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Sunday the 18th ... storm idea/early thoughts...


Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Nice hit on the gfs

still need another couple bumps north for GC to DS.  Lots of time--and reason to feel optimistic it can do so.  Not much of anything to keep it from doing so.  If at  00z or 12z tomorrow  we see unified tics north, confidence will build.  For now, we wait.

I'm anticipating I lose my snow cover today.  At least it will be nice to go for a walk.

30.7*

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was late to the party then and will be late again.   Nothing has changed for coastals and GFS in decades.

so it seems like this model produces epic fantasy blizzards in the long range (really dramatic weather) for one.

two it seems that it always "looses" any kind of winter event only to eventually come back although even right up to go time for feb 13 it only had a moderate event for sne

isn't this kind of a major flaw??

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folks are focused on inches like an sex addict at a nympho convention ... but, I think the more interesting Meteorology (deterministic) was exposed by the fact that the non-hydrostatic model forms are the ones that appear to have offered the more impact solutions in the recent cycle(s). 

In fact, that ICON model brings chagrin cold rain to Brockton over to Providence at this point, with heavy snow pushed all the way to Rutland Vt... Not sure about this model as my experience with it is too young - so far it seems pretty variant run to run though but that's preliminary. I haven't seen any statistics on the subject matter.  

The NAM coming NW [I think] has some theoretical basis for doing so, in that tracking the frontal lay-down position in the blend of the guidance (self and elsewhere) tends to put the best baroclinic axis roughly the VA Capes to 70 mi or so S of ACK... The low should want to track near that axis, tho perhaps biased NW by a few 10s of miles owing to cyclongenic mechanics forcing bending the frontal tapestry and so forth as it ripples along.  That's because of the best thermal gradient from the nascent CAA tomorrow tending to term in that vicinity so when UVM forcing moves into the vicinity ... the steeper frontal slopes blah blah blah...

Still a 'little critter' ...though I put it a hybrid more proper synoptic scaled interest.    

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20 minutes ago, DFRI said:

Wondering what anyone's thoughts are on this map.

 

 

Snow probability map.jpg

What's this based upon? 

There's limited information provided on that graphic the tells the user what and most importantly 'how' that graphic is materialized.  

Is it drafted at an interns desk?  Is it the Euro model?  Is it both... Is it the ICON model...the NAM... all the above.  

I suppose the best guess of what that product reflects is their total (as in ...all N-term source/ N-terms) probabilities for this weekend gig, but it would be nice if the caption said so. 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What's this based upon? 

There's limited information provided on that graphic the tells the user what and most importantly 'how' that graphic is materialized.  

Is it drafted at an interns desk?  Is it the Euro model?  Is it both... Is it the ICON model...the NAM... all the above.  

I suppose the best guess of what that product reflects is their total (as in ...all N-term source/ N-terms) probabilities for this weekend gig, but it would be nice if the caption said so. 

they still use Garmin, nuff said

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43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

In fact, that ICON model brings chagrin cold rain to Brockton over to Providence at this point, with heavy snow pushed all the way to Rutland Vt... Not sure about this model as my experience with it is too young - so far it seems pretty variant run to run though but that's preliminary. I haven't seen any statistics on the subject matter.  

 

Still a 'little critter' ...though I put it a hybrid more proper synoptic scaled interest.    

You must be looking at an old ICON run

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_24.png

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