Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Anyone want to give an official timing of this event? A best guess that is Starts pre-dawn Sunday and goes thru the AM and ends by early afternoon, This is for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 what the hell is the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Starts pre-dawn Sunday and goes thru the AM and ends by early afternoon, This is for our area. That’s slow. You’re snowing by 10Pm and over by 8:00 am. Sun by 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Starts pre-dawn Sunday and goes thru the AM and ends by early afternoon, This is for our area. Seems slow. Probably 10pm-6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: what the hell is the ICON? German model....it scores a lot worse than the nogaps. It's pretty useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: what the hell is the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Holy crap at 12z NAM....lol NAM gone wild! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You must be looking at an old ICON run ah, yup - affirmative. but either scenario's still on the table... The NAM so far looks a perhaps a little deeper at 60 hours with the wave for the general reader - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Better northern stream vort on that run, Warning snows to the NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Holy crap at 12z NAM....lol NAM gone wild! Little critter with deadly venom? I think one of the most deadliest organisms in the world is a jelly fish that can fit in a thimble - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM is a burial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 If you notice to even those that are borderline on the Cape ar predominately snow on the Nam especially the upper Cape. It’s fairly cold a loft and with deep lift into the snow growth region you’re going to help wetbulb things to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM beyond 24 hours....so take with a grain of salt. But it does show the potential with this vigorous little system. You track that nice compact vortmax just underneath SNE like that from NYC to the Cape, then you're looking at extremely intense ML fronto banding and prob some CSI thrown in there too. Exceptionally heavy snowfall rates for a few hours under that dynamic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Well lock it in as I won’t be around, boy this looks like a very picturesque snowfall too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I would certainly take what Nammy is selling. Wowsa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Just now, CoastalWx said: Well lock it in as I won’t be around, boy this looks like a very picturesque snowfall too. Maine, right? Whereabouts in Maine? At least you'll see pack up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM beyond 24 hours....so take with a grain of salt. But it does show the potential with this vigorous little system. You track that nice compact vortmax just underneath SNE like that from NYC to the Cape, then you're looking at extremely intense ML fronto banding and prob some CSI thrown in there too. Exceptionally heavy snowfall rates for a few hours under that dynamic setup. It’s been showing a little unstable/-EPV layer for awhile too. Pretty good height falls in 12 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Maine, right? Whereabouts in Maine? At least you'll see pack up there. Srn Maine. Ogunquit. Should be snow there Sunday morning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 We're seeing increasing interaction with the PV over time on guidance. I think we can see this UL vort consolidate more and the H5 shortwave amp up even further from what the 12z Nam is showing...But I think 12z NAM is pretty close to showing the max potential for this little guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Srn Maine. Ogunquit. Should be snow there Sunday morning though. Oh yeah, they'll get some. Prob not as much as back home, but should be nice...good town to be in during currier and ives snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: We're seeing increasing interaction with the PV over time on guidance. I think we can see this UL vort consolidate more and the H5 shortwave amp up even further from what the 12z Nam is showing...But I think 12z NAM is pretty close to showing the max potential for this little guy... still think this goes north and impacts NNE to to PV interaction? This still looks like a 6 hour storm to me, extremely fast flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Buying "all in" on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: still think this goes north and impacts NNE to to PV interaction? This still looks like a 6 hour storm to me, extremely fast flow. It's a quick hitter, but the flow is not extremely fast. Disturbance won't gain much latitude beyond what the 12z NAM shows. Flow is too zonal. That said, going forward we can see this "slow" a bit further off the NE coast, as the 12z NAM shows a bit of a negative tilt developing...Negative tilt would help alter the trajectory and broaden impacts, giving a slightly longer duration. I don't think this is gaining much latitude beyond what the 12z NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 The 32k NAM is an absolute nuke. Prob a foot in like 7-9 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM beyond 24 hours....so take with a grain of salt. But it does show the potential with this vigorous little system. You track that nice compact vortmax just underneath SNE like that from NYC to the Cape, then you're looking at extremely intense ML fronto banding and prob some CSI thrown in there too. Exceptionally heavy snowfall rates for a few hours under that dynamic setup. it's starting to remind me a little of 2005, Dec ... The same potency at mid levels is not there [yet?], but,... the idea of running a difluence axis right over top a seriously compressed llv thickness gradient (thus maximizing UVM) is reasonably analogous as a singular component in a system comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The 32k NAM is an absolute nuke. Prob a foot in like 7-9 hours Isn't the 32 the exact same as the 12 at a higher resolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Extended reggie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, jbenedet said: It's a quick hitter, but the flow is not extremely fast. Disturbance won't gain much latitude beyond what the 12z NAM shows. Flow is too zonal. That said, going forward we can see this "slow" a bit further off the NE coast, as the 12z NAM shows a bit of a negative tilt developing...Negative tilt would help alter the trajectory and broaden impacts, giving a slightly longer duration. I don't think this is gaining much latitude beyond what the 12z NAM shows. Mmm... this one may not? Buuut conceptually/synoptically, I'm not sure I agree with the absolute tenor of this bold statement We are just starting to sample this thing on the 12z initialization over western Canada and so forth.. If it gets more potent it will roll out a little more lead side s/w ridging which could easily trigger a synoptic feed-back/mean a 100 miles N(S) adjustment in deep layer track in closer hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Not much further N this can come with the low north of the lakes speeding through, actually a benefit of having a low there for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well lock it in as I won’t be around, boy this looks like a very picturesque snowfall too. Better snap pics as it’ll melt by dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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