NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Euro looks good for the weekend... Yup. Solid 4-6/6-8 storm. Most SEMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 06z NAM looks solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6z gfs caving... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Nice hit on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Yep, steady as she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Nice hit on the gfs still need another couple bumps north for GC to DS. Lots of time--and reason to feel optimistic it can do so. Not much of anything to keep it from doing so. If at 00z or 12z tomorrow we see unified tics north, confidence will build. For now, we wait. I'm anticipating I lose my snow cover today. At least it will be nice to go for a walk. 30.7* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Noyes going 2-4” for SNE. Chance for 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4-8" snowfall..pretty straightforward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Icon with a solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 4-8" snowfall..pretty straightforwardBut u said no more snow this month. Did u mean nne?Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 11 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The way I see the GFS, it gives these wild scenarios from days 5-6 that are either amped or suppressed than just when we think we see it lock on, it goes the other way, only to start the slow march north in track. I win Yahtzee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Once again good use of ensembles. Stay the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Navy caved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 but wasn't the gfs a good hit like 3 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Good snow growth showing up, too bad its flying cuz it has juice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 13 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said: but wasn't the gfs a good hit like 3 days ago? It was late to the party then and will be late again. Nothing has changed for coastals and GFS in decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: 4-8" snowfall..pretty straightforward What are the thoughts of timing at this point...start to end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: It was late to the party then and will be late again. Nothing has changed for coastals and GFS in decades. so it seems like this model produces epic fantasy blizzards in the long range (really dramatic weather) for one. two it seems that it always "looses" any kind of winter event only to eventually come back although even right up to go time for feb 13 it only had a moderate event for sne isn't this kind of a major flaw?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 41 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: What are the thoughts of timing at this point...start to end? 7:00 pm- 6:00 Am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Could be rather wet snow in SE areas. Very little wind too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 folks are focused on inches like an sex addict at a nympho convention ... but, I think the more interesting Meteorology (deterministic) was exposed by the fact that the non-hydrostatic model forms are the ones that appear to have offered the more impact solutions in the recent cycle(s). In fact, that ICON model brings chagrin cold rain to Brockton over to Providence at this point, with heavy snow pushed all the way to Rutland Vt... Not sure about this model as my experience with it is too young - so far it seems pretty variant run to run though but that's preliminary. I haven't seen any statistics on the subject matter. The NAM coming NW [I think] has some theoretical basis for doing so, in that tracking the frontal lay-down position in the blend of the guidance (self and elsewhere) tends to put the best baroclinic axis roughly the VA Capes to 70 mi or so S of ACK... The low should want to track near that axis, tho perhaps biased NW by a few 10s of miles owing to cyclongenic mechanics forcing bending the frontal tapestry and so forth as it ripples along. That's because of the best thermal gradient from the nascent CAA tomorrow tending to term in that vicinity so when UVM forcing moves into the vicinity ... the steeper frontal slopes blah blah blah... Still a 'little critter' ...though I put it a hybrid more proper synoptic scaled interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Wondering what anyone's thoughts are on this map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 6 minutes ago, DFRI said: Wondering what anyone's thoughts are on this map. Looks a bit low for interior SE MA over to N RI and E CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 20 minutes ago, DFRI said: Wondering what anyone's thoughts are on this map. What's this based upon? There's limited information provided on that graphic the tells the user what and most importantly 'how' that graphic is materialized. Is it drafted at an interns desk? Is it the Euro model? Is it both... Is it the ICON model...the NAM... all the above. I suppose the best guess of what that product reflects is their total (as in ...all N-term source/ N-terms) probabilities for this weekend gig, but it would be nice if the caption said so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 7:00 pm- 6:00 Am No. 6:45 to 4:58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What's this based upon? There's limited information provided on that graphic the tells the user what and most importantly 'how' that graphic is materialized. Is it drafted at an interns desk? Is it the Euro model? Is it both... Is it the ICON model...the NAM... all the above. I suppose the best guess of what that product reflects is their total (as in ...all N-term source/ N-terms) probabilities for this weekend gig, but it would be nice if the caption said so. they still use Garmin, nuff said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Anyone want to give an official timing of this event? A best guess that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: In fact, that ICON model brings chagrin cold rain to Brockton over to Providence at this point, with heavy snow pushed all the way to Rutland Vt... Not sure about this model as my experience with it is too young - so far it seems pretty variant run to run though but that's preliminary. I haven't seen any statistics on the subject matter. Still a 'little critter' ...though I put it a hybrid more proper synoptic scaled interest. You must be looking at an old ICON run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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