HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nothing to stress about here. Been like this for days. Snow growth looks good. 4-8” with lollies to 10” along 84. Enjoy. I do think N of Pike W of Worcester Co. is going to be victimized by less than stellar rates and marginal snow growth. Waking up and only seeing 2" otg is not going to shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Diane I think you may be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 We snow even here in srn ME. I’ll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 interesting little under-the-radar environmental aspect to this deal... we are getting some unadulterated bright sun pretty pervasively... and temps are responding. DPs, however, remain very deeply depressed and given to the nascent quality of this air mass, ...probably that's at depth in the sounding. So, it's kind of like one of those razor thin "fake" warmth layers you get in spring. This is at the colder end of a spectrum of event-types that are common in spring ...where the surface belies the real potential lurking and dictated just off the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 At least for CT I'm not totally wowed by the snow growth. It's decent but I dunno. There's a bit of drying later in the event in the SGZ and even before that the best omega is a bit displaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 11 minutes ago, CT Rain said: At least for CT I'm not totally wowed by the snow growth. It's decent but I dunno. There's a bit of drying later in the event in the SGZ and even before that the best omega is a bit displaced. If I remember correctly Ryan, you weren’t completely wowed by the snowgrowth potentials back on December 9th either, and that turned out to be a pretty good event for a lot of the area...with very good snowgrowth. This upcoming event has been reminding me of that one a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Debbie’s gonna down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Diane I think you may be ok. I could go either way. I won't be surprised if I get 6 inches of paste, but I also know I could be rain or white rain. I think that because this is happening at night, I may have a better chance of being snow...but with a southerly component to the wind, that never bodes well for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, CT Rain said: At least for CT I'm not totally wowed by the snow growth. It's decent but I dunno. There's a bit of drying later in the event in the SGZ and even before that the best omega is a bit displaced. IDK this post kind of baffled me. Really can't get much better than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 21 minutes ago, CT Rain said: At least for CT I'm not totally wowed by the snow growth. It's decent but I dunno. There's a bit of drying later in the event in the SGZ and even before that the best omega is a bit displaced. Are you concerned about some mixing anywhere along the CT coast, say Groton/New London area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK this post kind of baffled me. Really can't get much better than this It’s not bad, but it can definitely be better. Slide that DGZ around those purple bars of high omega. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: IDK this post kind of baffled me. Really can't get much better than this lol except almost all the omega is below the DGZ. Nice MAUL there though - most of the models do not have that in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Are you concerned about some mixing anywhere along the CT coast, say Groton/New London area? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: It’s not bad, but it can definitely be better. Slide that DGZ around those purple bars of high omega. You can also see some dry air at the top of the DGZ. That is not a wild snow growth look IMO. It's adequate but it wouldn't make me go crazy high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 40 minutes ago, CT Rain said: At least for CT I'm not totally wowed by the snow growth. It's decent but I dunno. There's a bit of drying later in the event in the SGZ and even before that the best omega is a bit displaced. Bufkit soundings do show a major drop in snowgrowth but looked like maybe around 4z or so? I was concerned about this as well but I think that should happen after the majority of the heaviest snow already falls. Perhaps this prevents 7-8'' totals but I do like (on the NAM at least) how the strongest 700mb fronto juxtaposes well with the highest 700mb VV's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 You know what I can seem to never remember or understand...on bufkit when you overly snowgrowth the yellow and purple countours and their significance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I do think N of Pike W of Worcester Co. is going to be victimized by less than stellar rates and marginal snow growth. Waking up and only seeing 2" otg is not going to shock me. Certainly within the margin of error, sure. 7 minutes ago, CT Rain said: You can also see some dry air at the top of the DGZ. That is not a wild snow growth look IMO. It's adequate but it wouldn't make me go crazy high. wrf soundings look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 12z suite looks really good so far. Most have half inch qpf to pike now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 Gonna be some good banding too with that vigorous H5 s/w sliding right over south coast. So north of that into MA and even S NH could get a weenie band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: You know what I can seem to never remember or understand...on bufkit when you overly snowgrowth the yellow and purple countours and their significance. those are the temperature contours for optimal snow growth within the layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 HREF FTW. Remarkable consistency between the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 The exact numbers are -12 to -18C i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I would take the 12z GFS and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: HREF FTW. Remarkable consistency between the models. They’ve bumped up since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Wouldn't be totally shocking inside good banding. The snow growth depths are very good. Though obviously the higher the QPF, the harder it is to go 20 to 1. But I wouldn't be completely shocked at double digit lollis inside some good bands where like 0.5-0.6 qpf falls. IDK why Ryan is worried about snow growth. His boxing day melt still affects him to this day. 180218/0100Z 13 12005KT 30.5F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0 180218/0200Z 14 13005KT 31.0F SNOW 12:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.076 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0 180218/0300Z 15 13006KT 31.9F SNOW 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.095 12:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.20 100| 0| 0 180218/0400Z 16 14006KT 32.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104 11:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0 180218/0500Z 17 11004KT 32.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.100 11:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40 100| 0| 0 180218/0600Z 18 06003KT 32.1F SNOW 11:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074 11:1| 5.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 180218/0700Z 19 05003KT 32.1F SNOW 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 11:1| 5.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 100| 0| 0 180218/0800Z 20 36003KT 32.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 11:1| 6.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.58 100| 0| 0 180218/0900Z 21 32004KT 32.3F SNOW 23:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.052 12:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.63 100| 0| 0 180218/1000Z 22 31006KT 32.3F SNOW 25:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 13:1| 8.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.69 100| 0| 0 180218/1100Z 23 31007KT 32.1F SNOW 10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046 13:1| 9.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.73 100| 0| 0 180218/1200Z 24 30009KT 31.0F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 13:1| 9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 29 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: The exact numbers are -12 to -18C i believe I do know that the optimal temperatures are between -12C and -18C so for like purple contours you have 0, 5, 10 and then starting at 15 they become yellow contours. So is what you're saying each contour is the temperature you want intersecting that contour for optimal snow growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 That HREF is pretty cold too right to the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 I'd give this like a B to B+ look. Best omega is slightly outside the optimal DGZ but not by much. Guessing this is fluff up here that melts off the roads by like 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 17, 2018 Share Posted February 17, 2018 One big difference between the NAM/GFS is when the 850mb low develops and when we see a closed off circulation. Normally when forecasting amounts upwards of 8'' I would like to see development/closed contours much earlier, however, I think there are other processes which could overcome this such as really strong fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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