 12:23 AM, Stormlover74 said: Better be up early. It won't look like that by 10 a.m. Expand Is it me or am I just not seeing a whole lot of enthusiasm for this storm? Is it because it's going to torch right after? I mean, I'm frankly hoping it produces a decent 4-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 12:50 AM, weatherpruf said: Is it me or am I just not seeing a whole lot of enthusiasm for this storm? Is it because it's going to torch right after? I mean, I'm frankly hoping it produces a decent 4-6. Expand I think us winter lovers are kinda beaten down by the weather lately and following our potential snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 12:50 AM, weatherpruf said: Is it me or am I just not seeing a whole lot of enthusiasm for this storm? Is it because it's going to torch right after? I mean, I'm frankly hoping it produces a decent 4-6. Expand That and the fact that the coast isn’t expected to see the most snow. If the JP was over Long Island this place would be rocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 12:57 AM, doncat said: I think us winter lovers are kinda beaten down by the weather lately and following our potential snow. Expand Much more likely that the people who declared winter over convinced everyone else to stop looking for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Even though it torches soon after tomorrow night's event it's still nice to have a several inch snow event. It's a weekend too, we are home to enjoy it. As has been the case too, the jackpot can be 50 miles off if any direction as recent storms have shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 12:57 AM, NJwx85 said: That and the fact that the coast isn’t expected to see the most snow. If the JP was over Long Island this place would be rocking. Expand Disagree. It’s been warm and rainy and a shot of snow overnight isn’t changing the pattern, so there’s less enthusiasm than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I’m still somewhat wary of the last second bump north that seems to be a feature of most storms now. The trends today were good for the NYC area for sure, but there’s still time for the low to bump further north and put the mid level warmth in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:06 AM, jm1220 said: I’m still somewhat wary of the last second bump north that seems to be a feature of most storms now. The trends today were good for the NYC area for sure, but there’s still time for the low to bump further north and put the mid level warmth in play. Expand The last minute bump North shouldn’t be a surprise like you said, this is a classic back and forth the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:06 AM, jm1220 said: I’m still somewhat wary of the last second bump north that seems to be a feature of most storms now. The trends today were good for the NYC area for sure, but there’s still time for the low to bump further north and put the mid level warmth in play. Expand We've also seen a lot of busts over the last few years. And the setup doesn't look like a slam dunk, from what I am reading here. I have seen storms canceled often enough to know better. I remember a few where we never saw a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:00 AM, Snowshack said: Disagree. It’s been warm and rainy and a shot of snow overnight isn’t changing the pattern, so there’s less enthusiasm than normal. Expand Yes but we have Weather 88 who with a charming sincerity, born of innocence, will always lift our spirits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 that plus people have been spoiled over the years of big storms. alot of people snooze over a 1-3/2-4/3-5 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:09 AM, NJwx85 said: The last minute bump North shouldn’t be a surprise like you said, this is a classic back and forth the last two days. Expand it would not surprise me at all. It just hasn't been our year here. I can see waking up tomorrow to read in here that the whole thing shifted north and will draw in rain, giving us the usual 1-2 inch slop over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:14 AM, Snowlover11 said: that plus people have been spoiled over the years of big storms. alot of people snooze over a 1-3/2-4/3-5 inch storm. Expand My wife likes them better. Who wants to clean 12 plus inches of snow? 3-6 inches is nice. Careful of the wet snow though, it's hard on the back and heart. 3-6 in this pattern really doesn't even need to be cleaned. It will melt fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 12:57 AM, NJwx85 said: That and the fact that the coast isn’t expected to see the most snow. If the JP was over Long Island this place would be rocking. Expand The coast isn’t jackpoting? Haven’t you learned? Making definitive statements A. B there’s a pretty good chance the north shore hills on the island could and will be the jackpot. C this setup is all about heavy banding which could setup anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:14 AM, weatherpruf said: it would not surprise me at all. It just hasn't been our year here. I can see waking up tomorrow to read in here that the whole thing shifted north and will draw in rain, giving us the usual 1-2 inch slop over to rain. Expand I think you may need to head to the philly forum if you want to commiserate over “not our year”. im at 26.8” on a 28” average. That includes a 14” blizzard. -4 standerd deviation west based NAO on the way. During peak snow climatology. Next weeks torch will be just another thing that makes this winter memorable. i really hope some nuke band sets up right over the heart of the met so the naysayers can look out the window and see two inch rates. At night mind you. Sticking??? Yeah everywhere.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/16/2018 at 11:06 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: They are actually Lodon Plane trees. They look like Sycamores but are more stout and have knobby bark. Sycamores grow way too large for street trees. Im not going to be confident in a forecast until I see the banding set up. Right now I like 1-8” for the city. It’s that dependent on getting into good rates 1-8"!? That even a forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 SREFS with a significant bump in snow totals. ISP mean is now 4, more north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:14 AM, Snowlover11 said: that plus people have been spoiled over the years of big storms. alot of people snooze over a 1-3/2-4/3-5 inch storm.Not me...i'm out clockin the $$ lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:34 AM, The Plowsman said: On 2/16/2018 at 11:06 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: They are actually Lodon Plane trees. They look like Sycamores but are more stout and have knobby bark. Sycamores grow way too large for street trees. Im not going to be confident in a forecast until I see the banding set up. Right now I like 1-8” for the city. It’s that dependent on getting into good rates Expand 1-8"!? That even a forecast lol Expand The safest one right now. It could easily be a car topper in the city or a blue bomb. After I see the high res short term models in the am I’ll make a more detailed call. This is one of those events where rates mean everything. Especially in manhattan which is what matters most to me personally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:33 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I think you may need to head to the philly forum if you want to commiserate over “not our year”. im at 26.8” on a 28” average. That includes a 14” blizzard. -4 standerd deviation west based NAO on the way. During peak snow climatology. Next weeks torch will be just another thing that makes this winter memorable. i really hope some nuke band sets up right over the heart of the met so the naysayers can look out the window and see two inch rates. At night mind you. Sticking??? Yeah everywhere.... Expand Yeah we are nowhere near that in my area, I think we are at 12. Are you on LI? I personally don't even pay attention to the forecast for LI, much of it's weather is irrelevant to mine, about as much as DC or Balt. It's a big forum. NJ from about Middlesex Co up through Newark and a little further northeast hasn't had a good year. Parts of the coast did well Jan 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:37 AM, weatherbear5 said: SREFS with a significant bump in snow totals. ISP mean is now 4, more north and west Expand How far NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:38 AM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The safest one right now. It could easily be a car topper in the city or a blue bomb. After I see the high res short term models in the am I’ll make a more detailed call. This is one of those events where rates mean everything. Especially in manhattan which is what matters most to me personally Expand Oh c'mon make a call. No one will tease you if you are wrong. I promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:40 AM, weatherpruf said: How far NW? Expand Mean is ~6 inches at both HPN and POU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbear5 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I'm going 3-6 on the Island, highest amounts NW Suffolk and northern Nassau. If a band sets up over someone, maybe a lollipop 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 On 2/17/2018 at 1:37 AM, The Plowsman said: On 2/17/2018 at 1:14 AM, Snowlover11 said: that plus people have been spoiled over the years of big storms. alot of people snooze over a 1-3/2-4/3-5 inch storm. Expand Not me...i'm out clockin the $$ lol Expand Even on a Sunday? Lots of people off Mon and the snow will be gone by Tues...I guess a contract's a contract, but I don't intend to bother with clean up at home unless we top 5 inches. Won't need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 SREF is 3-6 for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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