SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 The GFS clearly has no idea on this storm. I had said earlier today that with systems that aren’t Miller As or Miller Bs such as SWFEs we often see the GFS be too far northwest vs it’s usual tendency to be biased SE. There is still a better chance this misses than it gives everyone rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I'm not sure it's that ridiculous. Many good winters in SE MA featured good winters in the Berks too. Anyways, NAM is a nuke. The thing is the coastal sections are definitely an all or nothing type climate. You guys probably average just as many 6"+ or 8"+ events a winter as the interior, if not more than interior valleys. The coastal plain area doesn't really nickel and dime...it's like a few weeks without an event and then you get a 6-10 incher. Meanwhile the Berkshire spots have been getting some events and tickling the annual tally up...but as soon as the next 6"+ event comes for the coastal plain everyone seems to forget the multiple wintry events inland that may have been a mixed bag or only a few inches followed by sleet while the coast was raining. The highlands get some good events for sure but in terms of percentage of annual climate snow that comes from 6"+ events, the areas within 50 miles of the coast wins hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 26 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS clearly has no idea on this storm. I had said earlier today that with systems that aren’t Miller As or Miller Bs such as SWFEs we often see the GFS be too far northwest vs it’s usual tendency to be biased SE. There is still a better chance this misses than it gives everyone rain I agree I think a miss is an option. I thought the other day it wasn't though. Gefs is further north than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 32 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The GFS clearly has no idea on this storm. I had said earlier today that with systems that aren’t Miller As or Miller Bs such as SWFEs we often see the GFS be too far northwest vs it’s usual tendency to be biased SE. There is still a better chance this misses than it gives everyone rain This is within the ensemble spread of both the EPS and GEFS, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 18z GEFS look like garbage when compared to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2018 Share Posted February 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z GEFS look like garbage when compared to the 12z. It generally always follows the Op these days once you’re inside Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 38 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 18z GEFS look like garbage when compared to the 12z. North of the OP I presume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 12 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: North of the OP I presume? They are. Just pointing out what they show. The way I see the GFS, it gives these wild scenarios from days 5-6 that are either amped or suppressed than just when we think we see it lock on, it goes the other way, only to start the slow march north in track. That's what I think we just saw with the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Navy continues to be on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 TWC is obviously going with the GFS as they are calling for just some flurries early Sunday AM around these parts. One of the few times I have seen them disregard the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: TWC is obviously going with the GFS as they are calling for just some flurries early Sunday AM around these parts. One of the few times I have seen them disregard the Euro. Either could be right. It’s a coin flip at this point. Maybe Friday 12z we can begin to narrow it down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 Looks like a pretty good wave coming thru the west on this run hour 60 will see where it goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 NAM is fairly good south of the pike. It was weaker with the nrn stream s/w coming out of the Plains though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Pretty sweet parameters though. Rather unstable aloft near the s coast and some good lift in the DGZ well to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 IConnic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IConnic! Crushing for all of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Gfs whiffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Crushing for all of New England. Little warm but nice. GGEM with a nice track for my hood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs whiffs Came North a ton. It's on its way back. This could be a cement storm, very spring like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Gfs a bit north of 18z but a graze for the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 LOL, GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Came North a ton. It's on its way back. This could be a cement storm, very spring like. Eh. Precip shield is a bit north but it doesn’t look like a big change at all to me. Prob not right... but interesting that it’s been a whiff for a few runs but now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 48 minutes ago, weathafella said: Crushing for all of New England. ‘Crushing’ is 2-4” for most of sne.....we have fell on hard times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Canadian looks worse than 12z Still decent though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Lets see if the Euro "caves" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 GEFS still looked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 5 minutes ago, BRSno said: Lets see if the Euro "caves" Not based on the UKMET it won’t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 I am riding the Mercedes.... until it blows a gasket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 7 hours ago, powderfreak said: The thing is the coastal sections are definitely an all or nothing type climate. You guys probably average just as many 6"+ or 8"+ events a winter as the interior, if not more than interior valleys. The coastal plain area doesn't really nickel and dime...it's like a few weeks without an event and then you get a 6-10 incher. Meanwhile the Berkshire spots have been getting some events and tickling the annual tally up...but as soon as the next 6"+ event comes for the coastal plain everyone seems to forget the multiple wintry events inland that may have been a mixed bag or only a few inches followed by sleet while the coast was raining. The highlands get some good events for sure but in terms of percentage of annual climate snow that comes from 6"+ events, the areas within 50 miles of the coast wins hands down. I'd rather do it coastal style. No doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 15, 2018 Share Posted February 15, 2018 Euro looks good for the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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