UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 8:43 PM, NJwx85 said: Looks like over an inch liquid for most of the area on the 18z NAM Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Everyone just got NAMed. Colder for all too. BL issues for coast but if the rates verified, especially at night I see no concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The NAM is likely overdone as usual, but that would be one way to maybe pull a needle from the haystack and have a decent event to the coast. The low is far enough away so that mid level warmth doesn't overwhelm, and initial boundary layer issues are overcome by heavy rates. The NAM would lose an inch or two to rain or nonaccumulating snow in the city, but that would be a decent advisory event at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 This is really unlike any other system and I can’t find any great analog. This would ordinarily track overhead NYC or maybe a bit north of that but because of the ripping flow and weakness or low pressure back across the central Great Lakes region it’s unable to really gain latitude like it otherwise would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 18z NAM depicts a 6 - 10" pasting for the north shore and similar inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I'd still go with 1/3" 2-4" N&W of the city. Nam always overdoes these things, other models don't agree. This will zip in and out too. Considering how poor things have gotten and the impending Spring wave, that would be a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:16 PM, SnoSki14 said: I'd still go with 1/3" 2-4" N&W of the city. Nam always overdoes these things, other models don't agree. This will zip in and out too. Considering how poor things have gotten and the impending Spring wave, that would be a win. Expand lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:16 PM, SnoSki14 said: I'd still go with 1/3" 2-4" N&W of the city. Nam always overdoes these things, other models don't agree. This will zip in and out too. Considering how poor things have gotten and the impending Spring wave, that would be a win. Expand euro/srefs/nam/icon/ukie all get atleast 3-5" into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 How about Feb 22, 2008 as an analog ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:25 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: euro/srefs/nam/icon/ukie all get atleast 3-5" into NYC Expand Euro isn’t 3-5” in NYC. It would probably be some slop at the end as the low departs and cools the column down. It may be overdone with the mid level warmth but most of that would be rain or mix that doesn’t accumulate. Other models are mostly colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 ICON look similiar to NAM in terms of track and temps (not precip amounts obviously)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:27 PM, Snow88 said: LOL Expand He’s so predictable lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:14 PM, NorthShoreWx said: 18z NAM depicts a 6 - 10" pasting for the north shore and similar inland. Expand yeah i think the north shore is in a great spot for at least 3-5" for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:27 PM, jm1220 said: Euro isn’t 3-5” in NYC. It would probably be some slop at the end as the low departs and cools the column down. It may be overdone with the mid level warmth but most of that would be rain or mix that doesn’t accumulate. Other models are mostly colder though. Expand we looking at same euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I still like the conservative approach, and that's why I'm sticking with my earlier call for 2-4" with lollies to 5-6". It wouldn't take much of a shift back in the other direction to lower totals significantly. I expect the models to continue to flop around for the next 24 hours, typical windshield wiper effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Final Call Inside Green - Less than 1" Inside Light Blue - 1-3" Linside Dark Blue - 2-4" Inside Red - 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS is flatter than 12z but cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The 18z GFS is still very weak, flat and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:51 PM, Snow88 said: GFS is flatter than 12z but cooler Expand The surface is 36F at 06z Sunday near KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:53 PM, NJwx85 said: The 18z GFS is still very weak, flat and warm. Expand Flatter than 12z. Could be the typical gfs bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The GFS soundings also show that the layer from 700mb to the surface is above freezing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018021518&fh=48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:54 PM, NJwx85 said: The surface is 36F at 06z Sunday near KNYC. Expand The 925 temps are cold. The surface is mid 30's because the precip is crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:56 PM, mikem81 said: The 925 temps are cold. The surface is mid 30's because the precip is crap... Expand Look at the sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:51 PM, NJwx85 said: Final Call Inside Green - Less than 1" Inside Light Blue - 1-3" Linside Dark Blue - 2-4" Inside Red - 4-6" Expand Final call more than 48 hours out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:56 PM, NJwx85 said: The GFS soundings also show that the layer from 700mb to the surface is above freezing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018021518&fh=48 Expand Doesn't matter even if it wad cold with the lack of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 9:59 PM, NJwx85 said: Look at the sounding. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Guys the GFS model is the worst model of all globals. The ukmet has a good amount of dynamic lift that would wetbulb anything into heavy snow just as depicted by icon and nam. Euro is usually good but does not do well with dynamically fast pattern systems. I think the globals are going to catch up the intensity of this system. You will get a heavy 6 hour window of 1-2 hour rates. I don’t think NYC mixes at all. I think Cape Cod and eastern fork may taint a bit but this will be so dynamic though very fast moving that you’ll get good snow ratios. 10:1-15:1. it is February so storms tend to have more dynamics in the upper atmospheres and this is why it does warm up a bit but it is the snowiest month for that reason. Think of the warmer seasons when we get 2 inch thunderstorms! I think the jackpot here is Central Park up to Mahopac and east towards New Haven, CT, Providence could pick up 8-10 also. I think Central Park gets 5-8 inches out of this. All the models will start picking up the more intense system as we get closer especially the short term models. What pisses me off is wrong information. And there’s a lot of misinformation on this thread. Euro is showing 3-5 for NYC, If you don’t know the basics of dynamically and evaporative cooling please read more and post less! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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