ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Box went with 4-6 across the board with their latest update, except for the islands Prob safest call for now...no need to blow it up into solid warning criteria this early and with a system that is so fast moving...one little kink the wrong way could easily turn a 6-9" event into 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan going 5-10” Now that is called throwing the hammer down....he's feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Sugarloaf1989 said: Just don't get creepy. 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Lmao....right. How ridiculous. I get it, the pattern sucks, but if we can sneak a decent snow event in, then that's a win win for all of us. I don't care if it melts two days later or the same day, the fun for me is tracking the event and watching it fall and accumulate. I go find the snow to ride on anyway, so if it's not on the ground here that's fine with me. And I get the guys who like the pack idea...so to each their own. Hope we pull off a decent event Saturday night and Sunday morning. I was just kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Now that is called throwing the hammer down....he's feeling this one. Well it’s what he was texting earlier. I haven’t seen official one on air yet. Maybe 4-8” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Now that is called throwing the hammer down....he's feeling this one. Yeah...10"? Maybe he actually went 3-6" and Kevin is just bumping it for him as a courtesy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I think 4-8 seems fairly reasonable ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 I think this thing has a narrow band over production collocated (most likely) with what is pretty clearly going to be a frontogen type banding - maybe concentric ..one along Rt 2 and the other around HFD to S. Bos ... that sort of thing. I think also the non-hydros have a better handle on this with their better resolved llv thickness/thermal packing S of LI probably offering the best location for surface low track ... Some hints by other global version to go this direction is damning to the GFS on this one... So, with that said, I think a 8 to 9" stripe or two ...I just wouldn't be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yeah...10"? Maybe he actually went 3-6" and Kevin is just bumping it for him as a courtesy. IF it evolves like the NAM or even the Euro shows, then someone will prob be around 10" in that type of banding. Really classic look for some instability embedded in the very strong ML fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Interested to see what the typical out to left field 18 z GFS comes up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: IF it evolves like the NAM or even the Euro shows, then someone will prob be around 10" in that type of banding. Really classic look for some instability embedded in the very strong ML fronto. Those soundings are very unstable, love the look, definitely will stay up for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Those soundings are very unstable, love the look, definitely will stay up for this one Big fatties on my deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 If you do the overview on NAM BUFKIT and look at equivalent potential temp, you have some folded theta surfaces which is a sign of instability and cold air in this pocket. You even have elevated CAPE in the snow growth zone. Pretty weenie-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 15 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Yeah...10"? Maybe he actually went 3-6" and Kevin is just bumping it for him as a courtesy. 10" for TAN. You know, where it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Why is it called a little critter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3km NAM is a good hit too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, Whineminster said: Why is it called a little critter? TMI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GFS Is flatter than 12z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 FIRST CALL: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.ug/2018/02/clipper-system-offers-sneak-preview-of.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: FIRST CALL: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.ug/2018/02/clipper-system-offers-sneak-preview-of.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Refresh my memory...is it ever going to now again? On noes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I have 4-8 statewide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: I have 4-8 statewide DIT index +2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Looks like the GFS is keeping the 2 s/w's separated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Refresh my memory...is it ever going to now again? On noes! Kid is in Uganda making forecasts...what a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: DIT index +2. +22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Gfs being very stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Gfs being very stubborn. It's keeping the base of the shortwave kind of rounded...it actually tracks the vortmax further north than other guidance. It will cave most likely once we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It's keeping the base of the shortwave kind of rounded...it actually tracks the vortmax further north than other guidance. It will cave most likely once we get closer. Yeah I'm sure it will cave. I was actually going to go with 5-10 but was a bit gun shy after seeing the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Yet it’s still incorporated in forecasts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Yeah much more flatter than other guidance at H5. Interesting difference so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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