jbenedet Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 31/13 here, and temp already falling. Def not seeing antecedent airmass issues for this guy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Euro is a nice hit for a lot of you...0.5"+ for pretty much all of SNE it looks like. 0.70" or more from BDL to BOS and south. Nice look even for Pit2. Looks better than GC. Hopefully the models are trying to catch up to realities that may be even further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Surprised to see BOS top out at 33 today. 32/16 there right now. Cold def overperformed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Tomorrow's melt back rate might be almost as impressive.. This has that classic spring look of the sun coming out and the temp exploding in quiet wind field. Cobalt blue skies erupting by noon ...but, typically it's a late March thing. This is early for that sort of thing, but it is what it is... Gutters running hard in the afternoon... maybe - certainly on Monday. I just think it's a fascinating week on whole. Snow storm to early summer... then, quite possibly back ...although, I'm starting to wonder on how quick that return will really be. GEFS has the AO and NAO tanking by end of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Surprised to see BOS top out at 33 today. 32/16 there right now. Cold def overperformed today. Seabreeze and evap cooling. It was 40 inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Surprised to see BOS top out at 33 today. 32/16 there right now. Cold def overperformed today. BOS had a light SE wind. Evap cooling FTW with cold SSTs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Seabreeze and evap cooling. It was 40 inland. ORH is 34/9 and BOS 32/16 right now. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 HRRR and RAP aren't really biting yet for overnight. They are ok but not like euro or rgem or some of these other bigger solutions. Still outside their wheelhouse though so we will see what they say 3-6 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 new NAM backs off a tad... at least per TT QPF... prolly a now cast thing at this point though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I was up to 38-down to 31 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: new NAM backs off a tad... at least per TT QPF... prolly a now cast thing at this point though Yeah def backed off from 12z. That would be more like a 3-6" type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 All guidance hinting at a late push. What’s that about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 15z SREF plumes pretty much are spot on at 6'' for a good chunk of the region, a tad less out by Boston and even the most extreme members are upwards of 10'' or so. A 4-8'' forecast range for this event is a pretty solid and safe bet. I doubt we'll see many totals above 8'' unless someone rips close to 2'' per hour for a good couple hours or they slant stick. Thankfully (for forecasting purposes) the upper end of the ceiling is not very high and is very close to the mean for totals but I guess for like central New England the lower end of the ceiling is much lower than it is say down this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, weathafella said: All guidance hinting at a late push. What’s that about? Tries a pop a bit before it moves east. Could be a little finale in eastern zones up into southern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The Euro has been steadfast throughout, so I'm paying little attention to the ups and downs of the wanna-be kings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 21 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Surprised to see BOS top out at 33 today. 32/16 there right now. Cold def overperformed today. Hit 40F here. DP in the low teens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Just now, 78Blizzard said: The Euro has been steadfast throughout, so I'm paying little attention to the ups and downs of the wanna-be kings. Well the euro def bumped up at 12z. Previously it was hammering the consistent 3-6/4-7 idea for most of SNE while the GFS and GGEM were screwing around with 1-3" at times. Now the euro is def saying go higher. Go 6-9 or so with lollis to 10". Other guidance def bumped at 12z too so the euro isn't all that suspect. The limiting factor in this is definitely speed as has been mentioned already. But if this tries to squirt a little east on us then we could def be back to a 3-5 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Tries a pop a bit before it moves east. Could be a little finale in eastern zones up into southern Maine. there is a moderate snow ball rollin' east through n-central IL ... appears associated with the actual v-max... The stuff peelin' up out ahead is probably WAA driven.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: HRRR and RAP aren't really biting yet for overnight. They are ok but not like euro or rgem or some of these other bigger solutions. Still outside their wheelhouse though so we will see what they say 3-6 hours from now. Thought the 16z run was the closest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: there is a moderate snow ball rollin' east through n-central IL ... appears associated with the actual v-max... The stuff peelin' up out ahead is probably WAA driven.. Yeah the models are showing the snow trying to "hang back" a bit predawn tomorrow morning as the vortmax goes in a perfect spot for us...you can kind of see an inverted trough trying to hang back too as the sfc low escapes east. That's sometimes a red flag that models may be trying to shut down the steady precip a little too quick. It is too bad this thing doesn't get captured by the vigorous vortmax. If it did we'd prob be talking 3" per hour thundersnow type stuff....it would still be hauling along but the dynamics would be excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the models are showing the snow trying to "hang back" a bit predawn tomorrow morning as the vortmax goes in a perfect spot for us...you can kind of see an inverted trough trying to hang back too as the sfc low escapes east. That's sometimes a red flag that models may be trying to shut down the steady precip a little too quick. It is too bad this thing doesn't get captured by the vigorous vortmax. If it did we'd prob be talking 3" per hour thundersnow type stuff....it would still be hauling along but the dynamics would be excellent. Funny you mention that ... I was thinking that a while ago, but that the obnoxiously fast nature to the flow is exceeding 'detonation rates' - if you will. .. the low ends up doing the NJ model bombing just too far east of the Cape in the guidance. hm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Looks like the 18z NAM develops closed 850 circulation a tad earlier...too bad its just a quite a bit south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Current radar shows precip well ahead of where 18z 12k NAM shows it at 20z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Current radar shows precip well ahead of where 18z 12k NAM shows it at 20z. Do the observations verify the radar vs virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Do the observations verify the radar vs virga? Looks like some stations in western PA reporting precip but nothing further east that I can find Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 If that is indeed WAA driven which seems to be the case it's no surprise the models were too slow with it. Models always seem to be way too slow with the onset of WAA induced precip. You can almost never forecast it happening early enough. Granted the air over us is still very dry but models do saturate things very quickly as we move into the evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, weathafella said: Do the observations verify the radar vs virga? 20-30 DBZ into MD and DE and E central PA. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said: 20-30 DBZ into MD and DE and E central PA. https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=lwx&product=N0R&loop=yes What are the obs under it? Edit-moderate snow at BWI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Driving to work tomorrow morning at 645.... hopefully this is mostly a wrap by then... in early and out early hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, weathafella said: What are the obs under it? Edit-moderate snow at BWI! Reading PA reporting snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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