WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 Discuss it away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 EPS mean has 2-4" for the Northern 2/3rds of the region. This system has high bust potential in both directions, and extreme caution should be exercised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 18z Nam is cold for all snow for the coast and inland areas. Low goes off the Del marva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cuzin Mike Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 What’s the thoughts on ratios? Is 10 to 1 possible with the temps being as high as they will he prior to Sat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 8:50 PM, Cuzin Mike said: What’s the thoughts on ratios? Is 10 to 1 possible with the temps being as high as they will he prior to Sat? Expand Ratios may be lower than 10:1 but not because of Saturday afternoon's temps which will actually be below average Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 8:50 PM, Snow88 said: 18z Nam is cold for all snow for the coast and inland areas. Low goes off the Del marva. Expand That's as good as it's going to get. Seriously man looks like it could drop a solid 8 inches of snow by the end of the storm. At 84hrs it's snowing heavily overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 9:24 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: That's as good as it's going to get. Seriously man looks like it could drop a solid 8 inches of snow by the end of the storm. At 84hrs it's snowing heavily overhead. Expand While it’s not impossible, let’s go with 2-5” right now. upton is onboard with all snow even for the coast. That’s good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 GFS says partly cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 18z GFS - the run nobody saw coming lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 10:06 PM, RedSky said: 18z GFS - the run nobody saw coming lol Expand while the 12Z GEFS showed this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 I could see 3-6” or so if things end up favorable. I’m not sure I would go above 10-1 for ratios given marginal temps especially near the coast. It’ll be a heavy wet type snow. But it’s still too soon to say if this really happens or if it trends warmer/weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 On 2/14/2018 at 10:06 PM, RedSky said: 18z GFS - the run nobody saw coming lol Expand I wouldn’t say I saw it coming but I did tell folks in the SNE forum that this is the type of system the GFS being more west and north on at this range meant nothing. I’ve seen the GFS not follow its usual progressive tendency on these before beyond Day 3 when the Euro and CMC are flatter. The GFS is probably now adjusting to its usual flatter tendency. It’s about where you’d expect it given the other models at this time now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Icon is a good hit! GFS is way south that model is the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 CMC is also a good hit but slightly weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The 0z RGEM was also a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 3:59 AM, Snow88 said: CMC is also a good hit but slightly weaker Expand How good? We need something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Ukmets a great hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Euro has a few inches for the whole area Gfs and Nam has rain for the coast and snow inland Model wars Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Upton has 2-4 inches for the whole area in their snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 ICON a solid hit. This looks to be a quick moving system with lots of moisture and rain snow line close to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tosh Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Anything at this point is a bonus. And most likely just an apitizer for the potential big show after next weeks torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 12:44 PM, Snow88 said: Euro has a few inches for the whole area Gfs and Nam has rain for the coast and snow inland Model wars Expand The GFS has rain purely based on thinking the boundary layrt with a 6 knot south wind is too warm. It may be the case for central and eastern Long Island but unless we see a much further northwest track than the GFS has at 06Z that’s probably all snow for the 5 boroughs. No layer is even close to 0C except the BL which is like 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM is better for the coast this run. A couple inches vs nothing at 6z. 3 to 6 inland. Looks like this will be in and out in 6 to 8 hours. Correction the 6" line stretches from the Bronx back into central nj but a very sharp cutoff south and east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 2:45 PM, Stormlover74 said: NAM is better for the coast this run. A couple inches vs nothing at 6z. 3 to 6 inland. Looks like this will be in and out in 6 to 8 hours. Correction the 6" line stretches from the Bronx back into central nj but a very sharp cutoff south and east of there. Expand Even most of Long Island gets a 3 to 6 inch snowfall on the 12z NAM. Much colder run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Nice snow event on the German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 3:41 PM, Snow88 said: Nice snow event on the GermanPost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The GFS is pretty flat. Less than 0.25" QPF NW of the city, not much more for points to the South and East, and you have some boundary layer issues too. Still think I wouldn't go much higher than 2-4" for anyone in this sub-forum. Someone could pull off 5-6" but I think that's isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 On 2/15/2018 at 3:45 PM, The Plowsman said: On 2/15/2018 at 3:41 PM, Snow88 said: Nice snow event on the German Expand Post? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 CMC is weaker and has 1-3/2-4 areawide now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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